Ireland v All Blacks preview: Andy Farrell’s men to ‘exact revenge’ and maintain their winning record in rugby’s great ‘modern-day rivalry’
Split image of Ireland centre Garry Ringrose and All Blacks midfielder Rieko Ioane.
It’s the big one as Ireland and the All Blacks collide for the first time since the 2023 Rugby World Cup in what is the most hotly-anticipated Test of the Autumn Nations Series.
A replay of the night in Saint-Denis Paris, a grudge match, or just another chapter in what is quickly becoming one of the greatest modern-day rugby rivalries; however one looks at it, it’s bound to be a glorious occasion.
Ireland head into the fixture boasting an impressive record against their visitors having won five of their last eight meetings since 2016, when Joe Schmidt’s charges finally broke their duck against the men in black after 27 previous losses and one draw. Since that day in Chicago, the men in green have consistently impressed against the All Blacks and are the only team in international rugby that boasts a winning record against New Zealand in the last eight years.
A historic 2-1 series victory in Aotearoa was another magnificent notch on the Irish belt, but when it mattered most, with an elusive first-ever World Cup semi-final place on the line, it was the All Blacks who emerged victorious and crushed Ireland’s dreams of winning the William Webb Ellis Cup.
It was a feisty affair in Paris with both teams firing absolutely everything at one another but when Sam Whitelock pilfered over the ball after countless Irish phases in the New Zealand’s half, Wayne Barnes blasted his whistle for the final time and with it brought Ireland’s World Cup dreams to a swift end before Rieko Ioane delivered a farewell message to legendary fly-half Johnny Sexton, something that will not go unnoticed this Friday evening.
This all sets the scene for what will be an epic encounter against two of the three best teams in the world and a modern-day rivalry that comes close to that of the All Blacks and the Boks.
Where the game will be won
The old cliche of it will be won and lost up front rings true once again as it always does when to rather evenly matched teams go toe-to-toe and Friday in Dublin will be no different. On paper, the All Blacks will fancy their chances in the scrums have impressed in that facet of the game during the Rugby Championship and particularly against England in the latter stages at Twickenham. Even more so after the brilliant Tadhg Furlong’s name was absent from the Ireland teamsheet. However, one cannot disregard the fact that Nic Berry will take charge of proceedings and the Australian has a tendency of pressing for the game to play on rather than awarding penalties at the set-piece – this isn’t a criticism of Berry but rather a note on his style of officiating.
Meanwhile, the All Blacks lineout has been somewhat shakey this year with teams able to disrupt the quality of ball the New Zealanders get from the set-piece particularly when Codie Taylor is not on the park. This is a major strength of Andy Farrell’s side, and even more so, with three locks effectively starting in the pack as Tadhg Beirne starts as the blindside flanker. The Irish will be able to compete at the lineout for the full 80 minutes with Iain Henderson and Peter O’Mahony named on the bench, two Test veterans who will be out to pick off the throws of rookie hooker George Bell.
The set-pieces will be crucial, particularly with the strike plays particularly when one considers that New Zealand scored the most points per 22 entry of any side in the Rugby Championship (3.0) while Ireland conceded both he fewest 22 entries (30) and the fewest points per entry (1.7) of any team in the Six Nations.
Then there is the mighty battle that awaits us at the breakdown with both teams experts in that facet of play and showed as much against the Springboks this year. Both sides’ attacks are hugely reliant on quick ball and their defence on slowing the opposition’s ball and we will see arguably the two best breakdown teams in the world throttle one another in this facet of the game.
But perhaps with little separating the two teams in terms of playing ability, the real deciding factor will be the emotional edge and mental fortitude on the night. In Paris last year, the All Blacks will simply better on that front and were disciplined enough to get over the line against the Irish but they face a far different prospect in Dublin with a baying home support at a ground where Ireland has lost just once under Andy Farrell’s tutelage and are currently on a 19-game winning streak.
A moment of ill-discipline be it with technique, defensive responsibilities or even just a moment of brilliance could be the difference between the two teams.
Last time they met
What they said
Ireland head coach Farrell provided an unequivocal response when asked if his team is out for revenge and if they were using the World Cup quarter-final defeat as motivation for Friday’s showdown.
“No, that’s the truth – do you need that when you’re playing one of the best sides in the world? Everyone knows that’s the truth,” he quipped.
“There has been a lot of rugby played and a lot of water gone under the bridge [since that game] so it doesn’t even play a part in it.”
But he did admit that there is an added edge whenever it comes to the All Blacks.
“Playing against the All Blacks has always brought that edge for any type of game,” said Farrell.
“This is a top, top level Test match that everyone wants to be involved in. We want to be up there competing with the best.”
Meanwhile, Scott Robertson said that he was pleased by his teams’ preparations heading into the fixture between two rugby-mad nations.
“This is a highly anticipated match that promises to bring all the intensity and passion that we have come to expect from these two rugby-mad nations, both on and off the field,” he said.
“We are really pleased with how the squad has come through this week and our focus has turned quickly to this encounter post-England. We have trained well, and the players are fresh and ready to face a fierce challenge from the Ireland team.”
With Beauden Barrett ruled out of the Test due to a concussion, Damian McKenzie has been parachuted back into the starting XV and Robertson has full confidence in the playmaker.
“D-Mac is D-Mac, you get a bit of everything from him. When he’s on, he’s world-class and he showed some great touches and just kept believing in himself,” Robertson said.
Meanwhile, the All Blacks boss added that they do see an opportunity to put pressure on the Irish with tighthead prop Furlong ruled out of the encounter.
“Yeah, of course it does, that’s a leading question. He’s world-class so we see some opportunities in it, yeah,” he said when asked if the prop’s absence ‘changed anything.’
Players to watch
The return of Mack Hansen is a major boost for Ireland even if the winger hasn’t hit his usual highs for Connacht just yet. His incredible all-court skillset adds a different dimension to the Ireland attack as well as their exit strategies. Calvin Nash did a fine job in filling his void but when Hansen is on form, he is one of the best in the business in the wider channels both with the ball in hand and on defence.
Much of Ireland’s success on Friday evening will be down to the performances up front and most importantly from loosehead prop Andrew Porter. The powerhouse front rower is superb around the park but can easily get on the wrong side of the referee’s whistle at scrum time which was the case in Paris last year. He fronts up against one of the best tighthead props in the world in the form of Tyrel Lomax and his ability to get parity at least in the set pieces will be crucial. There is no doubting his ability around the park but he will need to paint the right pictures for Gardner and his officiating team at scrum time.
We will witness two of the best number eights in the world in action on Friday evening with Caelan Doris captaining his country against the All Blacks in a mouth-watering individual battle with Ardie Savea. The pair both have the ability to break the game wide open but that never takes their focus away from doing the basics incredibly well by racking up mind-boggling carry, tackle and ruck entry numbers.
Finally, from the Ireland team Jamison Gibson-Park’s return cannot be overstated as he starts against his country of birth again. The scrum-half is crucial to the Irish attack and while the side managed rather well without him during the July internationals, his return is a major boost.
Wallace Sititi has taken to Test rugby like a duck to water and is bound to play another massive role in the match’s outcome. The 22-year-old produced a man-of-the-match performance in Twickenham and was simply superb against the Springboks earlier this year. He is an all-court threat and has thrived in the wider channels for New Zealand. Ireland simply cannot give him too much space or any at all.
Another player Ireland will be wary of giving any kind of space is Mark Tele’a after the All Blacks speedster crossed for a brace of tries in the victory over England at Twickenham. The winger simply slides through defenders with insane ease and regularly racks up silly numbers for defenders beaten. He will line up across from James Lowe, whose defence has improved hugely in recent seasons.
Damian McKenzie returns to the number ten jumper on Friday evening after he was dropped to the bench for the clash against England. The playmaker starred New Zealand’s first eight Test matches of the year with mixed success but when he is on song, he is simply world-class. Mckenzie has been particularly accurate off the tee this year and with this match bound to go down to the wire, that could be the difference.
Main head-to-head
With both teams stacked with quality, it is difficult to nail down the main head-to-head but Farrell’s selection at centre has swung our decision setting up a stunning showdown between Garry Ringrose and Rieko Ioane.
Ioane will automatically be in the spotlight on Friday after his spat with Johnny Sexton after last year’s World Cup but the selection of Ringrose ahead of Robbie Henshaw suggests that Farrell is also wary of the All Blacks’ rapid number 13. Ringrose is a complete footballer and an incredibly astute defender often spoiling an attack with his sharp decision-making even when he doesn’t complete a tackle.
Meanwhile, Ioane’s form has yo-yoed in recent times but he produced arguably his finest performance since shifting to the centres in the World Cup quarter-final last year. The 27-year-old is still one of the most lethal finishers in world rugby and seemingly plays with an extra oomph when he has an emotional driver which is very much the case this weekend.
Both outfits are brilliant with the ball in hand and put immense pressure on the opposition 13s to make difficult decisions on defence and Friday’s showdown will be no different.
Prediction
There is no doubt that when the two heavyweights collide at the Aviva Stadium it will be an emotionally driven, tactically astute and frankly bloody marvellous Test match which makes it all the more challenging to predict. The All Blacks will be more battle-hardened than their Irish counterparts but also have to deal with just a six-day turnaround from a draining victory over England. Recent encounters between the two sides have either been decided by a narrow single-score margin or a double-digit one and this time we believe it will be the former. With the All Blacks missing crucial figures in their team and Ireland boosted by the return of key men, the scales tip in the host’s favour before factoring in their unprecedented record of 19 straight victories. It will be tight but ultimately, Ireland should have enough in their favour to edge the All Blacks by no more than five points in the grudge match and exact revenge for their World Cup disappointment.
Previous results
2023: New Zealand won 24-28 in Paris
2022: Ireland won 32-22 in Wellington
2022: Ireland won 23-12 in Dunedin
2022: New Zealand won 42-19 in Auckland
2021: Ireland won 29-20 in Dublin
2019: New Zealand won 46-14 in Chofu
2018: Ireland won 16-9 in Dublin
2016: New Zealand won 21-9 in Dublin
2016: Ireland won 40-29 in Chicago
The teams
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 5 James Ryan, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Tom O’Toole, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Ciaran Frawley, 23 Jamie Osborne
All Blacks: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Mark Tele’a, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Tamaiti Williams
Replacements: 16 George Bell, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Samipeni Finau, 21 Cam Roigard, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Stephen Perofeta
Date: Friday, November 8
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 20:10 GMT (Saturday, 09:10 NZDT)
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (England), Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia)
READ MORE: How to watch Ireland v All Blacks at the Aviva Stadium: TV channel, live stream, kick-off time
