England v Japan preview: Eddie Jones’ ‘discards’ to haunt Brave Blossoms in emphatic end to losing streak
England back-rowers Ben Earl and Chandler Cunningham-South and an insert of Japan head coach Eddie Jones.
It’s time for the main course after an enticing appetiser earlier this year as Eddie Jones returns to Twickenham with his Japan team to tackle his former employers and ex-assistant in Steve Borthwick’s England.
Jones arrives at his old stomping ground with his successor enduring a tough run of results, losing five on the bounce including three losses to the All Blacks and to each of South Africa and Australia.
The knives will be out for the outspoken and experienced Australian but it will be he who smells blood and will be keen to create another bit of history with the Brave Blossoms after masterminding their first-ever win over South Africa nine years ago.
However, that result came after four years of hard graft with the team and Jones just hasn’t had that time with the side that he has made plenty of changes to since taking over the reins earlier this year. In fact, good results have been hard to come by for Japan, who had lost three on the bounce before defeating Uruguay a week ago, while the Brave Blossoms’ defence has leaked over 20 points in each of their last 13 Tests.
As for a battered and bruised England, they have been in with a chance of winning the last five games they have fallen short in but ultimately have come undone in the final quarter. Borthwick’s men will be emotionally charged and hellbent on ending the year on a high and the historical stats are certainly on their side having won each of their five games against Japan while the Brave Blossoms have lost 14 of their last 15 matches against European sides, including each of their last 11 by an average margin of 22 points.
Where the game will be won
The old cliche of the game will be won up front doesn’t always ring true when it comes to Japan as the Brave Blossoms have time and time again lost up front but still come out on top – that is of course with regard to their scrums and lineouts. But where the Japanese do shine is at the breakdown where they are masters at producing rapid ruck speeds in order to hold onto the ball. This is highlighted by the fact that Japan have made the most carries per game of any Tier One nation in 2024 (132) and rank first for metres gained per game this year (538).
The selection of Tom Curry, Sam Underhill and Ben Earl in the England back-row suggests that Borthwick is well aware of the Japanese breakdown threat and has deployed his best breakdown experts to combat it. England’s defence has had its lapses this November despite preventing their opponents from crossing the gainline on a higher share of the carries than any other nation (50.0%). Any small fracture and misalignment will be punished by Japan.
Still, England are favourites heading into the match and if they can apply the pressure at the set-pieces and eke out penalties to march up field with the scrum, they can overwhelm the Japanese and cruise to victory. But if the Brave Blossoms can keep their noses clean at the set-pieces, they tick the first box at causing an unlikely upset.
England team: Steve Borthwick limits changes as rising star selected to face ‘dangerous’ Japan
Last time they met
What they said
Hooker Mamoru Harada has warned England that they will face a turbocharged Japan attack and one far more comfortable with Jones’ vision of ‘chosoku [super-fast] rugby’.
“The game in June was our first game of this campaign and the team was very young,” Harada told reporters.
“We have experienced 10 games now this year and we will show a different Japan this weekend. Only victory will be a success this weekend.”
Meanwhile centre Siosaia Fifita said that the team has been hard at work to get their fitness to the standard required to play Jones’ new style of play.
“When I first came into the camp, I didn’t know the training was going to be so hard and tough – harder than before – but I have enjoyed it,” he said.
“Watching the game in June, I thought Japan played really well, with good tempo, in the first 20 minutes against England, but I now understand that you when you are playing this style you get really fatigued.
“It is tough, but it is our style, and something we can feel strong about. We are also focused on our physicality because we are against the big boys of England.”
Borthwick is fully expecting a fast-paced game against the Japanese.
“We anticipate a tough challenge from a team that thrives on playing fast and with tempo,” he said.
“Japan are a dangerous team so it’s important that we execute our game plan and maintain focus throughout the full 80 minutes.”
Players to watch
Marcus Smith has been in sensational form this autumn despite England’s results and is arguably one of the form international players at the moment. He has produced moments of brilliance in all three Tests this November and has been incredibly accurate off the tee. The fast-paced game that the Japanese are promising fits Smith perfectly as he has thrived in those kind of matches with Harlequins for so long now. Tipped for greatness by Jones during his tenure as England boss, the playmaker is realising that potential and will be eager to throw down a real marker to close out the year.
There will be several England players not only desperate for a result on Sunday but also eager to prove a point to the Japan boss and perhaps none more so than livewire back-rower Ben Earl. The Saracens star was handed his debut by Jones but was discarded soon after and never selected again despite sterling showings for his club. That was until Borthwick took charge of the team and he has thrived ever since and nailed down a starting role in the team.
There are a handful of players in the same boat as Earl but the clash against Japan will see the future of English Rugby make its mark as Sale Sharks’ rising star Asher Opoku-Fordjour is set to earn his first cap and does so along with fellow young prop Fin Baxter. Following the retirement of Joe Marler, the departure of Kyle Sinckler and considering the age of Dan Cole, England were in dire need for the next generation of front-rowers to come through and Baxter and Opoku-Fordjour are precisely that.
There are many unfamiliar faces in the Japan team but one that certainly sticks out is Dylan Riley. The centre has been a revelation for Japan since making his international debut in 2021 but this year he has kicked his performances into another stratosphere. So far in 2024, he has scored seven tries and assisted another three, a try involvements tally that is unmatched among Tier One international players this year with England’s Smith one behind him (2 tries, 7 assists).
Elsewhere, it’s a testament to his quality that when Toulouse were looking for a back-up to Antoine Dupont, they turned to Japan captain Naoto Saito. He may be small in stature but Saito is very much a big match player and is the heartbeat of the Japanese attack. A wonderfully gifted player that will cause England all sorts of issues.
Jones loves a powerhouse centre and he has one partnering Riley in the form of Tongan-born midfielder Siosaia Fifita. He not only has the ability to punch holes in the defence but also has the soft skills required to fit into the Japanese attack.
Main head-to-head
With the breakdown and gainline set to be the real battleground on Sunday, it was hard to look past the showdown in the number seven jerseys between the in-form Sam Underhill and Japan’s superstar Kazuki Himeno.
Underhill was a shock omission from England’s matchday squad for the opening two games and produced a blinder against the Springboks. It’s always baffling when he is not in the squad particularly when he is in the kind of nick he is right now. This week, he combines with Curry once again, the combination Jones famously dubbed the “Kamikaze Kids” during the 2019 Rugby World Cup. The duo wreaked havoc in 2019 and are primed to do so once again this weekend with Earl adding further firepower from the number eight jumper.
Meanwhile, Himeno is a truly class operator in all facets of the game and will be out to impress once again at the home of English Rugby. If the Brave Blossoms are to cause an upset, he will be front and centre of their efforts with his brilliant breakdown work, superb ball carries and dynamite defence.
Prediction
England have been on a torrid run of form but in each of their last five defeats, they have been within touching distance of some of the best teams in the world. They have just lacked the finishing touches. This weekend they are unlikely to even need that as they face a Japan team that are simply in a different period in the development of their style and lack the same cohesion. The pressure will be on the hosts to perform and that emotional driver will play a big role in the match’s outcome but there looks to be only one winner in this one and it’s England by at least 20 points.
Previous results
2024: England won 52-17 in Tokyo
2023: England won 34-12 in Nice
2022: England won 52-13 at Twickenham
2018: England won 35-15 at Twickenham
1987: England won 60-7 in Sydney
The teams
England: 15 George Furbank, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Henry Slade, 11 Ollie Sleightholme, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Jack van Poortvliet, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Tom Curry, 5 George Martin, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George (c), 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Asher Opoku-Fordjour, 19 Nick Isiekwe, 20 Chandler Cunningham-South, 21 Harry Randall, 22 Fin Smith, 23 Tom Roebuck
Japan: 15 Takuro Matsunaga, 14 Tomoki Osada, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Siosaia Fifita, 11 Jone Naikabula, 10 Nicholas McCurran, 9 Naoto Saito, 8 Faulua Makisi, 7 Kazuki Himeno, 6 Kanji Shimokawa, 5 Epineri Uluiviti, 4 Sanaila Waqa, 3 Shuhei Takeuchi, 2 Mamoru Harada, 1 Takato Okabe
Replacements: 16 Seunghyuk Lee, 17 Yukio Morikawa, 18 Keijiro Tamefusa, 19 Daichi Akiyama, 20 Tevita Tatafu, 21 Ben Gunter, 22 Shinobu Fujiwara, 23 Yusuke Kajimura
Date: Sunday, November 24
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Twickenham
Kick-off: 16:10 GMT
Referee: Craig Evans (WRU)
Assistant Referees: Andrea Piardi (FIR), Morné Ferreira (SARU)
TMO: Olly Hodges (IRFU)
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