Expert Witness: Nick Easter’s five talking points ahead of the Rugby World Cup’s opening weekend

James While
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France's Antoine Dupont and New Zealand's Aaron Smith, our Expert Witness Nick Easter, England's Marcus Smith and Argentina's Marcos Kremer.

Former England international Nick Easter spoke to Planet Rugby’s James While about the opening weekend of the upcoming Rugby World Cup in France.

Anticipation

I can’t ever recall a World Cup with such a blockbuster line-up of opening games. Whether it be Wales v Fiji, England v Argentina or France v New Zealand, there’s not a single tie that doesn’t whet the appetite for what’s yet to come.

The whole of France is a sea of tricolours – every small town is decked out in support of Les Bleus and the support for both the tournament and the national side is reaching fever pitch, even to the point where French selections are being discussed by Emmanuel Macron in the French Assemblée Nationale!

The sun is shining on the tournament and this weekend we’re expected to see temperatures of 30 degrees plus in the inland parts of France, with 32 predicted for the opener in Paris.

With nothing to chose between the top four nations, South Africa, Ireland, France and New Zealand, and with both Scotland and Argentina probably capable of beating anyone on their day, this year’s tournament has arguably the highest quality of form and rugby we’ve seen going into the matches and I can’t wait to see the outcomes.

France v New Zealand

The standout is the opener where two of the top four sides – including the hosts – go head to head in the curtain raiser. France have control over their own schedule and it’s their decision, a daring one, to play this one first up, using the fervour of their support as a competitive advantage.

Knowing that their own supporters can be somewhat capricious at times, it’s a bit of a gamble but Les Bleus are in a good place despite injuries to do a number on an All Blacks side that aren’t at their peak.

The battle of seven, eight, nine and 10 in this match will be one for the rugby purists. There’s five of the best 10 players in the world going head to head there, the two best eights, the two best nines and arguably the world’s best seven in Charles Ollivon, a man I believe might be one of the players of the tournament.

France have an edge at nine with Antoine Dupont even considering the brilliance of Aaron Smith, but that’s possibly cancelled out by a slight advantage held by the All Blacks at 10, where Richie Mo’unga is the more assured match controller, despite the fireworks Matthieu Jalibert is capable of producing. Greg Alldritt and Ardie Savea are contrasting eights; Alldritt is four wheel drive diesel traction whereas Savea is a little more high octane.

It’ll depend largely on how France protect their own possession in contact; the Springboks retention in the match at Twickenham was crucial to their display, preventing any easy access for the New Zealand turnover specialists to ignite transition attacks – the hallmark of Kiwi rugby. With both regular 12s missing, this one will come down to which of those brilliant spine players I mentioned gets the edge on their opposite number and given home advantage, I’m backing France by around eight points in the baking heat of Stade de France.

England’s task

I cannot recall a World Cup when there wasn’t at least some form of optimistic hope for England, but despite their easier route through the knockout stages, I really fear for their hopes in this match.

Selection and tactics are odd. It almost appears that Steve Borthwick selects on what you don’t do badly over what you do well, a safety first strategy that removes any form of creative identity from the players. I’m not sure what message this sends out to young explosive talent in the Premiership – it’s almost ‘reign it in, don’t try anything flash and we’ll pick you’ which won’t allow players to grow. You also wonder if this approach makes the players feel backed? What happens if I go for a 50/50 and fail? Will I get dropped?

Tactically, the coaches have said that they want to be a hard side to beat. Again I question that approach; surely the aim is winning, not losing by as few as possible? It’s a messaging thing and I think it’s mixed up.

It’s pointless going on about the players omitted but as a specialist eight myself I find it remarkable that the selection in the back-row will be, by definition, makeshift, with a total of 24 first class starts at the back of the scrum between the two main candidates Ben Earl (19) and Lewis Ludlam (5). This is a crucial technical position and to put this in context, Freddie Steward has had more career starts on the wing as Ludlam has at eight. Bluntly, this is nuts when you consider Zach Mercer is at home painting his new house in Gloucester.

Los Pumas are ticking along nicely and crucially they possess one of the best balanced back-rows in the competition, with the iconic Pablo Matera, the brick wall that’s Marcos Kremer and the gifted Juan Martin Gonzalez. There’s a perfect blend of bull-like carrying from Matera and incredible offloading and pacy footwork from Gonzalez who is set to be one of the breakthrough players of the tournament and is becoming close to world class. And then there’s Kremer, literally one of the biggest men I’ve ever seen at Test level. England spent 80 minutes bouncing off his chest in November 2022 where he smashed 31 enormous tackles and provided he controls his discipline, he’s one of the best defenders around.

Factor in real gas in the backline and the wonderous goal-kicking of Emiliano Boffelli and everything points to a win for the South Americans. England will have to be at their best in every department to overcome them. It’ll be a tough day for Borthwick and co. and I see this going Argentina’s way by a margin of maybe 12 or 15 points.

Scotland’s cheek

If New Zealand v France is the main course, then this one is almost the signature dessert of the French rugby menu and take it from me, this match is far from a foregone conclusion.

The thing about Scotland is they score points and they score lots of them. The only questions that they need to answer is can they compete in the set-piece against the best and can they produce enough ball to feed their mercurial backs? Both Ireland and South Africa will be fearing their games against Gregor Townsend’s men and they’ll both know one slip up sees them crashing out of the tournament.

Finn Russell already demonstrated that he can unlock the Bok defence as far back as 2021 with the Lions and as long as he plays the right side of the percentages his cheek can take any side apart, especially against big men who might struggle to cover his change ups. Elsewhere, they have power and pace contrasts everywhere in their backline and it’s a foolish man who dismisses their campaign.

The role of Rory Darge and Jamie Ritchie in providing turnover ball might well decide this match; if Scotland get 45% possession as a result, then watch out, they’ll get the scoreboard rolling.

One of the more amusing subplots is the Scots have a few of their own Saffers in their ranks, which neuters the Afrikaans lineout conversations, something the Boks use regularly. But South Africa are peaking at precisely the right time and will come into this bristling with aggression and power.

I’ll be fascinated to see their centre combination; for me, Canan Moodie and Andre Esterhuizen are the men. With Manie Libbok at 10, those boys showed a different (and quite scary) side of South African rugby and, although I’m sure South Africa will go with Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel, I think we’ll see the other pair overtake them by the end of the competition.

It may be a match just above Scotland’s grasp right now and I can’t bet against the Boks, but the Scots are in France to bloody some noses and it’s impossible to write off their brilliance.

Fiji flying

The big news of the day is that Fiji have lost their wonderful fly-half Caleb Muntz for the tournament through injury. I assume they’ll call up Ben Volavola to replace him but it’s undeniably a blow to their promising campaign.

But Fiji are playing structured rugby with a fine set-piece, underpinned by two Premiership stalwarts, Sam Matavesi and Eroni Mawi. They also have a clutch of players, including Levani Botia and Semi Radradra that are absolutely world class, and alongside Radradra, Josua Tuisova (if fit) and Waisea Nayacalevu are not too far behind.

Fiji have firepower, but they’re also the epitome of a momentum and emotion side, one that plays without technical encumbrance, but with a style steeped in natural and intuitive skills. Momentum is so important to them and, given their artillery in the backline and back-row, combined with the pool draw, if they get their mojo going there is no limit to how far they might progress. Even the big four sides would be fearful of meeting them in a knockout rugby situation and I will be tracking their campaign with interest.

Wales might have had some up and downs recently and one might argue they’re in a similar boat to England, but unlike Borthwick, Warren Gatland has cut out some of the aging legs and added in the hope of youth, a sensible policy given the realistic expectations the Welsh fans might have. Notwithstanding that, they have excellence in the back five of their pack with Jac Morgan a real find and they have proven finishers in their back three, with the X-factor of Louis Rees-Zammit always there to keep defences honest.

Nevertheless, Fiji are a form side and I see them having just too much quality providing their half-backs control the game, winning by a two score margin.

READ MORE: Captain’s Call: Chris Robshaw and Sergio Parisse dissect Rugby World Cup Pool A

Argentina Nick Easter