France v Ireland preview: The Rugby World Cup final that could have been kicks off 2024 Six Nations

Colin Newboult
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Gregory Alldritt of France and Ireland's Caelan Doris.

A new Rugby World Cup cycle may mean new players, a fresh start and potentially a different coach for some sides, but there is plenty of familiarity between these two giants of the European game.

Granted, some of their superstars from years gone by are missing – albeit for different reasons – with Ireland’s Johnny Sexton retiring and France’s Antoine Dupont chasing his Olympic dream, but cohesion has been the order of the day for both sides.

After all, the past four years have proved that they don’t need too many tweaks, despite the ultimate disappointment during the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

Frustrating quarter-final eliminations came for the French and the Irish, even though their build-up was as serene as it could have been. However, in knockout matches, it all comes down to the day of the game and they were just not quite good enough against South Africa and New Zealand respectively.

Had the Springboks and All Blacks been defeated then one of these teams would have likely gone into the 2024 Six Nations as world champions, such is the small margins involved in sport at the top level. Instead, there is a sort of rebuilding job to be done – more on their reputation and standing than anything else – but that will quickly be repaired should these sides have a positive tournament.

The match in Marseille is therefore crucial. Many are even describing it as the game which will eventually decide the winner of the competition, although England and potentially Scotland may have something to say about that.

It is an opportunity for France and Ireland to dust off the international cobwebs and get back to where they think they deserve to be, which is at the summit of the world game. Some may even think they never left it, but World Cup hangovers can do funny things to teams and that could prove to be the case over the next month-and-a-half.

Where the game will be won

If you look at the key battles in the air, in set-piece and on the gain line, we can see the first two being relatively equal. The respective front-rows are of proven quality and will have a fascinating duel, but we can’t see too much separating them. There are question marks over Andrew Porter’s scrummaging technique, but he seems to get away with it on most occasions and the loosehead will hope that the referees continue to have a good view of him against the imposing Uini Atonio.

As for the lineout, both could well be attackable, and in Charles Ollivon and Peter O’Mahony you have two of the best defensive jumpers around, but there isn’t an obvious dominant force looking at the teams. That is similar with the kick-chase game, with both Jamison Gibson-Park and Maxime Lucu both incredibly accurate off the base. Mack Hansen is a miss for Ireland, but one of Calvin Nash’s strengths is aerially, as well as the way he reads the game, making him a smart replacement for the Connacht man.

That leaves the breakdown and how the sides can stop the jackallers from getting too much traction in that area. There are plenty of threats on both teams, which means getting across the gain line, winning quick ball and stopping the opposition from getting the chance to pilfer is crucial. It is particularly important for a possession-heavy outfit such as the Irish, who like to go through the phases and stress the defence, so the onus is on Caelan Doris in particular to get them on the front foot.

Doris will also hope to get some support from the likes of Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Furlong, Josh van der Flier and Bundee Aki, who will also be key ball carriers. If they are successful, that would reduce the influence of Gregory Alldritt, Ollivon, Peato Mauvaka, Jonathan Danty and the breakdown destroyer Francois Cros, players that can win multiple turnovers if given the chance.

Equally, Les Bleus need to be strong in the carry and prevent Doris, Van der Flier, O’Mahony and Tadhg Beirne getting their way defensively. While they have plenty of physicality, especially when Alldritt, Ollivon, Paul Willemse, Danty and the whole front-row are running into contact, a lot of their momentum comes via the speed of ball from Dupont. Can Lucu replicate that or will they need to alter their game plan slightly to compensate for the scrum-half’s absence?

Last time they met

What they said

France head coach Fabien Galthie has backed scrum-half Lucu to successfully step in for the great Dupont while the 27-year-old is preparing for the Paris Olympics.

“It’s the moment to acknowledge Antoine,” he said.

“He chose an opening for the Olympics. It’s good to breathe, get out of what is usual in whatever way possible.

“He leaves a space, an opportunity for other players to take his shirt. Maxime Lucu has been with us since the start of our (journey) pretty much. He’s always been very good.

“It’s up to him to take charge of things, with his qualities, calmness, what he can do.

“We feel Nolann is ready to take on the role. I see this competitiveness in French rugby as a positive thing.

“Greg as a captain, leader, (full-back) Thomas Ramos and Maxime Lucu are part of them (the leadership team) now, they have to learn to play without Antoine.

“It will be interesting to see this different side of the French national team.”

Ireland are in a similar situation following the retirement of Sexton, with Munster youngster Jack Crowley being given the fly-half shirt for the France clash.

“Well, he’s a confident kid, Jack, so being able to grab hold of the team…it’s tough for young kids, especially with responsibilities like in his position but he feels very comfortable in being able to do that,” said head coach Andy Farrell.

“How you run a week is pretty important and you’re making sure that the rest of your teammates feel that you’re in control. He’s obviously learned a lot from Johnny in that regard.

“Harry is pretty good at that as well and Ciarán Frawley is getting better at that, but the only thing is that matters is the performance, isn’t it?

“Taking that preparation, that’s been good, very good actually, in camp and transferring it to a performance that we all want to see.”

Players to watch

For Les Bleus, it is all about how they handle the absence of Dupont. He is their absolute linchpin, someone who has been utterly pivotal in their transformation into one of the world’s best sides. When France have been without him, they have not been nearly as good, so the pressure is on his stand-in, Maxime Lucu, to step up and prove himself capable of guiding this team around the field from the start.

Lucu is a fine player and would get into most other sides in this tournament given his individual quality, but the issue for the French is that their team operates around Dupont. Galthie’s men play the way they do because of his ability to organise the chaos around him but, let’s be honest, no one can in the world can reproduce that style. Either France have to adapt their game plan or Lucu has to try and follow Dupont’s patterns, and that could ultimately decide their fate in the 2024 Six Nations.

Fortunately for the scrum-half, he has a strong and well-balanced pack in front of him that will make his job easier. Interestingly, Paul Gabrillagues gets a first Test outing since 2019 after a fine season in Paris for Stade Francais and he has been preferred to Cameron Woki. Gabrillagues will be looking to strike up a good relationship with his hooker, Peato Mauvaka, who has been elevated to a starting role, despite Julien Marchand being fit and available.

The lineout is potentially somewhere Ireland can target and youngster Joe McCarthy will be hoping to make a nuisance of himself at the set-piece and around the field. An absolute irritant at close quarters – and we mean that in the nicest possible way – McCarthy has game intelligence well beyond his years, so much so that James Ryan has been dropped to the bench.

The 22-year-old is also an impressive physical specimen, as he showed in the Rugby World Cup quarter-final against New Zealand, and he will carry hard into contact. That takes the pressure off the likes of new captain Peter O’Mahony, who can focus on doing his work in the lineout and causing problems for the French at the ruck.

Behind the scrum, like Lucu with France, all eyes will be on Jack Crowley, who takes over from Sexton at fly-half. The Munster playmaker is exceedingly talented, but this is a huge step up from provincial level and his form has not been the greatest leading into the Six Nations. He does, however, very much deserve his shot, but life after Sexton begins on Friday and it will be fascinating to see how Crowley goes.

His task is not helped by the absence of Garry Ringrose, whose playmaking qualities and vision in those wider channels would have slightly taken the pressure off the fly-half. Instead, an injury to the centre has brought Robbie Henshaw into the XV, a player that is of the highest quality but is someone that offers different attributes. He will run hard, defend well and be a bigger physical presence, but you just worry about the balance of the backline without Ringrose or Hansen, who is another ball player.

Main head-to-head

With the gain line battle so critical between these two, the duel between Gregory Alldritt and Caelan Doris could decide the match. It certainly played a huge part in last year’s contest as Doris well and truly announced himself as a world-class number eight in the reverse fixture in 2023. He became one of the few players to be awarded a 10 for his effort in Dublin as Ireland deservedly defeated France in what was effectively the tournament-deciding encounter.

At that point, Doris was ahead of Alldritt in the back-row pecking order, but the Frenchman probably ended 2023 in front after recovering from that slight dip in form. The 26-year-old shone for Les Bleus before and during their home World Cup, and has continued to excel for La Rochelle. He has also been handed the captaincy in Dupont’s absence, which both shows his importance for France and the leadership qualities he offers.

Prediction

France have been forced into making more changes than they would have ordinarily liked but it is still a remarkably strong squad and they are justifiably favourites. There is probably equal trade-off in the absences of Dupont and Sexton, but Les Bleus have the edge up front, as well as some sparkling outside backs, which gives them a slight advantage. France by seven points.

Previous results

2023: Ireland won 32-19 in Dublin
2022: France won 30-24 in Paris
2021: France won 15-13 in Dublin
2020: France won 35-27 in Paris
2019: Ireland won 26-14 in Dublin
2018: Ireland won 15-13 in Paris
2017: Ireland won 19-9 in Dublin
2016: France won 10-9 in Paris
2015: Ireland won 24-9 in Cardiff
2015: Ireland won 18-11 in Dublin

The teams

France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Yoram Moefana, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt (c), 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Paul Willemse, 4 Paul Gabrillagues, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Reda Wardi, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Posolo Tuilagi, 20 Paul Boudehent, 21 Cameron Woki, 22 Nolann Le Garrec, 23 Louis Bielle-Biarrey

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony (c), 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 James Ryan, 20 Ryan Baird, 21 Jack Conan, 22 Conor Murray, 23 Ciaran Frawley

Date: Friday, February 2
Venue: Orange Velodrome, Marseille
Kick-off: 21:00 local (20:00 GMT)
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (England), Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)

READ MORE: France v Ireland teams: Winners and losers after bold selections for Six Nations opener

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