France v Italy preview: Quarter-final place on the line as Azzurri face mission impossible

This match may well be a winner-takes-all encounter, but it certainly doesn’t feel like that after Italy’s shambolic effort against New Zealand.

The Azzurri were embarrassed by the All Blacks last Friday, shipping 14 tries in a 96-17 defeat, which put their campaign on life support. In truth, no one believes they can upset the hosts, but the equation remains relatively simple for the Italians.

If they win, even if Les Bleus garner a losing bonus-point, that will take them into the quarter-finals at the expense of Fabien Galthie’s men. It would, however, be one of the all-time great Rugby World Cup shocks and not even the most optimistic Italian supporters are expecting it to happen.

But there is no doubt it adds to the pressure for the home side, who will know that a loss ends their World Cup dreams. And in front of their own fans, that would be utterly catastrophic.

Certainly, previous French teams may have wilted, but this outfit appears to be made of sterner stuff and have shown their mental toughness on a consistent basis under Galthie.

This game should be much closer than the blowout in Lyon last weekend, though, with Italy’s head coach Kieran Crowley admitting that they got their preparation wrong for that encounter, but form and history only points to one winner.

It would really be quite remarkable if France were to exit their home tournament at the pool stages having also beaten the All Blacks in their opening match. It won’t happen… surely?

Last time they met

What they said

France head coach Galthie is expecting a response from Italy after the Azzurri were thrashed by New Zealand last weekend.

“We know [Italy] well, we’ve played them five times in four years. The last match in Rome was difficult for us [France won 29-24],” he said.

“We’re going up against a wounded team, and we’re expecting a very strong reaction from them. They’ve made some changes, and some players are back in the starting line-up. They have everything to gain.”

Galthie was also asked about what he expects from Maxime Lucu at scrum-half following the injury to Antoine Dupont.

“Max [Lucu] has never let us down; he’s always performed well in the French team. He plays a lot for the team in both attack and defence. He’s courageous, he’s effectively a ninth forward,” he added.

“He and Matthieu Jalibert complement each other. Matthieu is an experienced 10 who’s been with us for four years, and he’ll be there for us again. The fact that they play together on a daily basis means they’re close and know how to play off each other.

“They’re our half-backs primarily thanks to their level of rugby and the performances they’ve already achieved with us.”

Meanwhile, Italy boss Crowley admitted that they got too far ahead of themselves going into their clash with the All Blacks.

“If I look at last week, on reflection, on my behalf we lost the process. We looked more at the outcome rather than the process. That was a disappointing factor from my perspective. This week we have gone back to process,” he said.

“We said to the guys that one game doesn’t define you, just like one bad article doesn’t define a reporter, or one good article doesn’t define you. It’s exactly the same in sport, one bad performance doesn’t define you. If you have three, four, five of them, then that defines you.

“We gave up 10 tries to set-plays, something like that, which is something we’ve never done before.

“Your confidence is knocked and how do you regain that? Well, by getting back to the process and having self-belief. And that’s easy to say, we will see how we’ve done on Friday night.”

Players to watch

It wasn’t that long ago wing Gabin Villiere was seen as an indispensable member of the backline, but youngster Louis Bielle-Biarrey has rather changed all that. Since making his debut during the Rugby World Cup warm-ups, the 20-year-old has impressed and he is rewarded for his performances with a start in this vital pool match. Villiere, given his greater defensive qualities, especially at the breakdown, could come back for the quarter-finals should they get there, but Bielle-Biarrey may make that decision difficult for Galthie with a fine effort on Friday.

His selection is the only real surprise behind the scrum, but there is a different name at scrum-half following Dupont’s injury. Maxime Lucu takes on the responsibility in the absence of the great half-back and it will be fascinating to see what he can bring to the table. Les Bleus have a plethora of quality scrum-halves in the Top 14 and Lucu is one of them, but France’s game plan revolves around the outstanding Toulouse playmaker. There is definitely a drop-off in the team when he is missing, so the pressure is on for the Bordeaux-Begles half-back to step up.

Meanwhile, up front, Anthony Jelonch gets the nod over Francois Cros at flanker. For us, Cros falls into the Dupont and Jonathan Danty category in that France play much better when those individuals are in the team, so it’s interesting to see that the head coach has changed it up for this big game. Jelonch is an excellent all-round back-rower, who carries hard, defends well and is a threat at the breakdown, but Cros excels at the unseen work and provides balance to the loose trio.

Jelonch comes up against Italy captain Michele Lamaro. The openside is an inspirational player and skipper, but he was as culpable as anyone for their abysmal display against the All Blacks. Leadership was very much lacking throughout that contest, while his performance in general play fell below its usual high standards. It was a steep learning curve for the 25-year-old and hopefully those lessons have been taken into this encounter.

Another key player to make a series of bad errors and decisions was Paolo Garbisi, who rarely took the right option in either attack or defence during that clash. Possibly as a result of that, he has been shifted from the fly-half slot and moved to 12 where he can lean on the experience of Tommaso Allan, who is at 10.

That also allows Ange Capuozzo to start in his best position at full-back. We understood Crowley’s decision to shift him to wing previously, allowing Allan to come into the team and add an extra playmaker in the wider channels, but it has ultimately hampered Capuozzo’s performances. The talented 24-year-old has struggled to get into the game on the wing and that shift to 15 should get much more out of him.

Prediction

Italy won’t be as bad as they were against France and the familiarity they have of facing Les Bleus regularly will help. The Azzurri won’t have that fear factor, which means they should mentally stay in the contest, but ultimately the hosts are too strong. They have too much quality and will claim the win to top the group. France by 25 points.

Previous results

2023: France won 29-24 in Rome
2022: France won 37-10 in Saint-Denis
2021: France won 50-10 in Rome
2020: France won 36-5 in Saint-Denis
2020: France won 35-22 in Saint-Denis
2019: France won 47-19 in Saint-Denis
2019: France won 25-14 in Rome
2018: France won 34-17 in Marseille
2017: France won 40-18 in Rome

The teams

France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Charles Ollivon (c), 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Thibaud Flament, 4 Cameron Woki, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16 Pierre Bourgarit, 17 Reda Wardi, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Francois Cros, 21 Baptiste Couilloud, 22 Yoram Moefana, 23 Melvyn Jaminet

Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Pierre Bruno, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Paolo Garbisi, 11 Montanna Ioane, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Pietro Ceccarelli, 2 Hame Faiva, 1 Simone Ferrari
Replacements: 16 Marco Manfredi, 17 Federico Zani, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 David Sisi, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Alessandro Fusco, 22 Luca Morisi, 23 Lorenzo Pani

Date: Friday, October 6
Venue: OL Stadium, Lyon
Kick-off: 21:00 local (20:00 BST, 19:00 GMT)
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant Referees: Luke Pearce (England), Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)

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