New Zealand v Italy preview: All Blacks to make statement of intent with solid victory against Azzurri

David Skippers
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New Zealand flanker Shannon Frizell and Italy fly-half Paolo Garbisi.

There will be plenty at stake when New Zealand and Italy go head-to-head in their highly anticipated Rugby World Cup Pool A showdown in Lyon on Friday.

With the global showpiece’s business end fast approaching both these teams are still in the hunt for the quarter-finals, with the Azzurri going into this fixture with a full house of 10 points amassed in the standings – after clinching bonus-point triumphs over Namibia and Uruguay.

Despite those two wins, they occupy second position in their pool, with World Cup hosts France sitting pretty at the top of the table on 13 points, although they have already played three matches.

However, the Azzurri face an acid test against the All Blacks, who are currently in third spot in the group on five points following their loss to Les Bleus in the tournament opener before they bounced back with a convincing victory against Namibia in their second match.

Although they are trailing Italy on the table at the moment, New Zealand will be quietly confident of securing a win in this encounter as they have dominated this fixture over the years.

Since the first match between these countries at the inaugural World Cup in 1987, the All Blacks have been victorious in all 15 of their Tests against the Azzurri, winning by an average margin of 51 points.

Their poor record against the All Blacks leaves the Azzurri with plenty of motivation ahead of this fixture and they head into the encounter with no player in their matchday squad having scored a try against the All Blacks. The last Azzurri player to cross New Zealand’s try-line was Tommaso Boni in 2016.

Meanwhile, the All Blacks will be keen to hammer home their dominance in this fixture with a polished all-round performance. Apart from that defeat to France, they also suffered a humiliating loss to South Africa in a Rugby World Cup warm-up match at Twickenham.

A common theme in those two matches – and in their win over Namibia – is the high number of penalties conceded by the men in black and it’s something they will be hoping to improve on.

If they manage that, they should be on course to reach the quarter-finals with just one match against Uruguay lying in wait before the knockout rounds, while Italy’s last encounter of the group stage is a tricky assignment against France.

Last time they met

What they said

Italy head coach Kieran Crowley expects a tough day at the office for his team but urged his players to meet that challenge head on.

“We’re under no illusions about what is coming,” he said. “They are going to come at us and are going to be aggressive, and they are going to try to intimidate us.

“They’ll try to bully us. We have to embrace that challenge.”

All Blacks counterpart Ian Foster responded to that claim by saying: “That’s rugby, everyone is trying to do that.” “They’ll be trying to do that to us. It’s a physical game. It’s not a lack of respect from anyone.

“Both teams, there’s a lot at stake. This was always going to be a game we knew we had to get excited about and play well in.

“The good thing is that we are playing a team that is confident, so there are no surprises. They’ve earned that. The last two years, we’ve seen a lot of growth in their game.

“I made the point after the Six Nations, that they were one of the highlights of the Six Nations, the way they played and the competitiveness of all their games.”

Players to watch

The All Blacks have been boosted by the return from injury of four players to their matchday squad for this fixture. All of them are set to make their debuts at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, with Shannon Frizell and Jordie Barrett lining up in the starting line-up while regular skipper Sam Cane and Tyrel Lomax have been named on the bench.

Frizell’s return is expected to boost the three-time world champions as he has been sidelined for the past month with a hamstring injury and his absence has coincided with their losses to the Springboks and Les Bleus. Frizell’s return will bring a hard edge to the All Blacks’ forward play as he is renowned for his excellent physicality on attack and defence.

Meanwhile, Barrett is back from a knee injury and is set to renew his midfield partnership with Rieko Ioane which was coming along nicely until the inside centre was sidelined after that loss to the Boks at Twickenham. Barrett has excellent distribution skills and has the ability to create space for his team-mates on attack, while his kicking – at goal and out of hand – is also of an excellent standard and he will be keen to hit the ground running against Italy.

Another player to keep an eye on is veteran second-row Sam Whitelock, who is set to surpass Richie McCaw as the most capped All Black in Test history. Whitelock has been named on the bench and if he sees action he will make his 149th Test appearance. The 34-year-old trails only Alun Wyn Jones (171) as the most capped player in world rugby. Since his debut against Ireland in New Plymouth in 2010, Whitelock has started in 125 of his 148 Tests, earning just 23 caps off the bench.

A player who will be crucial to the Azzurri’s cause is their captain Michele Lamaro, who apart from his outstanding leadership has also caught the eye with with excellent all-round performances in his side’s previous World Cup games. As an openside flanker, the 25-year-old has led the way with his work at the breakdowns but he is also a superb defender and will lead Italy’s charge in that department.

In Paolo Garbisi, Italy have a superb attacker who can change the course of the match with a moment of magic on attack. That will be difficult to do against New Zealand but despite it being a tough assignment against world class opposition, Garbisi will up for the challenge of unlocking the All Blacks’ defence.

Also keep an eye on outstanding speedster Ange Capuozzo, who is one of the best attacking players in the game at the moment. The 24-year-old is back on the wing for this encounter, after starting at full-back in the Azzurri’s previous game against Uruguay, but regardless of the number on his back, he poses a threat to most defences as he possesses an excellent skill-set and has great vision.

Prediction

Although Italy will put up a gallant fight, New Zealand will be up for the challenge and make a statement of intent for the rest of the tournament, which will put them on track to book their spot in the quarter-finals. New Zealand to win by 30 points.

Previous result

2021: New Zealand won 49-7 in Rome
2019: Match cancelled in Toyota (RWC)
2018: New Zealand won 66-3 in Rome
2016: New Zealand won 68-10 in Rome
2012: New Zealand won 42-10 in Rome
2009: New Zealand won 20-6 in Milan
2009: New Zealand won 27-6 in Christchurch
2007: New Zealand won 76-14 in Marseille (RWC)

The teams

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Telea, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea (c), 7 Dalton Papali’i, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ofa Tu’ungafasi
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Sam Cane, 21 Cam Roigard, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown

Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Luca Morisi, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Dino Lamb, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Hame Faiva, 17 Ivan Nemer, 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Toa Halafihi, 22 Martin Page-Relo, 23 Paolo Odogwu

Date: Friday, September 29
Venue: OL Stadium, Lyon
Kick-off: 21:00 local (20:00 BST, 19:00 GMT)
Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (Australia), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia)

READ MORE: Stars return for All Blacks as veteran breaks Richie McCaw’s record against Italy

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