Italy v Wales preview: 14 successive defeats await ‘desperate’ Warren Gatland as the Azzurri clinch another famous Six Nations victory
Italy skipper Michele Lamaro and Wales counterpart Jac Morgan.
Round Two’s action of the Six Nations gets underway at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome on Saturday when Italy host Wales in their highly anticipated showdown.
Although it’s still the early stages of this year’s championship, this match is an important one in the grander scheme of things as it is a potential wooden spoon decider.
In years gone by, this fixture would have been viewed as a potential banana skin for the visitors but they head into this weekend’s clash under severe pressure after starting their 2025 campaign with a humiliating 43-0 defeat against France in Paris last weekend.
That meant Wales extended their worst losing streak to 13 successive Tests and Warren Gatland and his troops will be desperate to avoid another defeat as their prospects look bleak during the rest of the tournament with Ireland, Scotland and England still to come.
Although they were competitive during the early stages of their clash at the Stade de France, Wales soon ran out of steam against Les Bleus and were trailing their hosts 28-0 at half-time.
They managed to stem the tide somewhat in the second half of that match, with skipper Jac Morgan leading the way with an inspirational display on both sides of the ball, but the damage was done in the opening half already, and they can ill afford another defeat against their hosts who also lost their opening match to Scotland at Murrayfield.
The Azzurri might have suffered a 31-19 defeat to the Scots but they held their own for long periods and have come on in leaps and bounds under the guidance of Gonzalo Quesada, who took charge of the team ahead of last year’s Six Nations.
Italy registered an inspirational 24-21 victory over Wales in last year’s corresponding fixture in Cardiff which helped them avoid the wooden spoon for the first time in eight years.
These sides head into Saturday’s Test with Italy sitting in 10th position in World Rugby’s official rankings and Wales one place below them and the victors will end the weekend the higher-ranked team.
Italy would drop just one place in defeat while another Welsh loss could see them being replaced in 11th place by Georgia provided that the Lelos don’t fall to a shock defeat at the hands of the Netherlands.
That loss last year will still be rankling with the Welsh although Gatland has said in the build-up that the clash with Italy is not the biggest game for Wales in the last 20 years.
Where the game will be won
As usual, the forward exchanges will be crucial and whoever gains the upper hand at close quarters should have half the battle won. This is particularly true of the set-piece battle which both teams will be hoping to use as attacking launchpads after delivering impressive displays in the scrums and lineouts despite losing their respective tournament openers.
The scrum battle will be huge and Wales had a 90% success rate in that category – compared to France’s 71% – while Italy had a perfect 100% record and they also put plenty of pressure on Scotland who only won 62% of their ball at the set-piece.
However, what could prove to be the deciding factor, in what should be a closely fought encounter, is the teams’ discipline and the side who concedes the least penalties should also emerge as victors after 80 minutes.
Last time they met
What they said
After losing all their matches during the 2024 Six Nations, the only way is up for Wales and blindside flanker James Botham highlighted how important it is for them to be victorious in Rome.
“We need to get the win now and set ourselves up for the rest of the Six Nations and see if we can finish in a better position than we did last year,” said Botham.
“Every game is big, but obviously everyone keeps referring back to this losing streak and everything like that.
“We gotta come out all guns blazing, first twenty (minutes), and put our game on them and show them what we can do.”
Meanwhile, Italy scrum-half Martin Page-Relo is aware that the stakes are high ahead of this encounter and said his side are expecting Wales to deliver an improved effort after last weekend’s humiliating loss to France.
“It is a big match for us, and we have a lot of motivation,” he said. “We are expecting a great game and a good performance at the breakdown and in the one versus ones. It will be a good game and very physical.
“They will come hard after this loss. When a team suffers such a big loss there is always a reaction.”
Players to watch
For Wales, the return to action of Taulupe Faletau is a major boost and the veteran loose forward will be determined to hit the ground running after last representing his country at the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France. Faletau’s career has been hampered by injuries since then but his experience, brilliant play in the loose and superb physicality will give his side an edge and boost their chances of victory.
Meanwhile, amongst the backs, Wales will be hoping for another experienced campaigner in full-back Liam Williams to give them momentum with some strong runs from the back. At the age of 33, the Saracens star’s best days are behind him but he will fancy his chances of stamping his mark on this match with his attacking ability. If Williams hits his straps and gives his side momentum from the back, he could be influential in the outcome.
Another player who will be crucial to Wales’ cause is their highly-rated scrum-half Tomos Williams, who came into the Six Nations in a rich vein of form after delivering numerous outstanding performances at club level for Gloucester. Blessed with excellent attacking vision and the ability to unlock the tightest defences, the 30-year-old was not at his best against France and will be determined to deliver an improved display this weekend.
If Italy want to be victorious in this fixture, then their brilliant fly-half Paolo Garbisi will have to deliver one of his best performances. The 24-year-old plies his trade with Top 14 heavyweights Toulon and has the ability to dictate proceedings with his excellent skill set. Garbisi’s superb distribution skills should provide try-scoring opportunities for his team-mates and he has proved decisive in the recent victories over the Welsh.
As already indicated, the forward battle will be vital and amongst the Azzurri’s pack leaders are the experienced duo of Sebastian Negri and Federico Ruzza. Both have high defensive work-rates and will be leading Italy’s charge in that aspect of play while Negri should also make his presence felt as a ball carrier and at the breakdowns with Ruzza expected to be a vital source of possession for his team in the lineouts.
Main head-to-head
With so much riding on this encounter, there will be several exciting individual battles lined up across the park but the duel between the two captains could be one of the highlights of the match. Both Michele Lamaro of Italy and Jac Morgan of Wales are vital cogs for their respective teams’ causes.
Apart from being opposing captains, Lamaro and Morgan will also pack down opposite each other at the scrums as their countries’ starting openside flankers. That means they will be involved in leading the charge at the breakdowns and this could be a crucial battle as both players usually give their all in that department. Apart from their breakdown prowess, Lamaro and Morgan are also strong ball carriers with high defensive work-rates and they will be determined to outshine each other in each of those categories.
Prediction
This is a tough one to call as these are two evenly matched sides, and the result could go either way on the day. However, although both teams lost their Round One fixtures, they are trending in different directions, with the Azzurri showing improvement while Wales just can’t turn the corner in their bid to return to winning ways. Italy to win by three points and go back-to-back against Wales for the first time in their history.
Previous results
2024: Italy won 24-21 in Cardiff
2023: Wales won 29-17 in Rome
2022: Italy won 22-21 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 48-7 in Rome
2020: Wales won 38-18 in Llanelli
2020: Wales won 42-0 in Cardiff
2019: Wales won 26-15 in Rome
2018: Wales won 38-14 in Cardiff
The teams
Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Luca Rizzoli, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Dino Lamb, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Jacopo Trulla
Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Eddie James, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Ben Thomas, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Jac Morgan (c), 6 James Botham, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Evan Lloyd, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Dan Edwards, 23 Blair Murray
Date: Saturday, February 8
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Kick-off: 15:15 local (14:15 GMT)
Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Paul Williams (NZR), Sam Grove-White (SRU)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
