David Campese: ‘Bleak’ Wales will fail to exploit Scottish weakness as ‘perennial underachievers’ bounce back
David Campese previews the Six Nations clash between Scotland and Wales.
With Scotland hosting a Wales team that showed signs of rejuvenation in their defeat against Ireland in Round Four of the 2025 Six Nations, David Campese returns to Planet Rugby to give his views on the form and futures of the teams.
Fan’s favourite
There’s always something about Scotland playing Wales that makes you look forward to an open and exciting game.
It’s a deadly rivalry, that’s for sure, but this is a fixture where you expect to see some attacking flair, for the game to be played fully in the right spirit and for entertainment to be delivered in a wholesome way.
This year, we have the added spice of two teams that are along different parts of their own journey. Scotland have become perennial Six Nations underachievers given their brilliant backline and they’ve promised much but delivered a lot less, other than their impressive performances in the Calcutta Cup against England, until this season.
Wales, on the other hand, are emerging from turmoil at both regional and national level. Never have things been so bleak in the Principality, a place where rugby often defines the very mood of the nation. Whilst Scotland have had clarity in their systems and selections, Wales have never experienced such a deeply uncertain period in their rugby lives and it’s to the credit of Matt Sherratt that after one game in charge, that he’s given the nation hope, despite not yet managing to break their losing streak.
With such high stakes for both teams, I still expect to see an open and entertaining match; with neither side really having elite Test physicality, you can rely upon a skill-based game, one where attack and ambition will thrive, and that’s something that excites me greatly.
Welsh potential
Let’s look at where Wales are first. They’re a nation, like New Zealand, that historically punches so far above their own weight it’s untrue. Forwards grow an inch and a stone when they wear that red shirt and the pride in the Welsh badge and the heritage that logo holds cannot be underestimated.
Rugby is part of the Welsh culture – something that used to define the fortunes of the steelworkers and miners who worked to survive but played rugby to live. Whilst those industries have declined, the love of the sport remains and it’s incumbent upon every Welsh player to carry that heritage on their shoulders as they run out to battle, so their recent form has been devastating for their proud supporters and wider game community.
With Sherratt, he’s already created a degree of organisational clarity simply by picking the best available players in their optimal positions – a simple but often overlooked premise in the modern game. Against Ireland, Gareth Anscombe gave them shape at ten, whilst the return of the world-class centurion, Taulupe Faletau at eight, gave them real bosh on the gainline.
My only question around selection this weekend is their back-row choices; whilst I can understand the plan to effectively play two sevens on the flank in Jac Morgan and Tommy Reffell, I wonder if this is safety first to negate the jackal threat of Jamie Ritchie and Rory Darge, rather than trying to be proactive and exploiting Scottish weakness over and above playing to Welsh strengths?
Personally, I’d have brought Aaron Wainwright into the blindside and left Reffell out, simply because Scotland showed against England they lack gainline punch, and with Wainwright, Morgan and Faletau you’d have three wonderful carriers to really take the game to the Scots.
However, on the flip side, Morgan and Reffell’s expertise will ensure that Wales have chances to keep the scoreboard ticking. Their pace will also be useful in supporting the aerial tramline drop zone battle, an area that their young winger, Tom Rogers, has already shown he thrives in.
My biggest fear for Wales is whilst they can keep the scoreboard ticking over, do they have the firepower to really move it forward incrementally?
Power of Scotland
Conversely, when you look at the Scots, you realise they have the firepower in the backline to make massive score dents. But the flip question is do they have the power in the contest areas, gain-line and breakdown, to on one hand, supply enough ball for their backs to use, and on the other, to keep Wales at bay?
It’s a difficult one but I cannot help but go back to the match stats against England; 58% possession, 60% territory are incredible numbers in the modern game. Couple that with the 220-odd tackles England made and you can only conclude that Scotland really struggled to break down the primary defence.
Maybe Scotland were drawn into an arm-wrestle they should have avoided; they’re the epitome of everything I was about as a player – intuitive, fast and prepared to take a risk – and I didn’t see those qualities emerge against England.
The other factor is that both Scotland and Finn Russell just haven’t been as effective as they were when Sione Tuipulotu was fit and at 12. I think he gave the Scots gain-line punch, plus also giving Russell defensive cover and a second set of eyes, and I think it’s fairly obvious they miss Tuipulotu’s presence hugely.
The bottom line
The bottom line is, that if Scotland rediscover the points of differentiation that makes them special, and they can improve their carrying return, this should be theirs for the taking.
Wales don’t have any threat close to the likes of Huw Jones, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Blair Kinghorn and Darcy Graham in their backline, but turning that around, I do feel Wales have a significant advantage in the back five of their pack, with both Will Rowlands and Dafydd Jenkins both very capable Test locks in addition to that back-row.
So the equation boils down to if Scotland can get enough ball to score and if Wales can score enough points from the assets they are fielding. That can boil down to some really fine margins and often rests upon who wins two or three key moments in the match.
I think this one will be a tight affair, but I can’t see the Scots playing as badly as they did against England and I’ll call them by ten, say 31-21. It’s not quite the result Wales will wish for and perhaps Max Boyce might have to delay the release of his new triple album, but I do also expect to see the men in red give all for the cause.
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