David Campese: Grim predictions for ‘walking wounded’ as ‘plucky losers’ fall to All Blacks, Springboks and Wallabies
David Campese makes his predictions for the weekend's action.
After a thrilling weekend of Test rugby where the Southern Hemisphere saw a clean sweep in the three big games, David Campese joins James While to give us his predictions on this Saturday’s action.
All Blacks v England
“I was very impressed with some of the English play last weekend, particularly the attacking axis of Alex Mitchell, George Furbank and Marcus Smith and they pushed the Kiwis down to the wire,” he said.
“But England’s challenge is they’re fast gaining that plucky losers tag. In three or four big games – South Africa in the Rugby World Cup, France in Lyon and the All Blacks last weekend, they’ve lost by a point or two only, but have ultimately failed to get over the line in games they could and should have closed out.
“Now some will say that this is part of the journey – maybe there’s some truth in that, but champion sides win these marginal matches and so far, the Poms under Borthwick have failed at that last hurdle. It’s something they need to change up and change up bloody quickly, but at Eden Park against the All Blacks, who now have a game under their belt, it’s a tough ask. If England continue to lose these edge games, then self-doubt will seep in, no matter how well they’ve played.
“For me, it’s the set-piece and floor battle where England need to up their game. New Zealand got the edge on both last weekend and that’s what saw them home, although it goes without saying that leaving eight points out there with the boot didn’t help matters.”
Head-to-head: “At eight, Ben Earl topped tackle and carry count last weekend without ever having a telling influence on the scoreline. If he can get the better of the brilliant Ardie Savea, England can build off his dynamism.”
Players to watch: “Alex Mitchell has an opportunity to boss the game from nine, and his coach needs to have faith in him. For New Zealand, Mark Telea’s work in beating men in chaos is a key component of his brilliant game.”
Campo’s call: “The All Blacks always improve after their first game. Do England have more to give? I’m not sure they do. 32-19 is my call to the hosts.”
Wallabies v Wales
“As I said in my Planet Rugby column earlier in the week, I was mightily proud of how Australia played in terms of their finishing and their set-piece. Sure, there’s work to be done in the backline but that will come if Joe Schmidt keeps the faith with the midfield players, allowing them to bed in an understanding of each other,” said Campese.
“Wales are walking wounded, both metaphorically and physically. The loss of Aaron Wainwright, easily their best player this season, is huge and although the back-row they’ve picked is decent, they’ll miss Wainwright’s carrying and work rate.
“Wales need to find firepower against an improving defence and whilst their back three is excellent, the midfield is popgun compared to their teams of old. It’ll be a game decided by defence and counter attack, and I am hopeful that the Wallabies can go out there and make a statement.”
Head-to-head: “Cameron Winnett looked a very accomplished player when we saw him earlier this season and his individual duel with Tom Wright, outstanding last weekend, will be a key battle.”
Players to watch: “Taine Plumtree needs to carry on where Wainwright left off, and that’s a big ask. I also love the balance of the Welsh back three and if they get turnover ball on the counter they can go the length in the blink of an eye. For the Wallabies, a big focus on Rob Valetini, a man I’ve been critical of in the past but played a much more intelligent and complete game last weekend.”
Campo’s call: “Wales play for the shirt and they never give up, but other than the counter, I can’t see where they can score consistently from. It’s the Wallabies by 15 for me – 27-12 as Joe Schmidt’s men build upon the first Test.”
Springboks v Ireland
“As I wrote yesterday, Ireland’s attacking game has really suffered since Johnny Sexton retired and Jamison Gibson-Park got injured. The inclusion of Ringrose back at 13 will add a lot in terms of creativity, and he threatens the 13 channel with brilliant and explosive footwork,” the Wallaby great explained.
“But that midfield also needs to defend – and last weekend Ireland got too narrow on a number of occasions. Tony Brown’s attacking patterns saw the Bok loosies adding an extra man in the wide channels and the wings played off that man, either running deadly cutback lines into midfield or going around the outside as the extra back-rower gave the Boks a numerical advantage.
“When you’ve got gas merchants like Cheslin Kolbe or Kurt-Lee Arendse to make those running lines then once they’re past the narrow primary defence, the scramble simply cannot cope with the pace and Ireland found that out the hard way.
“Ireland need to scrummage as well as they did in the first half and never as badly as they did in the second! Set-piece is all against the Boks – you might not beat them, but you need to match them and it’s interesting that Tadhg Beirne comes in on the blindside and James Ryan into lock to give Ireland more ballast, but also more mobility around the park in carry.”
Head-to-head: “Jesse Kriel was absolutely immense for the Boks last weekend and with Ringrose back, the Leinsterman needs to play both sides of the ball to give his team a hope.”
Players to watch: “Andrew Porter’s battle with both Bok tightheads will be scrutinised by referee Karl Dickson and that’s a key feature of the game. I also will be interested to see how James Lowe works off the precision in attack that Ringrose will bring.”
Campo’s call: “Ireland have lost a couple but have also made some shrewd changes, but given the Boks have broken that eight-year Irish hoodoo, I think they’ll build off their win and complete another clean sweep for the Southern Hemisphere and take the match 28-15.”