Japan v Argentina preview: Los Pumas to grind out win that seals quarter-final spot
Japan full-back Lomano Lemeki and Argentina hooker Julian Montoya.
While plenty of focus of course surrounds the Ireland v Scotland match on Saturday, there’s also another crucial fixture this weekend as Japan face Argentina.
Thankfully mathematical permutations are not required for this Pool D clash as for the Brave Blossoms and Pumas, the equation is simple; win and progress.
Both sides have won their games against Samoa and Chile but lost to England, which has left them locked on nine points each ahead of this knockout fixture.
For the victor a quarter-final meeting with Wales awaits and it is fair to say that judging on form thus far, this Pool D duo need to improve considerably if they are to go deep in the 2023 competition. The standard from Los Pumas especially has been hugely disappointing while Japan are also well short of their 2019 selves.
This is therefore a great opportunity to claim a confidence-boosting win that would gain vital momentum ahead of a possible quarter-final next weekend.
Last time they met
Argentina ran out 54-20 winners in Tokyo in 2016 as tries from Matias Moroni (2), Nicolas Sánchez (2), Santiago Cordero (2) and Tomas Cubelli saw them to victory. Sanchez also landed five out of the seven conversions and three out of three penalties while Amanaki Mafi and Lomano Lemeki scored for the Brave Blossoms.
What they said
Japan prop Keita Inagaki spoke about what style of game he expects against Los Pumas as two contrasting styles are ready to collide at the Stade de la Beaujoire.
“We know what kind of rugby they will play. At the same time, they know what’s coming too,” he said. “The most important thing for us is making sure that we bring what we prepared 100 per cent on to the field. That’s all it is. I have the confidence that, as long as we manage to do that we will win, and if not we will lose this game.
“I think it’s going to be a low-scoring game, so we cannot concede any penalties. A mistake can be converted to three points and that’s what gives them the momentum. It’s going to be really important that we limit giving away penalties.”
Meanwhile, Argentina head coach Michael Cheika revealed how they have approached this win-or-bust game, suggesting they have a plan to put pressure on Japan.
“I have experience with the country and with the team, with their mentality. It is a very disciplined team, like the country. They know what they want to do strategically as a team in each game,” he said.
“We know that they were in the quarter-finals in the last World Cup and not us, so we want to change this situation.
“We know the opponent, but it is more our game and how we can put them in difficulty and take points when we put that pressure on. In our preparation, we have analysed Japan, but more (we have worked) on how to put pressure on them.”
Players to watch
Japan’s best performer last time out was full-back Lomano Lemeki, who grabbed his chance in the number 15 jersey and showed his class both with ball in hand and through his boot. He’s such a destructive runner and Japan will need him to replicate that Samoa performance on Sunday, with a healthy link-up with wing Kotaro Matsushima key to the Brave Blossoms’ hopes of victory. If these two can stamp themselves on the match, Japan will have the high tempo game they crave.
Another vital player to Japan’s hopes is Kazuki Himeno who is amongst a superb and well-balanced back-row unit that includes Lappies Labuschagne and Michael Leitch. Himeno has been a rock defensively this World Cup – not missing a tackle in his 31 attempts – and also knows his way to the try-line so Japan will hope he’s prominent.
It’s a much-altered Argentina side from the Chile victory as 11 changes are made by head coach Cheika. Sanchez enjoyed his rare start last weekend but it was always going to be Santiago Carreras at 10 for this pivotal match as his improved game management in recent times has seen him nail down the 10 jersey.
The Pumas pack simply must front up and impose their physicality and style on this game if they are to come out on top as, to a man, they are formidable rugby players. Led by captain Julian Montoya, who boasts the third best lineout success in Rugby World Cup 2023, Argentina need to dominate the game up front.
The side in general has not been at the races thus far at Rugby World Cup 2023 but if the likes of Pablo Matera and Marcos Kremer shine, the result should come.
🗣️ "The 38-year-old hooker equalled Mario Ledesma’s total of 18 World Cup Tests, but if he adds one, he will establish a new record." #JPNvARG
🇦🇷 Argentina veteran Agustin Creevy set for milestone match. #RWC2023 👇https://t.co/lbyrxoNMN1
— Planet Rugby (@PlanetRugby) October 6, 2023
Prediction
It should be a fascinating 80 minutes due in no small part by what’s riding on things and it’s highly likely to go down to the wire in Nantes. Two teams very much at different ends of the possession statistics this tournament collide and we just believe the Pumas will grind out the points in a win by three.
Previous results
2016: Argentina won 54-20 in Tokyo
2005: Argentina won 68-36 in Buenos Aires
1999: Argentina won 33-12 in Cardiff
1998: Japan won 44-29 in Tokyo
1993: Argentina won 45-20 in Buenos Aires
The teams
Japan: 15 Lomano Lemeki, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 11 Siosaia Fifita, 10 Rikiya Matsuda, 9 Naoto Saito, 8 Kazuki Himeno (c), 7 Lappies Labuschagne, 6 Michael Leitch, 5 Amato Fakatava, 4 Jack Cornelsen, 3 Jiwon Gu, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki
Replacements: 16 Atsushi Sakate, 17 Craig Millar, 18 Asaeli Ai Valu, 19 Warner Dearns, 20 Amanaki Saumaki, 21 Kenta Fukuda, 22 Ryohei Yamanaka, 23 Jone Naikabula
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Emiliano Boffelli, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Francisco Gómez Kodela, 2 Julian Montoya (c), 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Agustín Creevy, 17 Joel Sclavi, 18 Eduardo Bello, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Pedro Rubiolo, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Nicolas Sanchez, 23 Matías Moroni
Date: Sunday, October 8
Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
Kick-off: 13:00 local (12:00 BST, 11:00 GMT)
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: Paul Williams (New Zealand), James Doleman (New Zealand)
TMO: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)