Champions Cup: Five reasons Toulouse will beat Leinster in Saturday’s semi-final

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Leinster are clear favourites going into this weekend’s Champions Cup semi-final, but their opponents, five-time winners Toulouse, should absolutely not be discounted.

We delve into the areas which Les Rouge et Noir can exploit going into the massive encounter at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday.

Antoine Dupont

Quite simply, the best player in the world. Josh van der Flier may have that official title at the moment but Dupont is the man who sits above the rest in the game. There is nothing he does poorly and continues to improve aspects of his game you didn’t think was possible.

For example, the French genius already had one of the best kicking games in the sport, yet he had to make it even more difficult for opponents by becoming genuinely Ambipedal – able to kick equally well off both feet. Dupont rarely gets charged down, partly because of the speed he gets the ball from hand to foot, but also thanks to his ability to switch direction of the kick in an instant.

Many have tried to stop this incredible player but few, if any, have succeeded. Even in Ireland’s impressive victory over France in the Six Nations, a match the hosts controlled in most facets, Dupont still made significant impacts, both with and without the ball.

As an opposing side, you almost have to accept that the Toulouse scrum-half will put in at least an eight out of 10 performance and that in itself is a worry for Leinster. If a player in that vital decision-making position is guaranteed to play well then that always gives his team a chance.

Francois Cros and resourcing the rucks

The most efficient cleanout operation in rugby union meets the game’s best ruck destroyer on Saturday. It is worth remembering that Cros was unavailable for the recent Six Nations clash between Ireland and France, and that Les Bleus immediately improved following his introduction.

Jonathan Danty also had a massive impact on Les Bleus but the 29-year-old’s influence was arguably even greater. Cros is not just a brilliant individual operator, he automatically adds balance to the back-row, as well as the rest of the team, thanks to his work at the contract area.

Toulouse are all about quick ball and Cros’ accuracy, work ethic, athleticism and technique means that he is invaluable in that area, making the job slightly easier for Dupont. Those two together bring calm to the chaos, allowing what looks like a mess to become a well-oiled machine.

When Les Rouge and Noir have the ball, Cros’ efforts enable them to play at pace, but equally, when they are without it, the back-rower kills opposition momentum. You just need to watch the game against England to see what he can do, and Leinster will have to be very wary of that.

The Irish province are outstanding at getting quickly to the breakdown, cleaning out and getting the ball away, so they don’t tend to commit many numbers. However, against this Toulouse loose trio, which also includes England pilferer Jack Willis, they will need to be more attentive. As a result, Leinster’s natural game may well play into Cros’ – and Toulouse’s – hands.

Starting well, scoring tries and pressure

Leinster are such a slick operation that they tend to land a knockout blow early and simply ease away from their opponents over the first hour. Their speed of ball, as well as their movement off it, leaves their enemies perplexed, giving them a chance to control the game on the scoreboard from the early stages.

Leo Cullen’s men can score tries in a variety of ways and, ultimately, few teams in Europe have the firepower to match them, but Toulouse do. Ugo Mola’s outfit will know the importance of starting quickly and being on the front foot from the off this weekend, while their talent throughout the XV gives them a chance of crossing the whitewash with regularity.

No side has beaten the Irishmen without scoring between three and four tries so having that pace, guile and power is key, facets Les Rouge et Noir possess in abundance. When you add in the pressure Leinster will inevitably be under, Toulouse could well get out to an early lead and force the hosts to chase. And that is certainly not a position the Dubliners will want to be in.

There is huge expectation on Cullen’s charges. They have been incredibly dominant so far this season, with their progress so serene that most are anticipating the blue machine to claim their fifth ‘European’ top-tier title. With the final also at the Aviva Stadium, everything is set up for a Leinster triumph, but that in itself increases the burden on the team.

Even for the best sides around, pressure does funny things and they do not want to be chasing a game against a side as lethal as Toulouse. If they are then they may well be left disappointed in the Champions Cup once again.

The virtuosos against the orchestra

Everything this Leinster side do is in sync. The cohesion they get from playing together at both provincial and international level means that they are very much like an ensemble, with everyone knowing their roles and doing it in such a calm but clinical fashion to create a beautiful symphony.

However, if the Irish outfit are akin to an orchestra then Toulouse, by contrast, are their prog rock alternatives. No less skilful, no less cohesive but more staccato, more powerful and with sudden changes in rhythm and time signatures, and using a variety of modes and textures.

The players have an equal amount of ability but they have more of a chance to shine individually with Dupont playing his ridiculously technical guitar solo or Emmanuel Meafou drumming his way through yet another would-be tackler.

It appears chaotic at times but there is very much a thought process behind it all and one which will put the hosts under pressure this weekend. As a result, the French rockers could well drown out Leinster’s symphony and make their way into the showpiece event.

Power game

Rugby has changed plenty over the years but the one constant has always remained and that is physicality. If you don’t win the battle up front, or at least gain parity with your opponents, you can effectively write off your chances.

Leinster have some massive units but Toulouse, especially in the form of Meafou, have bigger. And after the Irishmen’s struggles against La Rochelle’s Will Skelton, who has bullied them over the past two seasons, another gargantuan Australian will cause them pain this weekend.

With Cyril Baille, Julien Marchand and Jack Willis also in situ, they have some genuinely large men who can dominate the tighter exchanges. Cullen’s side may well be the Ireland team in all but name, but this Toulouse outfit form the spine of the France XV, with some interesting additions, such as Meafou, Willis and Pita Ahki, making them a fearsome unit.

It is almost a precursor to the Rugby World Cup, another chance for the Irish and French Test stars to lay down a marker prior to the global tournament. The enormity of this match cannot be overstated as Leinster and Toulouse face off in arguably the biggest game before the World Cup starts.

READ MORE: Champions Cup: Leinster not short of motivation for clash with ‘five star’ Toulouse

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