England latest: Predicting Steve Borthwick’s team with four big selection headaches for Wallabies showdown as star in the ‘form of his life’ misses out
We predict Fin Smith will start at 10 for England against Australia.
With Steve Borthwick announcing a squad that is focused more on evolution than revolution, we look at the key selection decisions ahead of the Australia Test on November 1.
Who steers the ship?
There’s little doubt that George Ford is in the form of his life for Sale Sharks. A consummate controlling and distributing 10, Ford offers so much to England still, but questions remain about his personal ability to truly challenge a defensive line and to get through and behind the primary defence. Whilst not one to shirk a hit, there’s little doubt that sides will target his channel with power runners on the other side of the ball, so whilst his case is compelling, there’s certainly arguments for and against.
Fin Smith is a man on a clear upward development slope. A brilliant defender and blessed with footwork and enough pace to challenge defences in front of him, his kicking game is only a smidgen behind Ford’s, and his distribution skills are evident every time Saints play. With Marcus Smith now holding that dreading ‘utility’ player moniker, we believe it’s a straight shoot out between Ford and F. Smith, and the answer still is unclear.
It really depends on who Borthwick believes will be his key man at Rugby World Cup 2027. For the chosen man, time in the saddle is a key component, and it might just be that the age and promise of F. Smith sees him usurp the incredible form and experience of Ford. However, we’d be happy with either, as would most nations!
Centres of attention
England have a simple first question to answer, and one that informs the rest of the centre debate. Does Ollie Lawrence play at 12 or 13? There’s little doubt that the Bath tyro starts, and there’s some that believe he’s more suited to inside centre at Test level. If that happens, then the experience and form of Henry Slade, someone used to defending the fold at 13, is almost certainly going to be picked at outside centre.
If Lawrence is to play on the outside, then it’s a straight shoot out at 12 between Fraser Dingwall and Max Ojomoh. This raises a great club combination debate; do you go with the known 10/12 Saints combination, or do you go for an all-Bath centre combination? It’s a tough call, with Ojomoh in sparkling form and Dingwall as robust and pragmatic as you’d ever want.
This boils down to timing; with Australia having a lot more time together than England, the Ojomoh option is high risk; we believe Borthwick will go safety first – that means Slade retains his place with Lawrence moving to 12.
However, there’s one more option and that involves the form man Tommy Freeman moving positions from the back three to 13. We have no issue with that but experiments of that nature may best be tried in as the Autumn Nations Series progresses, not first up against an in-form Tier One nation like Australia, and especially not against the best 13 in the world right now, Joseph Suaalii.
Back-row balance
The big news from the squad announcement on Monday night was the inclusion of Tom Curry, said to be fit for the first Test v Australia. However, rather paradoxically, this might just throw a spanner in the works of England’s clarity of thinking – here’s why.
Australia is a brilliant lineout and mauling outfit. Nick Frost is an arch poacher, and they go into every Test with four primary lineout options. England might well want to play a back-row of their three standouts; Curry (6) Ben Earl (8) and Sam Underhill (7) – a back-row built for pace, breakdown dominance and handling. However, it lacks a primary traffic carrier, despite the brilliance of Earl’s pacy carrying, and it certainly only has half a lineout option in Curry, who worked hard on his ability in that area on the Lions tour.
The other options are to pick the behemoth Chandler Cunningham-South on the blindside (Earl’s handling and carrying off the base is far superior) or to pick Bath’s Guy Pepper, at 6’4″, on one of the flanks. This in turn is also informed by Curry’s lack of game-time. Like the fly-half debate this is a positive problem, one caused by depth of option rather than lack of contenders, and on balance, we would go Cunningham-South, Earl and one of Underhill or Curry depending on the latter’s fitness, due to the sheer abrasion and lineout presence the mighty Quin offers.
The last line
Finally, we have the last line of defence, full-back. Given Australia’s kicking game, we want to see a back three with aerial ability and that in itself may see M. Smith relegated to the impact role covering the back three and 10.
That means a straight shootout between playing Tom Roebuck on the wing and Freeman at 15, or retaining Freeman in his usual position and bringing Freddie Steward in. Now, given the other wing is almost certainly going to be Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, we expect to see Freeman stay on the flanks, purely because he has a lot more history of playing on the left wing than Roebuck does. That leaves Steward the incumbent at 15, adding huge aerial stability to counter the Australian excellence in their kick chasing game, something that will be absolutely at the forefront of Borthwick’s thinking.
Our team:
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Ollie Lawrence, 11 Tommy Freeman, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Nick Isiekwe, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Ben Spencer, 23 Marcus Smith
