England v All Blacks prediction: Steve Borthwick’s men to ‘get revenge’ over New Zealand in win that ‘lays down a marker’
England and the All Blacks meet at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham.
England and the All Blacks square off for the fourth time since July 2024, and both sides will feel they have a point to prove on the Twickenham turf this weekend.
Steve Borthwick’s men are a completely different proposition to the one Scott Robertson’s tourists faced this time last year. England have won their last nine Tests in a row since last tasting defeat at the start of the Six Nations, a run which includes victories over France, Scotland, Argentina and Australia too, and come into this one full of confidence as a result.
The manner of their victories this month also shows just how far they have come since last year’s November Tests. In their wins over the Wallabies and Fiji, England blew their opponents away in the final quarter and eventually ran away with a comfortable triumph.
But, the All Blacks will also come to South West London fizzing, following their own run of victories. Since suffering their heaviest-ever defeat at the hands of the Springboks, Razor’s side have won their past four Tests against Australia (twice), Ireland and Scotland.
Around that, their wins over Ireland and Scotland both show they can beat teams in different ways. The victory in Chicago, avenging their 2016 defeat at the same venue, saw them pull away from Ireland as the game went on, eventually scoring three tries in the final 20 minutes for good measure. Against Scotland, they had to do it the hard way, leading 17-0 early on before seeing Gregor Townsend’s side claw back into it, but again, they held their nerve and struck with virtually the final play of the Test to come out victorious.
Where the game will be won
A big talking point ahead of this game is both teams’ replacements, and the battle of the benches will likely define the outcome of this Test.
Both sides have stacked their bench with serious talent. England have six British and Irish Lions tourists among their group, while the All Blacks have the likes of Tamaiti Williams, Wallace Sititi and Damian McKenzie among the replacements for good measure.
This is clearly an indication of their intent to end strongly and take the game away from their opponents, something they have both already done this autumn.
Whoever gets the most out of their bench should end the game victorious.
Last time they met
What they said
Speaking ahead of the game, England boss Borthwick warned his players this would not be a walk in the park, insisting his side will have to dig deep to come out winners.
“There is no doubt here that this team is going to have to dig very deep,” he told the media this week.
“This team is going to have to go to a place where there is pain and suffering. There is going to be the most selfless team performance England have produced, that’s how good New Zealand are.
“The players are going to have to give absolutely everything. You see a team that plays more and more with their heart.”
Hooker Jamie George echoed the words of the head coach, calling for his side not to ‘sit back in awe’ of their opposition.
“What a lot of teams do is sit back in awe of the All Blacks with their history,” he said.
“It’s easy to do that, but we’ve also got to be aware we’ll be back here at Allianz Stadium. We’re very proud to be playing here. We are going to do everything we can to win that game.
“You have to be at your best. New Zealand are arguably the best side in the world at the moment. They’re a fantastic team, and they seem to step up a gear when they come here (to England).
“The important thing for us to do is work out where we could have been better in the first-half (against Fiji), but also have a clear game plan which can put them under as much pressure as we can. If we do that, we’ll give ourselves a chance.”
All Blacks boss Robertson also called for his side to ’embrace the occasion’ this weekend.
“Twickenham is one of the iconic venues in world rugby,” he said. “There is nothing quite like hearing 80,000 fans singing ‘Swing Low’ to get the adrenaline pumping.
“Recent games against England have been incredibly close-fought, and both teams are coming off a run of wins, so we are expecting an epic clash on Saturday afternoon. We will embrace the atmosphere and the occasion.”
“It’s at the so-called home of rugby, with a full house and an expectant English team,” he added on BBC Five Live’s Rugby Union Weekly Podcast.
“We want a Grand Slam; they want to take our scalp. How good is footy?
“This is why I’m doing the job, and that’s where the enjoyment starts. There is a fine balance; you feel like you are never satisfied, but you love it.”
Players to watch
England will likely look to target New Zealand in the air, as they did Australia two weeks ago, and Tom Roebuck will be pivotal to any aerial success. The Sale man is quickly becoming a key weapon for Borthwick in that respect, but also offers a threat in the carry too and is a supreme finisher. Fellow wing Immanuel Feyi-Waboso is also establishing himself as one of England’s most potent weapons ball-in-hand, using his speed and power to break the game open and march his side forward, and could worry the All Blacks as a result.
Sam Underhill absolutely lives for games like this, and you again expect him to have a huge impact – both literally and figuratively – in defence, while fellow back-rower Ben Earl will again need to step up in the carry, and is in spellbinding form this November too.
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For the All Blacks, all eyes will again be on Ardie Savea. The totemic forward just oozes class, and if he has a good game, New Zealand usually win. Leroy Carter and Fabian Holland have both settled well to life in the Test arena, and this will again be a chance for them to show their value to this All Blacks side.
Leicester Fainga’anuku – whose middle name is Twickenham – is also proving a point upon his return to this All Blacks side, and could cause England some real issues ball-in-hand with his pace, power and sheer size.
Main head-to-head
For all the quality around the park and talk of Pom Squads, the battle between fly-halves George Ford and Beauden Barrett will likely have a major say on the outcome.
Both men will play a pivotal role in their side’s respective attacks. England are expected to revert back to their kicking game this weekend, highlighted by the selection of Ford and Roebuck together, and the Sale man is going to be called upon a lot to drive his side forward.
It suits him well, though. Ford is an expert game-reader, and his rugby IQ is surely in the ‘genius’ category, which allows him to predict where the space will open up in the backfield and send a wicked kick in that direction. That understanding also allows him to pick the right moment to kick, either as an attacking option or as a way of shifting pressure, and that in itself is a clever thing to have in your game.
All Blacks counterpart Barrett is not too dissimilar, but will likely look to play more ball-in-hand. New Zealand are deadly on the counter-attack, and Barrett plays a key role in that. His ability to find space quickly when the play starts to break up allows the likes of Jordan, Carter and even Quinn Tupaea to power through and cause havoc.
One thing that goes unnoticed about Barrett, though, is his own grubber kicking game, and England will need to be wary of it. His identification of space means he can just stab the ball into exactly the right areas, again prompting his outside backs to pour through and hunt for the ball. It also then flips the pressure back onto the opposition.
Around their individual qualities, they both bring heaps of leadership and experience to their respective teams, which will be so important in getting over the line.
Prediction
There’s a lot riding on this for both sides. For England, it’s a chance to lay down a real marker as one of the elite Test teams in the game right now, while for the All Blacks, it’s a chance to shake off that tag that they are there for the taking, which has loomed over them in recent years.
As recent history has proved, there’s not much to split these teams. Only the width of the post separated them last year at Twickenham, and the two Tests in New Zealand were decided on fine margins as well, so it will likely come down to the final moments this weekend too.
Looking across the previous November Tests, England just seem a different beast to what they were last year. They know how to close out games now, they know what it takes to blow a game open past the 60th minute, they know how to win.
It’ll be close, but our money is on Borthwick’s men to get revenge for last year. England by two.
Previous results
2024: New Zealand won 24-22 in London
2024: New Zealand won 24-17 in Auckland
2024: New Zealand won 16-15 in Dunedin
2022: England and New Zealand drew 25-25 in London
2019: England won 19-7 in Yokohama
2018: New Zealand won 16-15 in London
2014: New Zealand won 24-21 in London
2014: New Zealand won 36-13 in Hamilton
2014: New Zealand won 28-27 in Dunedin
2014: New Zealand won 20-15 in Auckland
The teams
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Guy Pepper, 5 Alex Coles, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie George, 1 Fin Baxter
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Chandler Cunningham-South, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Ben Spencer, 23 Marcus Smith
All Blacks: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Damian McKenzie
Date: Saturday, November 15
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Twickenham
Kick-off: 15:10 GMT (04:10 NZDT)
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR)
Assistant referees: Luc Ramos (FFR), Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)
FPRO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
