Autumn Nations Series: Seven storylines to follow including the battle for number one and under pressure Antipodean head coaches

Colin Newboult

The Autumn Nations Series is set to begin, where the best teams in the world are primed to face off in what will almost definitely be a thrilling month of action.

There are a variety of intriguing subplots and this delves into the big talking points ahead of the action starting.

The battle for world number one

Just under four points separates the top five teams in the rankings. Ireland currently top the standings on 90.03 and they are followed by France, South Africa, New Zealand and England, which means there are subplots going into every encounter. While silverware – and especially the World Cup – are ultimately the only goal for those sides, being called the best side in the world is certainly something to be proud of.

It can also be used as a source of scorn from the supporters, with the All Blacks being particularly beaten with that stick following their awful start to the season. New Zealand may find it difficult to make much headway over the next month as they face the lower-ranked Japan, Scotland and Wales over the coming weeks, but they could be helped if France, Ireland and South Africa slip up.

Interestingly, the Springboks face both the French and Irish, and then finish their tour with an encounter against England. It means that there could be plenty of movement between the top five teams in the world during the end-of-year Tests.

Ireland maintaining momentum with big year looming

The question of whether Ireland have once again peaked between World Cups looms large as they prepare for a huge 12 months. Their series victory over New Zealand in July was significant in a number of ways but, needless to say, it has to be a starting point rather than the end of the road. Head coach Andy Farrell has made the right noises in terms of telling his side to embrace the number one ranking, but it is not a mantle which necessarily sits comfortably with the Irish.

Stereotypically, they much prefer the underdog status, but this team appears to be different. There is an air confidence around the squad and they currently look better placed than previous incarnations to actually match the expectations placed on them. Their big target is the first match, where they take on South Africa in Dublin, so if Farrell’s men can emerge triumphant there, it sets them up nicely for the following two games. Going three from three won’t allay those World Cup concerns but it will certainly give observers an indicator as to where Ireland are going into a big 2023.

Springboks’ (lack of) consistency

There is a lot to admire about this current Springbok side. They have the best set-piece in the world, their defence is outstanding and there is plenty of pace in the backline. If the World Cup was played tomorrow, you would back South Africa to win a tight and tense knockout match simply because their fundamentals are so strong. And yet, Jacques Nienaber is not making the most of that platform, with results and performances frustratingly inconsistent.

The attack is still not truly firing and there has also been question marks over some of the head coach’s selections. Their issues at fly-half are not making it any easier for Nienaber and they may well struggle against Ireland, France and England next month. Although we would ordinarily back the Boks to beat the Red Rose, it falls outside the international window so they will have to make changes to the team. As a result, it is shaping up to be a tough month for South Africa. The defending world champions may well get a couple of victories but they probably won’t get the consistency they are striving for.

England coming good at the right time

When England did so well at the 2019 World Cup, people pointed to the Six Nations as the start of their resurgence, but actually the building blocks were put in place the previous November. There was a lot of negativity around English rugby following a poor 2018 Six Nations and a 2-1 series defeat to a supposedly poor South African outfit, which meant their results and performances in the end-of-year Tests went somewhat under the radar.

They beat both the Springboks and Australia, and only lost to New Zealand by one point, with Sam Underhill denied a late try due to the tightest of offside calls. Eddie Jones will therefore be looking at this period as an opportunity to build towards the global tournament in France next year. There were much more positive signs in the 2-1 series victory over the Wallabies in July and they will expect to build on that tour.

No-win tour for New Zealand and Ian Foster

This isn’t predicting that they will fail to win any of their matches – although given their year it wouldn’t be a ridiculous call – but that the All Blacks are very much expected to overcome at least three of their opponents over the next month. Having never lost to Japan or Scotland, a reversal at the hands of either would be an embarrassment and see Foster make more unwanted history. Equally, the Wales match is another potential banana skin, despite the Welsh not emerging triumphant over New Zealand since 1953.

Their toughest encounter, and certainly the match where they could emerge with some credit, is the final one of the year against England. In fact, it was even suggested by former All Black Mils Muliaina that they should risk losing the Scotland match just to focus on the contest at Twickenham. We doubt the coaching staff will look at it that way, but it doesn’t necessarily feel like a month where you can gauge the progress of Foster’s men. There are plenty of potential pitfalls and they must be wary not to fall into them.

Pressure increasing on Dave Rennie

The former Glasgow Warriors and Chiefs head coach has been in charge of the Wallabies for over two years now but his win rate stands at just 38 per cent. Everyone knows the challenges he faces, with Australian rugby struggling to attract people to the game in the face of fierce competition from football, rugby league and Australian rules football, but there are still expectations within the set-up.

Rennie has been given plenty of leeway by both the hierarchy and the supporters, but the pressure is starting to ramp up. After the disappointing mid-year Tests against England, where they succumbed 2-1 to relatively mediocre opposition despite going 1-0 up in the three-match series, they then struggled in the Rugby Championship.

They had their moments, such as comfortably beating the Springboks and coming from well behind to almost overcome the All Blacks, but the bad outweighed the good. The record loss to Argentina was an embarrassment while their nine-year unbeaten home run against the Boks was ended a week after that 25-17 triumph.

Australia have a gruelling five-Test tour, which includes matches against the two best teams in the world, France and Ireland. Nobody can really see them upsetting the odds there, which leaves games against Scotland, Italy and Wales. If Rennie’s men end the year with a winning record they will have done well but, if they don’t, then the knives could be out for the 58-year-old.

France laying down a marker a year out from home World Cup

It is not long now until the global tournament and the hosts are building nicely. Having claimed their first Six Nations Grand Slam since 2010 earlier this year, many are tipping Fabien Galthie’s men to win their first ever World Cup in 2023. Pretty much all the parts are in place, from a powerful and athletic pack to a backline which mixes creativity, pace and rugby smarts. The only question mark comes at tighthead where they have yet to truly find a long-term option, but everywhere else Les Bleus are well stocked.

The talent and depth is quite frightening and they will expect to win all three of their November Tests against Australia, South Africa and Japan. Galthie, Raphael Ibanez and Shaun Edwards have introduced a professional and no-nonsense approach to the French set-up, something which has been lacking over the years, and their young players have really brought into those methods. They are a very difficult team to stop and their opponents will have their hands full over the coming weeks.

READ MORE: Springboks: Five talking points ahead of November Tests including building depth and Rassie Erasmus’s return