Autumn Nations Series preview: Wounded Wallabies to lift spirits by edging past Scotland at Murrayfield

Colin Newboult

A big month for Scotland and Australia kicks off on Saturday as the two teams go head-to-head in an important clash at Murrayfield on Saturday.

For slightly differing reasons, both coaches find themselves under pressure and in desperate need to reverse their ailing fortunes over the next few weeks.

Results and performances have been a factor for Gregor Townsend following another underwhelming Six Nations and a frustrating mid-year series defeat to Argentina, but it is more than just on-field efforts which has left fans questioning the 49-year-old.

Townsend’s strained relationship with star fly-half Finn Russell is well known, so it was rather disingenuous for him to state the playmaker’s omission for the end-of-year Tests was solely down to form.

Much of the build-up to this weekend’s match has duly centred on Russell, even though he was never going to be available for Saturday’s game due to it falling outside the international window.

Blair Kinghorn was always going to start against Australia, and yet, the Edinburgh man finds himself under more pressure thanks to the publicity which has been caused by his head coach’s decision-making.

It is a strong call and, ultimately, could well prove to be the correct one, but everyone knows what will happen if Scotland struggle in the Autumn Nations Series and Kinghorn falters at pivot. Calls will come for Russell to be reinstated and the boss will be blamed for their poor form.

Meanwhile, Dave Rennie doesn’t – on the surface anyway – have any quarrels with players, his issues have come thanks to a pretty abysmal win record. At just 38 per cent since taking charge in 2020, the Wallabies have not found any consistency or form over the past two years.

Injuries have not helped, and going into this match they are once again decimated, but the supporters will only accept that excuse for so long.

In fact, the fans have been remarkably patient and part of that has been down to the promise they have, at times, shown. However, they have not done it in enough matches and they ended the Rugby Championship in particularly disappointing fashion after three successive defeats.

Saturday’s game is therefore a must-win for Australia and Rennie. It is their first of five matches in a gruelling northern hemisphere tour and, with encounters against Ireland and France to come, they need a victory to lift spirits in the country.

They are two evenly matched teams and this is a contest which is very difficult to call, but the winner will certainly relieve the pressure on their head coach. For the time being at least.

Last time they met

These two went head-to-head in last year’s Autumn Nations Series as Scotland came out on top, 15-13. It was a tight encounter low on quality and there was no score in the opening quarter, but Hamish Watson did finally break the deadlock with a close range effort. James O’Connor reduced the arrears with a penalty before Rob Leota gave the Wallabies the lead early in the second period. In a see-saw encounter, Ewan Ashman regained Scotland’s advantage, but O’Connor then moved the visitors back ahead. However, Russell won the game for the hosts with a penalty 10 minutes from time.

What they said

Fly-half Kinghorn has been backed to impress after being named in the starting line-up for the game against Australia.

“I see Blair day in and day out, and I see the growth in his game at 10,” lock Grant Gilchrist said.

“He’s one of the most influential players and characters in our squad at Edinburgh. We rely on him heavily and I know what he can bring.

“When he does that, and he applies that to this environment, I’ve no doubt in his ability to lead the attack and boss the game as a 10. His ability speaks for itself.”

Gilchrist is hoping Kinghorn can help bring some consistency to Scotland’s game, something which he believes has been lacking in the team’s performances.

“We’ve shown in most games we’ve played, if not all, when we get the best version of ourselves we’re good enough to beat any team,” he said. “I’ve no doubt about that. Our consistency hasn’t been good enough.

“Through 2022 we had some big moments go against us, and had we been better in those pressure situations you’re looking at a very different set of results.

“That’s the biggest focus, that consistency. And the big moments in Test matches, we need to be really good in those. The best teams are especially good in those moments.

“It’s about having that switch and the ability at the right times, to make the right decisions. We have to find those solutions in game. That’s how we grow as a team, and it comes from the senior guys.”

Wallabies head coach Rennie had no qualms in naming Michael Hooper in his starting XV and insisted that the flanker would be ready, both mentally and physically, for his Test return.

“We reckon he’s ready to go,” Rennie said.

“We had a good chat to him in Sydney and we were going to leave the decision to him if he didn’t feel like he was going to be ready but he’s jumping out of his skin.

“There’s been a lot of indications over the last couple of weeks, even when we’ve been playing he’s constantly texting or watching a lot of footy so that means he’s pretty engaged.

“He’s in a good space, he’s trained well this week and is ready to get back into it.”

Players to watch

The story has all been about the primary playmaking position and whether Blair Kinghorn can step into Russell’s shoes effectively. Obviously, the Racing 92 pivot would not have been available for this encounter anyway due to the match falling outside the international window, but Saturday’s encounter will certainly provide an indication as to whether Townsend has made the right decision by dropping their star back.

Kinghorn has all the skills to be a very good fly-half and continually improved throughout the Argentina tour in July, but this is another step up for the 25-year-old. The pressure was not necessarily on the Edinburgh man in the mid-year series, with Russell seen by everyone – other than the head coach – as the first choice fly-half heading into the Autumn Nations Series.

It is easier being the hunter than the hunted, which is what Kinghorn was in July, but he is now the man in possession of the shirt. That comes with an added pressure and it will be fascinating to see how he reacts during the match on Saturday.

Equally interesting will be the debut of former Wallaby Jack Dempsey. The first player to go from one top-tier nation to another under World Rugby’s new eligibility regulations, there must be a few emotions going around the head of Dempsey. Remember, his last Australia cap only came in 2019, with him moving to Scotland just last year. He has been outstanding for Glasgow Warriors and, with his Scottish ancestry, has a significant connection to the country, but making his debut against the country he represented 14 times will be unique.

The Australians will almost certainly take this opportunity to say a few choice words to the back-row. ‘Traitor’ will no doubt be bandied about, perhaps from the chirpy scrum-half Tate McDermott, who gets his chance to start. Nic White and Jake Gordon have been rotating in the number nine jersey recently, but the lively McDermott is preferred for this clash. He perhaps lacks the control of the other two but is a bundle of energy and will test the Scottish defence around the fringes.

Bernard Foley is the man that will provide the control, which is perhaps the reason why he gets in ahead of the young Noah Lolesio. Foley actually enjoyed a superb return to the Test arena in the first Bledisloe Cup encounter against New Zealand, but rather undid his good work by incurring the wrath of referee Mathieu Raynal late on. Still, he has no doubt learnt from that episode and will look to bring his experience to Saturday’s contest.

At the other end of their career is young lock Nick Frost, who has impressed whenever he has taken to the field. That has tended to be off the bench but, due to the Wallabies’ spate of injuries in the second-row, Frost starts for Rennie’s men at Murrayfield. He is very athletic and therefore an outstanding lineout option, but also watch out for him in the loose. If the 23-year-old gets in space, he can really cause some damage, so Scotland will certainly have to be wary of that.

Main head-to-head

There are a few battles which take the eye on Saturday but the clash between Hamish Watson and Michael Hooper could be the best of the whole month. Watson and Hooper are two genuinely world-class players that are very similar in that they punch well above their weight. Both are incredible athletes that get around the field remarkably well, often carrying the ball with real intent and giving their side front foot ball.

They are also an absolute nuisance at the breakdown. The Scotsman is slightly stronger over the ball and gets in better positions, but the Aussie is the master at competing at numerous rucks and stopping the opposition from getting tempo into their game. His limbs will be flying everywhere trying to disrupt the contact area and that gives his team-mates valuable time to reset in defence. It will be a fun contest and don’t be surprised if there is a bit of aggro between the two as they will be doing the exact same things to irritate each other.

Prediction

At full strength – and we, if not Townsend, include Russell in that – Scotland have the edge, but they have a few key players missing and Australia will be battle-hardened after their Rugby Championship exertions. With Hooper returning to an already very good back-row and a backline which has both pace and power, we fancy the visitors to nick it, despite their injuries. Wallabies by five points.

Previous results

2021: Scotland won 15-13 in Edinburgh
2017: Scotland won 53-24 in Edinburgh
2017: Scotland won 24-19 in Sydney
2016: Australia won 23-22 in Edinburgh
2015: Australia won 35-34 in London
2013: Australia won 21-15 in Edinburgh
2012: Scotland won 9-6 in Newcastle
2009: Scotland won 9-8 in Edinburgh

The teams

Scotland: 15 Ollie Smith, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Blair Kinghorn, 9 Ali Price, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Jamie Ritchie (c), 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Sam Skinner, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Jamie Bhatti, 18 WP Nel, 19 Glen Young, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Ross Thompson, 23 Damien Hoyland

Australia: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Jed Holloway, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 David Porecki, 1 James Slipper (c)
Replacements: 16 Folau Fainga’a, 17 Matt Gibbon, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Ned Hanigan, 20 Pete Samu, 21 Nic White, 22 Noah Lolesio, 23 Jock Campbell

Date: Saturday, October 29
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 17:30 BST (16:30 GMT)
Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (England), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England)

READ MORE: Autumn Nations Series preview: All Blacks to get the better of spirited Japan in Tokyo

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