Ben Youngs’ Investec Champions Cup: Round of 16 predictions, South Africa’s shame and the fixture that will deliver all-court entertainment
Stormers star Damian Willemse and ex-England scrum-half Ben Youngs.
In his fifth exclusive Investec Champions Cup column for Planet Rugby, For The Love Of Rugby co-host Ben Youngs names the teams he expects to win through to the quarter-finals, writes off the chances of the two remaining South African sides and singles out an English rookie as ‘a real great prospect’.
Northampton Saints v Castres Olympique (Friday, 8pm local time)
I don’t see anything but a Northampton win. They have been building momentum quite nicely. They will be very happy with their result last weekend against Saracens and the form they are in. They will go out here, play well and just get a professional job done.
Saints have got their style of game, players are finding form and others are coming back fit again, which is great. I’m really pleased to see George Furbank back. He’s had a bad run of injuries and even got knocked out in last year’s Champions Cup final. Furbank is going to be missed, as he is moving to Harlequins. He is a slick operator, so I expect him to have a big, big impact for the remainder of the season.
Young scrum-half Archie McParland had a couple of nice tries against Saracens. He is clearly learning from Alex Mitchell and the great speed of ball that he is playing with. He took his opportunity really nicely last weekend with support lines and things like that.
He is experiencing being fast-tracked and you are seeing someone who is more than capable of mixing it in big games. In Europe, the magnitude of the games feel big, so The Showdown at Saracens was the perfect sort of run because he is not going to feel the same pressure on Friday night. He looks like a real great prospect. PREDICTION: Northampton by 20 points
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Bath Rugby v Saracens (Saturday, 3pm local time)
I can’t see anything but a Bath win. Saracens went there the other week in the PREM and got beaten pretty well. They also lost again at The Showdown, so Bath will be too strong. They will be confident that they have the game plan and style to beat Saracens who, on the back of losing to Northampton, are just not quite firing at the level we have so consistently seen over the years.
Looking at Saracens from the outside, their defence used to squeeze and almost bully you. They’d win the collisions and that doesn’t seem to be getting the vice on teams that it once did. They’d just pressure you and churn out wins, but they are not able to physically get on top of teams the way they once did.
Bath is a physical team, a big pack. It’s Johann van Graan and that sort of South African mindset, how he sets them up, and I don’t see Saracens being able to physically dominate Bath. I wouldn’t say there is anyone in particular tearing down trees for Bath; I just think they are so well-drilled and extremely clear about what their style of play is.
But if I have to say one man who will have a big game, it will be Thomas du Toit, a guy who is leaving at the end of the season. His scrummaging, his ability to jackal over a ball – someone like him can have an important role this weekend. He was rolled out as a sub last weekend, so he will be nice and fresh to start and have a big game. PREDICTION: Bath by 15 points
RC Toulon v DHL Stormers (Saturday, 4pm local time)
Had the Stormers been at home, I’d go for them, but I see Toulon as a bit of a dark horse. They will win this and qualify nicely for the quarter-finals. Stormers are going alright in the United Rugby Championship but Toulon, because of the tricky Top 14 situation they are in, no one is really talking about them and expecting them to do quite well.
I don’t know what it is with the French teams; sometimes chaos just follows them. But when you actually look at it, they have still got plenty of firepower and players that are more than capable. There is a bit of turmoil with their coaching, but it comes back to the players: Are the players willing to buy in and rip in for the shirt? They have got a pretty good fanbase down there, so they will turn up and get the job done.
Sometimes, a new competition is refreshing for struggling teams. Away from the Top 14, they will quietly go about their business. People may not recognise them as genuine Champions Cup contenders, but they are on the right-hand side of the knockout draw and I feel they can go alright. PREDICTION: Toulon by 20 points
Glasgow Warriors v Vodacom Bulls (Saturday, 5.30pm local time)
Glasgow got a good win in the URC against Leinster the other week, albeit the Irish side had a lot of players unavailable. Scotstoun is a bit of a fortress – we have seen other teams like Toulouse go there and lose this season – and Franco Smith is doing wonders. With their Scotland players back and firing, I see this as very much Glasgow getting the job done and qualifying.
I don’t see the Bulls going there and winning. If you look at the Bulls in the pool stages, they struggled, weren’t consistent, lost several games and sort of scraped through. Set-piece will always be their threat but with the travel, it’s going to take a big performance, but Glasgow will be too strong.
Ultimately, it’s going to be another season without a South African team firing deep in the Champions Cup and it’s a shame. It’s crying out for them at some point to get a real hold of the competition and get the job done but I can’t see the Bulls (or Stormers) qualifying for the next round. PREDICTION: Glasgow by 10 points
Stade Toulousain v Bristol Bears (Saturday, 6.30pm local time)
If you want all-court entertainment, this is the one. If the sun is shining, expect this game to be played at lightning pace. Think of the amazing Bristol game at the Bulls and the high scoring, this could be pretty high scoring as well.
I don’t see Bristol having enough because Toulouse will bring back all their internationals to add to their power game, the offloads and the pace, but neutral fans will be highly entertained by the free-flowing, fast rugby. Toulouse will be too strong, but Bristol will put on a bit of a show, and it will be two teams full of attacking intent.
I always think post-Six Nations is when Bristol get a run together because the track starts to harden up and that helps the style they play, but it just hasn’t clicked for them in the PREM. Last weekend against Quins, in particular, was a real disappointment. They built, went multi-phase and it never really led anywhere.
It felt like it was ‘this is our match at the Principality, the big stage, and you are here to sort of participate’. You just can’t go in with that approach and Quins shocked them. It was a bit of a wake-up call but sometimes, a bit like I said about Toulon, when you do switch competitions, it’s refreshing and you can refocus the mind.
This is a free swing at Toulouse. No one is expecting Bristol to win, so they can go there and play that loose, high-tempo, great style and see what comes of it. They will go okay this weekend. I don’t see them having enough, but they might get back to the Bristol we so often sit down and enjoy watching. PREDICTION: Toulouse by 20 points
Harlequins v Sale Sharks (Saturday, 8pm local time)
These are two teams far below their expectation and the level which we have so often seen. They are teams desperate to find some sort of form and while Sale will have enough to beat Quins, I don’t see this being one of the top three games this weekend. Let’s put it that way.
These English teams have struggled domestically and with their top-four ambitions in the league gone, this knockout game is an opportunity to get some momentum in their season.
Quins are still trying to fix the repercussions of head coach Danny Wilson leaving at the beginning of the season and they have now decided to give assistant Jason Gilmore the job. Sometimes you can be obsessed with big names or people from abroad.
I know Robbie Deans is coming in as that sort of overlooker, but there is something to be said of someone [Gilmore] who knows the league, understands the league, is already at the club and gets it. Sometimes, the PREM has been obsessed with getting coaches from abroad who don’t necessarily understand it.
They have searched and if they felt anyone else wasn’t quite the right fit, then maybe the person in the room is the right guy and he just needs a bit of support and help around him. Someone like the vastly experienced Deans can offer that. PREDICTION: Sale by 8 points
#ThrowbackThursday to 2021 when @LeicesterTigers beat Bordeaux in France…
5 years later, could they do it again? 👀
Form guide ahead of the #InvestecChampions knockouts ➡️ https://t.co/yPQOl2c7nV pic.twitter.com/GzEPGnzuwa
— Investec Champions Cup (@ChampionsCup) March 26, 2026
Union Bordeaux-Bègles v Leicester Tigers (Sunday, 4pm local time)
I have been really impressed with Leicester and how they have gone about it with Geoff Parling coming in. Ollie Chessum is in great form and Billy Searle is playing great rugby at 10 – he is an example that you don’t need to go get world-class or established internationals as your 10, you can get guys that can just play a system really well and he is an example of that.
But Bordeaux have been just outstanding in the pool stages. They beat Toulouse a couple of weeks ago, albeit Toulouse had a load of internationals away. Bordeaux will have too much for Leicester, but the game will be a nice watch.
I didn’t play in the December 2024 game, but I was there and at times it was a masterclass of turnover ball. Any time Leicester coughed up the ball, Bordeaux were just so ruthless from turnovers and scored within one to two phases within that knock on or turnover.
All aspects of your game have to be watertight, whether it be set-piece, your attacking breakdown or the way you control the ball because as soon as you turn it over, they have such a threat that they can just make something happen.
Damian Penaud and Louis Bielle-Biarrey light up any stadium and get you off the edge of your seat, but Leicester will be very similar to Bristol in terms of that mindset of having a free swing here.
Hamish Watson is a great signing with Tommy Reffell being out. You will need him to stand up and deliver. Olly Cracknell as well as the eight. You need a big shift from the back-rowers, Chessum in the second-row and then in terms of the backs, Orlando Bailey is playing really nice rugby but he is going to have to create and be that extra distributor at 12.
Leicester have to create and score tries. This is not going to be a really tense, 15-12 arm wrestle. It’s going to be expansive, and Leicester are going to have to find points. PREDICTION: Bordeaux by 15 points
Leinster Rugby v Edinburgh Rugby (Sunday, 5:30pm local time)
Leinster were stuttery in the pool stages, but that wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. A lot of their Ireland Six Nations players have found some really good form, so they will now transfer that. It’s showtime for these guys to stand up now with the knockout stages, something these big players thrive on, so Leinster will flick the switch now.
There is good quality in that room and the bigger the magnitude of the game, the more those guys deliver. You have seen it in the Irish shirt – when the heat was on, they absolutely delivered. They will get it right when it is needed, and the time to start dialling it up is now.
It’s really strange that Edinburgh gave coach Sean Everitt his two-year extension in January. It’s as if all the players have gone, ‘Hang on a minute, none of us were asked’. I don’t know anyone there to actually know the inside information, but certainly something doesn’t seem right, and there is no form to say they can go there and get the job done. PREDICTION: Leinster by 20-odd points
Leinster v Edinburgh latest: Scotland duo out as Sean Everitt issues ‘nothing to lose’ cry
World-class partnership
Maxime Lucu and Matthieu Jalibert. When you watch Bordeaux-Leicester on Sunday, tune in to this partnership as it is going to be pretty important. You will have Antoine Dupont-Romain Ntamack the previous day with Toulouse as well, so take your pick. They will be pivotal given the likelihood is that Toulouse will face Bordeaux away the following weekend in the quarter-finals. How good is that!
EPCR Challenge Cup
This is the time of year the Challenge Cup comes alive. As much as we talk about the Champions Cup, there are some great showdowns this weekend and Montpellier at home to Perpignan is an interesting one. They are going well in the Top 14, but can they go on a bit of a cup run here?
It’s really important for a team’s development. Leicester reached the 2021 final and went on to win the PREM the following year. We played Ulster at home in the semi-final and they walked away that day thinking how on earth did they lose that, and we left thinking how on earth did we win it?
Look, ultimately it is an opportunity to go and win a cup and I really enjoyed that cup run. It was at a time when Leicester were building towards something and the Challenge Cup felt more achievable than ever getting near the Champions Cup.
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