England v Wallabies preview: Joe Schmidt ‘gamble’ to backfire as Steve Borthwick’s side ease pain of All Blacks defeat
England centre Ollie Lawrence alongside the Wallabies' Joseph Suaalii and Joe Schmidt.
After their latest All Blacks failure, England boss Steve Borthwick is certainly a coach under pressure now.
They simply had to get over the line in their Autumn Nations Series opener but, like what transpired in July, it was New Zealand that edged past the Red Rose.
With England unable to learn from their defeats in the mid-year series, that result at Twickenham was a significant setback. As they now head into their second match of the campaign against a struggling Wallabies, only a comfortable win will satisfy their supporters.
On the face of it, they should be much too strong on Saturday. While frustration still reigns around England over their All Blacks disappointment, the performances remain positive and, in many ways, trending in the right direction.
However, those displays need to be turned into results and Borthwick will hope that starts this weekend against an Australia side that finished bottom of the Rugby Championship.
New boss Joe Schmidt was handed a difficult task having taken over following the Eddie Jones disaster and so it has proved. Although they began with three victories over Wales (twice) and Georgia, Australia struggled in the annual southern hemisphere tournament.
They recorded just one win – away at Argentina – but were comprehensively beaten in four of their other matches, including a record 67-27 defeat to Los Pumas in the Sante Fe horror show.
Schmidt’s men only got to within 18 points of their opponents once in their five Rugby Championship defeats – a 31-28 home loss to the All Blacks – and even then they were 14 points down at the interval.
In an attempt to reverse their fortunes, the head coach has opted to bring former rugby league superstar Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii straight in.
Just 21, this will be the flyer’s first professional game of union but, let’s be honest, given Australia’s struggles at the moment, it is probably worth the gamble. They will just hope that it doesn’t backfire and their new hope can help Australian rugby to relive past glories.
Where the game will be won
You simply have to focus on that 13 channel where Suaalii resides. It is a brave call to include him in the XV in the first place but to do it in the position which is so difficult defensively, it is a massive risk. Now, with Len Ikitau alongside him, who usually operates in that slot, the Wallabies may switch them over when they are without the ball but, if not, then Schmidt is asking a lot of the youngster.
Against an England side who have a settled midfield axis, they could be asking for trouble. Although that Red Rose attack has yet to truly fire since the end of the Six Nations, they have the talent to expose their opponents if the visitors get it wrong defensively. Borthwick would no doubt like to see more from Ollie Lawrence and Henry Slade with ball in hand and this could provide the perfect opportunity.
In fact, they may feast, especially if the Wallabies struggle up front and in the kicking game. The scrum has always been a constant source of debate when these two clash, especially after Andrew Sheridan’s demolition job in 2005 and 2007, but that is very unlikely to be repeated on Saturday. If anything, it could be reversed, given England’s recent struggles and the quality of the four Aussie props. However, Schmidt will need more than just scrum solidity from his pack and in the back five the hosts do look much stronger.
Last time they met
What they said
Steve Borthwick addressed the culture within the set-up after explosive extracts from Danny Care’s new book were released, which detailed life under the previous England head coach, Eddie Jones.
“I’m trying to create an environment that is right for this group at this time. With respect, I finished with England very early in 2020 and now we’re here in 2024 and my focus and attention is on this team now and the environment I want to create,” Borthwick said.
“You can ask players, assistant coaches whatever you want to ask them about the environment now.
“As we are developing this squad, we are building a process of the players leading elements of the game, the players discussing elements of the game.
“In this campaign, we’ve had a notable step forward in terms of the players speaking in team meetings, and sharing their opinions. It’s sign of the growth of this squad. It has been modelled by some of the senior players.”
Meanwhile, Suaalii will have his first taste of professional rugby union when he steps out at Twickenham on Saturday.
“Just learning the plays and then the importance of the ruck,” Suaalii said, revealing his biggest challenge ahead of the Autumn Nations Series.
“That’s probably been the challenge but I’m always up for a challenge, I feel like I work hard and that’s one of my strengths.
“I played in school and I played Sevens so that was important to learn the breakdown – I know the importance of the breakdown particularly going up north.
“Contact has always been a strength of mine. In league you always have to embrace contact and go after contact too, so once I get a game in – even in training – it could be a point of difference but I’m just training it and it’s getting better each day.”
Players to watch
Borthwick has understandably stuck with the same XV that only narrowly succumbed to the All Blacks. There was not much in that game at all, but he would no doubt like to see George Furbank and Tommy Freeman involved more. Unlike Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, they struggled to get themselves in the game with the ball in hand, while Freeman was beaten a couple of times in the air. As ever, that kick-chase game is important for the hosts, which is why the Northampton Saints duo need better performances.
For that to happen, they will hope Ben Spencer is accurate with his box-kicking and the pack can get on top of their opponents. England have the ammunition, especially in the back five, to steamroll the Aussies, and they will hope George Martin and Chandler Cunningham-South are among those to display their physicality both with and without the ball.
Finally, the head coach will demand an improvement from the bench. They are the only team to have really struggled late on against the All Blacks, so the rest of the series will ultimately judge whether it is an England issue, or that it was New Zealand who simply got it right in those three matches.
Meanwhile, for the Australians, the pressure will be on Noah Lolesio and Jake Gordon to get their side in the right areas of the pitch. The Wallabies’ kicking game has improved slightly as the year has gone on, but it is still a concern, particularly opposite Marcus Smith and Spencer, who were very good in that facet of play last weekend.
The half-backs should at least have a platform thanks to Taniela Tupou and Angus Bell in the scrum, but those two are set for a busy day. They don’t exactly have too many big ball-carriers, which means Tupou and Bell, who are both excellent with ball in hand, may have to do the bulk of the work. They will be supported by the outstanding Rob Valetini, but the Australians will be put under duress at close quarters if the Red Rose halt that trio on the gain line.
Main head-to-head
Ollie Lawrence probably didn’t expect to see a complete novice opposite him this weekend but that is what will happen after Schmidt picked Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii in the Wallabies XV. Although Suaalii was a schoolboy star in union, that is obviously a far cry from what he will experience on Saturday.
Suaalii’s selection in itself makes it a very interesting duel, but the fact that there are questions around Lawrence’s role adds to the intrigue. The Englishman has always lined up in the 12 shirt internationally, with Henry Slade outside him, but this time he is at 13. Does that indicate a slight change in his job or is it simply mind games from Borthwick?
Slade has led that England blitz since the start of the year, so will there be a slight tweak in the hosts’ defensive system? We think not. If anything, it is a case of the Red Rose wanting to get Lawrence the ball in more space where he can actually be a devastating runner. Playing slightly tighter and being in that battering ram role, particularly off first phase, has potentially hindered the Bath star, so this alteration could pay dividends.
It is a midfield which can be incredibly effective if Suaalii struggles on debut. Granted, the 21-year-old is immensely talented, but it is a huge task for the youngster this weekend. There is no doubting the ex-league star’s ability and, with ball in hand, he could well cause England significant problems, but it is the nuances of the game he needs to master quickly if he is to succeed.
Prediction
Borthwick’s men have struggled late on in matches, often ceding under the pressure, but we think they will be too far ahead for it to matter this time around. Schmidt is a brilliant coach, he has some good players to work with and in Suaalii, they have a player who could in time be a superstar, but there are still so many holes in their game. England by 15 points.
Previous results
2022: England won 21-17 in Sydney
2022: England won 25-17 in Brisbane
2022: Australia won 30-28 in Perth
2021: England won 32-15 in London
2019: England won 40-16 in Oita
2018: England won 37-18 in London
2017: England won 30-6 in London
2016: England won 37-21 in London
2016: England won 44-40 in Sydney
2016: England won 23-7 in Melbourne
The teams
England: 15 George Furbank, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Henry Slade, 11 Tommy Freeman, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Ben Spencer, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 5 George Martin, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George (c), 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Nick Isiekwe, 20 Alex Dombrandt, 21 Harry Randall, 22 George Ford, 23 Ollie Sleightholme
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Max Jorgensen
Date: Saturday, November 9
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Twickenham
Kick-off: 15:10 GMT
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia), Paul Williams (New Zealand)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)
READ MORE: How to watch England v Australia at Twickenham: TV channel, live stream, kick-off time
