David Campese: Replicating Springboks’ ‘masterful’ tactics will expose ‘perplexing’ England as Wallabies great previews Twickenham showdown
Wallabies lock Will Skelton and an insert of legendary winger David Campese.
Ahead of the crunch clash between England and Australia at Twickenham Stadium, Wallabies great David Campese previews the Autumn Nations Series fixture with his five talking points.
England to hit the ground running
“We’re in a scenario where England have an advantage over Australia based upon the extra match against New Zealand and the momentum that they gained in that Test, despite the result,” Campese explained.
“The second Bledisloe Test is the last time the Wallabies played, some two months ago, and whilst there were signs of improvement, they still are nowhere near the level of defensive intensity and forward power that England have already shown and I think it’ll be a really hard day on the gain-line and at the breakdown for the Australians.
“Two months is a long time in Test rugby terms – especially when you’re playing in different climatic conditions against a group of players that you don’t come across often, certainly at domestic level, and I feel that the close defeat England endured will really galvanise their resolve.
“They also simply must turn around the perception of nearly men; the close losses against France, New Zealand three times and the Rugby World Cup semi-final against South Africa will be weighing heavily on their mind. They might deny it, they’ll talk about learning and trajectory, but take it from me, deep down they will have doubts about their ability to close games off, and that offers Australia their best chance.
Play 80 minutes
“I saw an interesting stat that England average just three points in the last quarter of their matches under Steve Borthwick. I then look at the five close losses I alluded to and they have one commonality- in each instance, England were ahead after 60 minutes.,” Campese confirmed.
“Now that confirms one of two things- either England have a fitness issue or their bench is simply not impacting the way their starters are.
“Personally, I think it’s a combination of both, coupled with taking off players who are in control of the match.
“Hearing Borthwick’s comments about his replacement strategy on Saturday last, he said something along the lines of ‘When you have the talent of Ford and co why wouldn’t you put them on?’ Now, I couldn’t disagree more with this simply because it smacks of preplanning and suggests that the strategy is not based on live data and what’s happening in front of the coaches’ eyes.
“Taking Marcus Smith and Ben Spencer off when they had the game under control against the All Blacks was absolutely ridiculous – what was there to gain with the new men? Was it higher or lower risk to continue with the incumbents? I think we all know the answer to that!
“So the Wallabies, a side that demonstrated good fitness and staying power in the latter stages of their Rugby Championship campaign need to box clever: Load the bench with quality in the knowledge that England are weakest in the last 20.
“Specifically, Will Skelton and Taniela Tupou are not 60 or 70-minute players. But in the last 25 minutes, if they come on England have nothing to compete with their power and Schmidt would be wise to box clever and hold them back to when England are at their most vulnerable.
“Stay one score in touch and the game is there for the taking in the last 20.”
Red Zone Contrast
“England made four visits into the All Blacks’ 22 for a combined total of just over two minutes in their red zone in the Test last weekend. Over half of those minutes were in the last five of the game when England had a scrum versus 14 men yet failed to attack and retain against a numerical weakness, something I find perplexing. Rather than go for the kill with the ball in hand the focus was on the drop goal and I feel that this weekend, they need to show far more ambition with ball in hand and threaten the line and red zone far more.
“South Africa are masters at holding onto the ball in these scenarios and eroding the defensive system with waves of pressure and retention around the 22m, which means they’re always in a position to take boot points or break a tiring defence. England simply don’t exert as much pressure around that 22m line, something that Australia will be well aware of.
“The Wallabies have a very good points conversion record when in the opposition red zone; if they can get forward momentum, and they have the back row carriers to make some big dents, then the relative efficiency of both sides will fall in Australia’s favour.”
England Midfield
“Continuing on the theme of England’s attacking inefficiency, I noted that Henry Slade and Ollie Lawrence have swapped centre positions this weekend,” Campese continued.
“Now, some might think this is no biggie, but I disagree. England are in a compromise situation – Slade is a brilliant and dogged defender at 13, the hardest position to defend, but on the flip side his pace and distribution is way behind that of Lawrence, who is easily the best attacking 13 England have.
“I believe we’ll see England employ a hybrid formation. Expect to see Slade at 13 in defence, but Lawrence there in first phase attack. If Lawrence is at 13 in defence, then expect to see Australia flood that channel with waves around the corner off nine and ten.
“On the flip side, Slade at 12 means less metres for direct carries from the big Aussie loose forwards and centres.
“It’s a very interesting call by England, one I fully understand, but I’ll be interested to see what they gain from last weekend over the defensive solidity they showed.”
Australia DNA
“Very lastly, if Australia are to pull off a win on Saturday, then they have to play the Aussie way.
“I am aware of rumours around Rugby Australia that Joe Schmidt is unlikely to continue past the Lions series 2025- mainly due to health issues in his immediate family- and I wish him all the best in coping with that.
“Today appears to be a day that’s characterised by political comebacks (!) word is that RA are already talking to Micheal Cheika about a return to the Wallaby head coach role after his sojourn to Leicester Tigers, who I believe are already prepping for this eventuality by entering into a dialogue with Graham Rowntree in terms of a succession plan.
“For me, Schmidt is a great organiser but he is too controlling. Australia’s way is creation, invention and flair, not rumbling mauls from 30m out. That will play into England’s hands and they know how to arm wrestle a team into submission.
“Australia need to play free and wide, pull the big English forwards around the park and then use that power on the bench to good effect.
“Many Poms see this as a game they can’t lose, but from what I have seen, England are capable of losing any game they play in those last 20 and Australia need to box clever and react to the game in front, not run preplanned moves all day which simply don’t reflect our rugby culture and values.”
