Expert Witness: Adam Jones highlights where Wales ‘cannot beat England’ and makes bold Scotland prediction

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Legendary Wales prop Adam Jones, England flanker Ethan Roots and Wales back-rower Adam Wainwright.

Legendary Wales prop Adam Jones, England flanker Ethan Roots and Wales back-rower Adam Wainwright.

Round Two of the Six Nations is almost upon us, and as England prepare to host Wales at Twickenham, cap centurion Adam Jones joins James While on this week’s Expert Witness.

We have teamed up with eToro, the official investing and trading partner of Premiership Rugby, to cover the 2024 Six Nations, previewing and reviewing the entire tournament.

Last week, we had ex-Ireland hooker Bernard Jackman join Expert Witness and this week, we have legendary Wales prop Jones on to discuss England v Wales at Twickenham.

Welsh promise

“Whilst I’m pretty proud of the way Wales performed in the second half, they looked very much like what they are – a young side learning – throughout the match. Early on, they kicked very poorly – often too deep, giving a great Scottish counter-attacking team loads of space to run back at pace,” Jones observed.

“Perhaps we tried to be a little too structured early on, and that’s not really our game, but after half-time, we tightened that kicking game up and played with a little more flair and ambition as the game broke up.

“It was great to see the young boys giving it a crack and playing that offloading pacy game that I’d like to think it characterises the Welsh way, and the performances of both Ioan Lloyd and Tomos Williams as replacements were key in delivering that.”

Jones knows that Warren Gatland will have delivered a rousing half-time speech with his side staring down a 20-0 deficit but adds that those who produced in the final 40 minutes have been rewarded.

“Knowing Gats, I would have thought there were some harsh words at half-time, but his style is to invite his team to play rather than to try and tighten things up, and the Rio Dyer try showed just how we can strike given the right build-up play,” Jones continued.

“I’d also like to shout out Alex Mann, a really spiky young flanker who isn’t dissimilar to Sam Warburton in size and style. He, along with Lloyd, Williams and Elliot Dee, have been given starts based upon their contributions, and I think that’s very fair from Gatland.

“This is a classic case of return on investment. Lloyd is a high-risk player, and the investments made as part of the wider Welsh portfolio give you exponential return, but with it, just like a financial investment, there’s a higher degree of risk for that potential growth he is capable of giving.”

England physicality

The legendary prop says that Wales cannot be caught flat-footed against England this weekend and will need to be geared up physically for the challenge that Steve Borthwick’s side possesses.

“Although there were a lot of positives for Wales, the test against England will be a step up in terms of physicality, and we cannot afford to get caught cold,” explained the Harlequins scrum coach.

“That half-back selection with Ioan [Lloyd] at ten is interesting as he’s more of a utility player, so he perhaps plays a slightly different game as an outside half to a specialist, fusing his pacy running with offloads and inside passes, which gives England a threat that will make them think about how they defend him.

“We also saw against Italy that Borthwick’s men are bedding in a new defensive system under Felix Jones. His vision is one that works on absolute pace as one line, but he uses the blindside wing to recover into the pendulum, with the outside man at the back joining the end of the defensive line to defend the corner and drift.

“We saw England getting too narrow without that man coming around in one of the Italian tries, but as the match went on, they improved greatly. Felix’s defence also relies upon sheer fitness in terms of the ‘reload’ back into the line, and the workload of doing this can fatigue teams not used to the system.”

After a standout performance against Scotland, Jones expects Tommy Reffell to have a huge influence on the match but adds that he will need assistance from his fellow back-rowers.

“In terms of that gain line and defensive battle, the back-row tussle will be key, and Tommy Reffell is the key man here. If England attack two sides of the ruck inside and outside, then they’ll need to clear quickly and accurately to prevent exposure. Reffell isn’t just a defensive player as Wales attack brilliantly against unstructured defences and it’s his turnovers, with help from others like Aaron Wainwright, that allow that broken field exploitation that worked so well against the Scots,” Jones said.

“I think the key question will be how England play. Given both teams are in similar stages of evolution in so far as they’ve got a number of changes post-World Cup (whereas Scotland, Ireland and France are a little more settled), I feel England are now looking to build upon their defence and set-piece success from the World Cup and bolt on a little more ambition.

“Wales cannot beat them in a kicking battle alone, and I’ll be interested to see how the big carriers like Ethan Roots and Tommy Freeman go – those guys were huge against Italy, and my old mate Alun Wyn Jones was suggesting that Roots has a bit of Dan Lydiate about him in terms of how he defends. I also think that fitness in the last 20 will be key; Wales are always strong in that fourth quarter, where there’s more space due to fatigue.

“If Wales can control their kicking, use their back-row to slow England at the breakdown and also compete in the set-piece, I genuinely think we have the ability to turn them over even at Twickenham, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Wales nick this by a score.”

French disconnection

Ireland produced a statement performance in the opening game of the Six Nations, defeating France 38-17 in Marseille.

While much of the praise has gone to the Irish pack, Jones identified scrum-half Jamison Gibson-Park’s performance as crucial.

“A few people were surprised at how France flopped against Ireland at home, but I cannot praise Jamison Gibson-Park highly enough for the way he dismantled the connection between Maxime Lucu and the French backline,” Jones raved.

“He put enormous pressure on the Bordeaux scrum-half, and it was his intellect and abrasion at the base of ruck and scrum that was the key tactic in removing the French attacking options.

“Lucu is on a hiding to nothing. He’s filling the biggest shoes in the game, standing in for Antoine Dupont and France, so missed the chaos that the little Toulouse genius creates – he is such a threat and does everything you can imagine on the pitch.

“Without that connection of the Toulouse half-backs and Thomas Ramos, it’s also removed that brilliant two tens attacking move that often sees France get wide then bring the ball back into their supporting secondary half-back running a midfield line – it’s a play that characterises them at club and national level, and it didn’t seem to be happening for them on Saturday.

“For Scotland to win, they have to get the runners in the French back-row out of their comfort zone and do the grunt work at the breakdown. There’s no better attacking loosies in the game than Charles Ollivon and Gregory Alldritt, but Ireland nullified them by tying them up in the gainline battle to compete.

“Out of their trio, only Francois Cros, a modern-day Serge Betsen in style, could really say he delivered a decent performance, and that was down to the intelligence of Peter O’Mahony and Josh van der Flier in creating ruck mess to occupy the others.

“Again, like the Welsh in the England-Wales game, Scotland are the underdogs, but if their set-piece holds France, then they have a great chance. Finn Russell and Ben White know the French players inside out, having played in the Top 14, and that really helps in terms of game management. The Scots have lost Richie Gray, which will be a blow, but at the time of writing I believe Grant Gilchrist will return, and he’s a very underrated and physical lock that always delivers in blue.

“It may go against logic, but I can see Scotland doing a smash-and-grab here, especially given it’s at Murrayfield, an absolute fortress, especially in the weather predicted over the weekend. If that happens, then France will be in absolute turmoil, and it will be interesting to see how Les Bleus react to their Irish defeat.”

Italian job

“Lastly, Ireland host Italy, and I am excited to see that Azzurri backline go once again. Italy is in an unusual situation as they have a fantastic three-quarter line – Brex and Menoncello were brilliant against England, and in Monty Ioane and Ange Capuozzo, they have two gas men that are as good as any around,” Jones explained.

“Yet up front, they don’t have the front five power that they’ve relied upon for so many years. Gone are the likes of Castro and Bortolami, and the current players are struggling to deliver the quality of ball that those brilliant backs need. I am sure that as the youngsters like Danilo Fischetti mature, this will happen for them, but against Ireland, I can’t see the forwards providing enough clean and quick ball to get that backline into the game.

Adam Jones on Ireland and Italy's investment

“Ireland learned a lot from France, and the quality of newbies Jack Crowley and Joe McCarthy showed how the evolution of this team is still on the upslope. That continuity that their system provides allows real cohesion to be taken into the test arena, and the other sides tend to need a match or two to catch up with the systems Andy Farrell takes from Leinster into the early stages of the competition, so whilst I am excited to see if that Italian backline can flourish again, I cannot see anything but a comprehensive Irish win,” Jones concluded.

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