Comment: Rassie Erasmus rarely makes the same mistake twice and the All Blacks will know that
Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus and an inset of All Blacks lock Sam Darry.
It is 25 years since the British and Irish Lions won the series opener against Australia and three days later came from 16 points down to beat the Brumbies on the hooter and go into the second Test flying high.
Austin Healey’s second try of the night, deep in stoppage time in Canberra, was followed by Matt Dawson converting from the touchline. At that moment, in a Bruce Stadium stunned into silence, nobody gave the Wallabies a chance of winning the series. Only they did.
A Lions team led by Martin Johnson, with Jonny Wilkinson, Brian O’Driscoll and Jason Robinson in the back line and Richard Hill, Scott Quinnell and Keith Wood in the forwards, lost the next two Tests.
Forward wind to 2017 and the British and Irish Lions on their travels again. This time in New Zealand. Well beaten in the first Test, they went to Wellington three days later and blew a 23-7 lead against the Hurricanes.
Do you really think anyone was backing Sam Warburton’s men to bounce back and beat the world champions in the second Test and then snatch a share of the series with a dramatic draw in Auckland?
Don’t draw conclusions yet
So don’t be too quick to draw conclusions from the 2026 All Blacks following up a resounding first Test victory over South Africa with a come-from-behind defeat of the Johannesburg-based Lions on the same Ellis Park pitch.
Dave Rennie’s side scored four unanswered tries in the final half hour on Tuesday evening to rescue a 35-17 deficit, win the game 41-35 and head off down to Cape Town feeling decidedly chipper.
Rennie waxed lyrical afterwards about the “phenomenal” Ethan Blackadder, who scored two tries. Rieko Ioane and Emoni Narawa also impressed, while Richie Mo’unga had a number of nice touches on his return to the black jersey.
Best of all, the tourists picked up no new injuries – Anton Segner having been ruled out of the remainder of the tour prior to kick-off – so they have pretty much a full deck to pick from for Saturday.
On the face of it maintaining a 100 per cent win record and making it four from four against United Rugby Championship opposition, should have Kiwi fans super confident for the weekend.
But the examples given of the British and Irish Lions in Australia and New Zealand demonstrate that judgements based on a midweek result between the first and second Test are unreliable.
In 2001, match winner Healey returned to the changing room to find “the Test boys pretty overjoyed that the momentum had been maintained”. It did not stop the Wallabies levelling the series in Melbourne four days later, then taking it in Sydney.
In 2017, the media wrote of morale being further dented after the Lions gave up a 31-17 lead with 13 minutes to go. Those of us in attendance concluded it was “exactly what Warren Gatland and his coaches could have done without as they try to lift their side to save the series”.
What did we know. Come the weekend Sonny Bill Williams was sent off, the All Blacks lost on home soil for the first time since 2009, failing to score a try at home for the first time in 15 years, and Maro Itoje left the field with his name being sung around the Cake Tin.
Turning the series is in the Springboks’ control
This, one suspects, will be the prism through which Rassie Erasmus is viewing the weekend. Bruised though he undoubtedly will be from last weekend’s 5-1 try thrashing, he will know that turning around the series remains in his control.
He did it against the 2021 British and Irish Lions. Not that anyone looks back on that Covid series with any great fondness. And New Zealand will know that Rassie rarely makes the same mistake twice. In four years, the Boks have not lost successive Tests.
Ironically, the Boks may be the team to take most from Tuesday’s game in Johannesburg given that Francke Horn’s Lions showed that marrying a dominant scrum with clear attacking thinking does trouble New Zealand.
The Springboks brought set-piece brawn but zero brain matter to the first Test. Their red zone efficiency was lamentable and they paid a heavy price.
Well coached by Ivan van Rooyen, the provincial side once known as Transvaal were a different attacking beast, scoring five tries from as many opportunities.
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With Chris Smith providing an assured hand on the tiller the Lions led 21-7 after half an hour and held an 18-point advantage until the 49th minute.
It was then Blackadder, Ioane and Narawa got motoring to press their claims for inclusion somewhere in Rennie’s second Test 23. Narawa’s sidestep, sending four defenders the wrong way, for the final try was an absolute highlight.
Rennie left Ellis Park assuring All Black fans that while his side had not been accurate and clinical enough and had turned over too much ball trying at times to play too much, he had learned a lot from the evening.
Time will tell about that. DHL Stadium awaits. Three days and counting.
