Ben Youngs’ Investec Champions Cup: Quarter-final predictions, why Sale have lost a bit of their identity and what will nudge Toulouse to victory
Ben Youngs’ Investec Champions Cup: Quarter-final predictions, why Sale have lost a bit of their identity and what will nudge Toulouse to victory
In his sixth exclusive Investec Champions Cup column for Planet Rugby, For The Love Of Rugby co-host Ben Youngs predicts one away quarter-final winner, sizes up the Harry Byrne versus George Ford head-to-head in Dublin and explains why he feels compelled to fly to Bordeaux and embrace Sunday’s all-French affair in person.
Bath Rugby v Northampton Saints (Friday, 8pm local time)
If you are not familiar with these English teams or don’t watch them too much, you will see really high-tempo, entertaining rugby. It’s going to be a contrast in styles: Northampton will be desperate to break away into a sort of loose, frantic game while Bath will try to keep a very structured manner to it.
I am really looking forward to seeing Northampton’s Fraser Dingwall going up against Max Ojomoh, that duel in the midfield between the two 12s who are battling for the England shirt.
You are also going to see Tommy Freeman against Joe Cokanasiga; there are mouth-watering match-ups across the board, including Henry Pollock versus Sam Underhill, Callum Chick against Alfie Barbeary. It just feels like the list goes on, really, and the outcome is so hard to call.
Northampton went to The Rec not so long ago after Christmas with a mixed team and they got the job done but with Trevor Davison unavailable, Bath’s Thomas du Toit might just edge the scrum and squeeze them.
Bath weren’t under the pump last weekend in the first half, but Saracens were squeaking out penalties at the scrum, getting territory and shots at goal. Du Toit then comes on, the whole momentum changes and it’s Bath who are getting the penalties and territory.
Saracens had a really big second-half chance just short of the line, and then Bath’s ability to turn defence into attack was an absolute masterclass. Finn Russell getting that ball away, Cokanasiga going up the touchline and then Ben Spencer eventually scoring in the right-hand corner. That was an absolute belter.
Du Toit had a big impact, and Bath are going to rely on him again to squeeze penalties set-piece-wise and put the Saints under pressure, but I do think second row JJ van der Mescht is going to have a big game for Northampton. His ability to win collisions is vital as Bath have some big hitters.
Watching Northampton against Castres, it looked like they felt they didn’t need to be at their best and maybe fell into that trap of thinking it would be a bit of a formality. They got the job done in the end, but they know they need to be at their best to get the job done this Friday.
There is also the psychological battle to consider. These two teams are likely to meet again in the league in terms of the PREM later down the line, and you want to have that psychological bit that says, ‘We can beat these guys’. But I feel home advantage will tilt this result. PREDICTION: Bath by three points
Glasgow Warriors v RC Toulon (Saturday, 3pm local time)
Glasgow will be too strong. They got a bit of a Champions Cup scare last weekend against the Bulls. There was the South African set-piece, the jackalling and everything that comes with that. The weather was also pretty horrendous with Storm Dave.
The Warriors have had their scare, and I don’t see them getting another scare this weekend. They will get the job done quite comfortably. The Bulls are a difficult team, but Toulon will struggle to travel well as it’s going to be about 9°C with a bit of rain.
I backed them last weekend to win at home against the Stormers and Charles Ollivon was amazing holding the South Africans up over the line, but the French team’s form hasn’t been amazing, and I can’t see anything but a Glasgow win here.
The artificial pitch will be a help. Glasgow are so used to training and playing on the Scotstoun surface. It’s not only a psychological effect that this can have on Toulon, but there is also an effect on your carry, the bounce of the ball and things like that.
It definitely will favour Glasgow, as they are used to playing on an artificial surface. When you are not used to it, it is different, there is no doubt about it. PREDICTION: Glasgow by 15 points
Law discussion: Were the Stormers really hard done by with a ‘dreadful’ referee decision?
Leinster Rugby v Sale Sharks (Saturday, 5:30pm local time)
This seems like an impossible task for Sale. Leinster got a bit of a scare against Edinburgh with the intercept tries they gave away, but they still won comfortably and will do so again this Saturday.
We have seen Leinster over the years blow teams away and play almost brilliantly, but the fact that they are a little bit stuttery this season is not a bad thing. They don’t need to be at their best yet. They need to be at their best for the semi-final – and the final if they make it – but the fact they are not firing on all cylinders at the moment isn’t a bad thing.
The coaches will be happy because there are some things to look at, and there is that element of jeopardy because you know that you are not playing your best rugby, but I don’t think they should be worried by that. They are stacked full of quality players.
Rieko Ioane, their All Black signing, finished with a nice little touch against Edinburgh, a great little try. Darcy Graham sort of gambled and came up short.
When you are a big-name player and you are in a Leinster team that is already stacked with internationals, there is a lot of expectation when you come over to deliver. The bigger the game and the bigger the occasion, players like Ioane do stand up and deliver – and he did that last weekend.
So, too, Harry Byrne. It was good to see him get the nod at No.10. There is stiff competition with Sam Prendergast and Ciaran Frawley, but Byrne is the guy at the moment and he is playing tidy rugby.
He hasn’t had a huge shot at international stuff yet with but his battle with Sale’s George Ford will be important. To be fair, Ford is going to have to have the game of his life in terms of the tactical stuff – and even then I’m not sure it would be enough.
With front-rowers Luke Cowan-Dickie and Bevan Rodd injured, Sale are going to be under real pressure. They are going to be on the back foot, and it is going to be difficult for Ford as a 10 compared to Byrne being on the front foot for most of the game.
Something hasn’t quite been firing for Sale this season. They very much have a similar squad to last year when they were in the semi-finals of the PREM, but they have lost a bit of their identity. They are okay at everything without being outstanding at any one particular thing.
They probably need to get back to what they built on before, which was a dominant forward pack, a really strong, high press defence and Ford then tactically squeezing you, but they are not getting the set-piece dominance they were getting and the defence isn’t winning the collisions that they were. PREDICTION: Leinster by about 25 points
Union Bordeaux Bègles v Stade Toulousain (Sunday, 4pm local time)
I can’t wait for this one. Dan Cole and I are flying over to Bordeaux to watch this one purely on the basis that it is going to be so good that we need to be there to watch and embrace it.
This fixture is worthy of a final, these two teams going at it, so the fact that the seeding and the draw have ended up this way means we are going to be treated to a really intense, tight affair that is going to be an absolute belter.
The half-backs are going to have a big say. You have Matthieu Jalibert against Romain Ntamack and Maxime Lucu versus Antoine Dupont. Lucu is one of those half-backs that if he were any other nationality than French, he’d be a starter for any other team. So, this half-back battle is going to be awesome.
As the defending champions, Bordeaux have just carried on their form this season. It’s not only the individual threat they have; it is the power, it’s the offload, it’s the synergy they bring. Everyone seems so in sync with each other.
They look like a real quality outfit, but I am actually going to back Toulouse to get an away win here by the skin of their teeth. I feel they have got that psychological bit over Bordeaux.
They have won the last two Top 14 finals, and the other thing is if Damian Penaud is playing at 13 for Bordeaux, Toulouse can really isolate him because it is a very hard position to defend.
Bordeaux did win the Champions Cup semi-final between the teams last year, but Dupont was injured. With him back there, there is that psychological barrier, and Toulouse will win. PREDICTION: Toulouse by two points. It will be a Thomas Ramos kick that nudges them ahead
Tigers ‘shouldn’t have been there’
My old club Leicester were the bottom side to qualify for the Champions Cup round of 16. They snuck through based on getting a four-try bonus point at the Stormers. You could argue that they were really very fortunate to make it through to the round of 16, but the result they suffered at Bordeaux reinforced that they shouldn’t have been there.
If you play internationally, you have to have a break, a week off at some point in the three weeks after the last England game. But this situation frustrates me. Guys like Joe Heyes and Ollie Chessum were chosen to miss the European match rather than a domestic game and it’s really difficult.
Teams have gone to Bordeaux and Toulouse and have been well beaten, but it was tough to see Leicester and Bristol beaten by that much (66-14 and 59-26, respectively). Ultimately, they were completely humbled. Some people will go, ‘Well, it’s just the salary cap’. But it’s not that. I looked at Leicester and they had plenty of international players out there – those results shouldn’t be as high scoring as that.
The number of unforced errors in the first 25 minutes, just coughing up the ball and messing up, you can’t go away to a place like Bordeaux and do that. You just can’t… and Bordeaux were ruthless.
World-class partnership
I can’t look past the battles of the two half-back partnerships in Bordeaux versus Toulouse. I have picked Toulouse to win, but if Bordeaux win it will be based on Lucu and Jalibert. The fact that you are going to get Dupont versus Lucu and Ntmack versus Jalibert is absolute quality and they will be treating it like it is an international match.
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Out of the ordinary
The three try intercepts scored by Edinburgh against Leinster were ridiculous. You’re doing well to see two intercepts over the course of a whole weekend of matches, never mind three in one game. It was absolute madness.
Another out-of-the-ordinary moment was Toulon’s Ollivon. The way he held up the Stormers over the line was a stroke of genius, absolutely brilliant.
And then there was Jalibert and the way he lifted the ball with his left foot. Leicester did a grubber kick through and instead of picking the ball up with his hands, he tapped it up with his left foot and did a keepie-uppie football to himself.
EPCR Challenge Cup predictions
Connacht got the Challenge Cup round of 16 job done against the Sharks but with Montpellier having home advantage on Saturday, I see them having enough to win and book a semi-final against the Dragons. I would never have picked Zebre or Dragons to be in the quarter-finals, but the Welsh side will win that game in Italy on Saturday.
On the other side of the draw, Exeter have a great chance of going to Benetton and winning on Sunday, albeit Tommaso Menoncello has been absolutely amazing, while Ulster should have enough on Friday night for La Rochelle, who will travel with one eye on the Top 14. At this stage, you can see a Montpellier-Exeter final.
‘Almost astonishing’ Munster situation
It’s quite tough to see what has happened to a team like Munster, with their Champions Cup history and pedigree. It’s not the going out of the Challenge Cup, it’s the manner of their going out as Exeter were 31-0 ahead at half-time last Saturday. It’s almost astonishing to see that happen to a Munster team.
They didn’t get through to the last 16 in the Champions Cup, they drop into the Challenge Cup and go 31 points down. You do wonder what is going on there because that type of margin is unheard of with them. For a team that is steeped in Champions Cup history and has a huge fanbase, it’s been a tough couple of years for them in Europe.
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