England v South Africa preview: Springboks to hammer Red Rose to reach back-to-back Rugby World Cup finals
England blindside Courtney Lawes and Pieter-Steph du Toit of South Africa during the Rugby World Cup.
In the wake of the thrilling quarter-finals last weekend, there’s a risk that these last-four contests are a bit ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’, but we sincerely hope not.
This Rugby World Cup deserves two keenly contested semi-finals, given the spectacle that has been put on over the last month or so. Granted, there has been teething problems during these past few weeks, but the passion, atmosphere and the quality of play on the field means that this tournament will hopefully get a fitting conclusion.
However, that will only happen if England can defy expectations and find a way of putting this imposing Springbok team under pressure. Despite their unbeaten tournament so far, there are issues in the Red Rose game that South Africa can, and probably will, exploit this weekend.
Steve Borthwick has done a good job following the sacking of Eddie Jones, improving the set-piece and producing a game plan which has ultimately resulted in a World Cup semi-final, but they still have some way to go to match the Boks.
England’s opponents on Saturday are frighteningly good and managed to dispatch France in a brutal encounter in Paris last weekend. Having ousted the hosts in the quarter-final on their way to the Webb Ellis Cup in 2019, is history destined to repeat itself?
It is to South Africa’s immense credit that they managed to withstand that outstanding performance from Les Bleus and stay in the competition. As a result, the path has opened up for them to reach a fourth final, following on from their successes in 1995, 2007 and 2019.
You suspect that ‘complacency’ has been a watchword for the Springboks brains trust. Both Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus have been incredibly respectful of England during the week, emphasising the Red Rose’s unbeaten run.
The second big concern for the defending champions will be their physical state. While all four quarter-finals proved to be gargantuan battles, the clashes between the teams that qualified from Pools A and B were just that level above.
With the shorter, six-day turnaround, that only increases the strain on the body and perhaps gives England a glimmer of hope this weekend. However, if the Boks have recovered well and are mentally ready, then there is only one winner in Paris on Saturday.
Where the game will be won
It starts and ends with the set-piece. Can England match South Africa in the scrum or lineout? If not, then the Springboks can book their ticket to the final in the first half, with the Red Rose relying on their pack gaining parity to give them even a sniff of a chance.
Ultimately, not only are the defending champions powerful up front, it just feels like a bad match-up for the English. Borthwick is a conservative coach who preaches the fundamentals of the game, but when your opponents are better in those areas, where do you go?
If a team were going to end the Springboks’ chances before the final, it was always going to be France – and not just because they are a much better side than England. While Les Bleus had the quality, in the first half at least, to compete with the Boks up front, it was the pace they played at which was their point of difference.
With Antoine Dupont directing operations at scrum-half, they basically took out the Boks’ rush defence and had them under serious pressure. However, the hosts ultimately blew themselves out and, in the last 20 minutes, were not fit enough to sustain that intensity. Once that happened, South Africa’s rearguard was able to get on top and get them through to the semi-finals.
Bearing that in mind, we’re not sure the Red Rose have that extra bit of quality to hurt their opponents. They should compete well at the breakdown, while their defence has improved over the past couple of months, but everything else is in favour of the Boks.
Last time they met
What they said
South Africa captain Siya Kolisi doesn’t believe that they are clear favourites despite England’s struggles leading into the World Cup.
“Obviously, we don’t see it that way because we know how good England are, how they play in World Cups, and the team has changed, and we’ve seen how hard they work,” Kolisi said.
“It doesn’t matter who we are playing. We need to get through this game. In the World Cup, we have seen teams who are not in the top 10 beating teams in the top 10, so it would be silly to think like that.
“We know exactly what they are going to bring and the motivation they have.”
Kolisi also admits that the Red Rose may be desperate to exact revenge following the Springboks’ triumph in the 2019 final.
“Lots of their players were there and want to prove something,” he added. “They have improved compared to before the World Cup.
“You can see the intent, the work-rate, the aggression they have around the field.
“It’s a completely different team; that’s why they are the only unbeaten team in the tournament.”
Meanwhile, England prop Ellis Genge is relishing the siege mentality that their lead-up to the tournament has formed within the squad.
“I quite like the noise and having our backs up against the wall, with everyone wanting us to lose. That probably fuels me a bit. Others are probably better off blocking it out,” Genge said.
“You don’t get any more style points in this. It’s about winning; that’s all we’re focused on. It’s boring, I know, but that’s all that matters. Find a way. Whatever way, I’m happy with it.
“We have achieved nothing yet. We have got a semi-final, but you don’t win any medals, so we need to knuckle down and do the hard work and what will be will be.”
Players to watch
England, quite simply, have to gain parity in the set-piece battle, and that starts in the front-row with Joe Marler and Dan Cole. Those two may have limited impact in the loose nowadays, but they are England’s best scrummagers and have a massive job to do this weekend. Ex-coach Jones regretted not starting Marler in the 2019 final, and it is easy to see why Borthwick hasn’t made that same mistake here.
It is the right selection call, but the question remains as to whether they can actually compete with the fearsome Springboks unit, who continue to set the standard for tight play in world rugby. The Red Rose scrum has struggled since the latter days of the Jones era, and Borthwick, along with his coaches, have not quite got it right either since they took over. Fiji had their moments up front in the quarter-final clash, and England need to be so much better if they are get close to South Africa.
That includes the back five of the scrum, which sees youngster George Martin come into the side in place of Ollie Chessum, who drops to the bench. Chessum is a wonderful player that is athletic, technically adept and physical, but Martin adds more bite to that second-row. He is destructive in defence and willing to take himself to places other players wouldn’t go physically, which gives him an edge over his Leicester Tigers colleague for this clash.
Finally, behind the scrum, it is all about the kick-chase and aerial game. It starts with the accuracy of Alex Mitchell’s box-kicking and continues with the efforts of Jonny May, Elliot Daly and Freddie Steward. On paper, England probably have a slight advantage in this area, with the Boks choosing smaller wings, Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse, but those two should not be underestimated under the high ball.
💨 KURT-LEE ARENDSE'S PACE! #FRAvRSA #RWC2023 pic.twitter.com/mK347QTdnV
— Planet Rugby (@PlanetRugby) October 15, 2023
Equally, they are a significant threat on the counter-attack should the Red Rose get their kicking game wrong, while it also hints at the direction of this ‘new’ Springboks outfit. Nienaber’s men have certainly not gone away from the fundamentals of their game, but they are more willing to chance their arm, especially with Manie Libbok at fly-half. Libbok has had his critics, particularly with his accuracy off the tee, but his creativity and running skills provides South Africa with something different.
Alongside Libbok at half-back is Cobus Reinach, a surprise starter for the quarter-final against France but someone who justified his inclusion by playing a key role in the first two tries. Reinach, like his playmaking partner, will be required to successfully carry out the core duties of a scrum-half, namely the kicking game, but the 33-year-old also brings more of a threat around the fringes than Faf de Klerk.
Reinach should be helped by the platform his pack gives, led by the imposing Eben Etzebeth. For the last two years, Etzebeth has comfortably been the best lock in the world and, against France, showed his value with an outstanding display. As well as his physicality and work at close quarters, the Springbok centurion is a nuisance at the lineout and has dominated the England set-piece in the times these sides have gone head-to-head.
Injury-depending, Etzebeth will stay on for the whole 80 minutes, but in the latter stages, he will hope to be aided by the impact off the bench. Once again, there is no 6-2 – or 7-1 – split, but Nienaber and Erasmus got their replacements spot on last weekend, and it will be interesting to see how they are used on Saturday. In particular, watch out for loosehead Ox Nche, who is in incredible form and dominating opposition tightheads every time he comes onto the field.
Main head-to-head
Quite often, it is the battle between Maro Itoje and Etzebeth which has set the tone for this encounter, but we are looking elsewhere on Saturday. Courtney Lawes has arguably usurped Itoje as England’s most important forward, and his battle with 2019 World Rugby Player of the Year Pieter-Steph du Toit will be absolutely critical. Lawes is now a genuine world-class blindside, having improved his skill-set over the years to become a top player in most facets of the game.
The Red Rose blindside is one of their primary carriers, an excellent lineout jumper, and since the last global tournament, he has developed his breakdown work. However, Du Toit remains the standard-bearer for the flanker that looks to impact the tight, and he is back to his best following that awful injury, which almost ended his career in 2020. The 31-year-old will not let England rest at the breakdown, while he is another of the Springboks’ superb lineout operators, so the Red Rose need to find a way of negating the effect he has on the match.
Prediction
Such is the gap between these sides that even if South Africa execute poorly, they should have enough to reach the final. England have been gallant throughout this World Cup, while their big players have produced some top-class displays, but we think their journey ends here. Springboks by 15 points.
Previous results
2022: South Africa won 27-13 in London
2021: England won 27-26 in London
2019: South Africa won 32-12 in Yokohama
2018: England won 12-11 in London
2018: England won 25-10 in Cape Town
2018: South Africa won 23-12 in Bloemfontein
2018: South Africa won 42-39 in Johannesburg
2016: England won 37-21 in London
2014: South Africa won 31-28 in London
2012: South Africa won 16-15 in London
The teams
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Jonny May, 13 Joe Marchant, 12 Manu Tuilagi, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 Owen Farrell (c), 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Courtney Lawes, 5 George Martin, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Jamie George, 1 Joe Marler
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Billy Vunipola, 21 Danny Care, 22 George Ford, 23 Ollie Lawrence
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Faf de Klerk, 22 Handre Pollard, 23 Willie le Roux
Date: Saturday, October 21
Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis
Kick-off: 21:00 local (20:00 BST, 19:00 GMT)
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: Mathieu Raynal (France), Paul Williams (New Zealand)
TMO: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)