How the Springboks can win the Rugby Championship with two rounds to spare

The Springboks are the only unbeaten team in the 2024 Rugby Championship after three rounds thanks to a pair of wins against Australia and one against the All Blacks last weekend.

The second-placed All Blacks sit a whopping eight points behind the Springboks on the table having lost their opening round clash against Argentina leaving the door wide open for a new champion.

New Zealand have enjoyed massive success in the Southern Hemisphere’s premier competition since the inception of the Rugby Championship in 2012 winning all but two titles during that period – Australia in 2015 and South Africa in 2019 are the only exceptions to the All Blacks’ success. In fact, the All Blacks have won every full edition of the tournament with the aforementioned pair being shortened competitions as they were during Rugby World Cup years.

Comes down to this weekend

This year, however, there is a different picture as the title is South Africa’s to lose as the world number one side is currently on 14 points and crucially eight points ahead of the second-place All Blacks (6 points) thanks to their slip-up against Argentina.

All of this culminates in another match-up between the Springboks and All Blacks this weekend in Cape Town which could decide the title but before we get into the scenarios where this is possible it is important to understand the differentials for two teams on the same number of points.

If two sides end the tournament on the same points tally the team that has won more games finishes higher than the other. In the event that the number of wins is also the same then the team that won more games against the other tied side finishes higher.

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What needs to happen?

With that in mind, the Springboks could clinch the title this weekend with a win over the All Blacks provided that the Wallabies defeat Argentina and Los Pumas.

A win without a bonus point would take Rassie Erasmus’ men to 18 log points which would leave them 10 points clear of the All Blacks at the very least – that is if Scott Robertson’s side gets two losing bonus points.

If the above scenario occurs, South Africa would be on 18 points, New Zealand 8, Australia 8 and Argentina 9.

If New Zealand and Argentina claimed bonus point victories over Australia and South Africa respectively in the final two rounds of the tournament, the Springboks would still end on top of the standings having claimed the most wins in the competition.

Even if Australia claimed back-to-back bonus point wins, they would only tie the Springboks tally of 18 league points but having lost twice to the world champions earlier in the tournament, they would be ranked second overall.

A bonus point victory in round four against the All Blacks would all but secure the title for the Springboks who would need Argentina to drop one log point from their possible 15 from their final three matches of the tournament.

Rugby Championship competition rules – Standings

Points will be awarded in all TRC matches on the following basis:

Win: 4 points
Draw: 2 points
Loss: 0 points for loss of more than 7 points
Bonus: 1 point for 3 tries or more than opponent
Bonus: 1 point for loss within 7 points or less

Position on the competition table shall be determined by competition points as set out above:

1. In the event of two or more teams being equal on competition points for any position on the competition table such position shall be determined by the team with the most wins in the series.
2. In the event of (a) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined by the team with the most wins against the other team/s tied on the same points.
3. In the event of (b) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined on the margin of points scored for and against in the series. The team with the highest margin of points scored for and against being considered as the winner.
4. In the event of (c) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined on the margin of points scored for and against by those competing teams. The team with the highest margin of points scored for and against being considered as the winner.
5. In the event of (d) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined on the basis of the team scoring most tries in the series.
6. In the event of (e) above not providing a decision, the Series shall be shared between the two teams.

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