Autumn Nations Series preview: France to kick off campaign with dominant victory over the Wallabies
Under a year out from their home Rugby World Cup, this is a big month for France.
It may not be as significant as the next Six Nations, where preparations will well and truly ramp up for the global tournament, but Fabien Galthie will learn plenty about his side in the Autumn Nations Series.
They are superbly placed ahead of what should be a huge 2023 following their landmark Grand Slam triumph earlier this year. Other than at tighthead, Les Bleus’ depth is remarkable and they are understandably favourites for the World Cup.
As Ireland showed in 2018, having a great run 12 months out from the global tournament means very little but, let’s be very honest, this France side are nowhere near their peak, which is the scary thing.
Against an injury-hit Australia side, the French should have no problem in getting their Autumn Nations Series campaign off to a winning start.
The Wallabies had the boost of confidence they desperately needed by narrowly overcoming Scotland 16-15 last weekend, but Dave Rennie’s charges will need a vast improvement in Paris.
They, quite frankly, don’t appear to have the tools to challenge the hosts, who will look for a solid opening as they build towards their biggest challenge in the November Tests against the Springboks.
Where the game will be won
It is all about the physicality and whether Australia can match the power of France. If the hosts get front foot ball, they will enjoy playing around the fringes of the Wallabies defence, which has been a bit porous this season, and find off-loads through the heart of the Australian rearguard. Once Les Bleus get on a roll, they are very difficult to stop, so the visitors need to halt them at source and create havoc at the breakdown to make it difficult for Antoine Dupont to get clean ball.
The French are equally potent at stopping the opposition in their tracks too. They have a plethora of threats over the ball, which means Australia need to be accurate at the cleanout and dominant in the carry. Rennie’s men will look to mix up their attack, potentially going wide from first phase in an attempt to stretch the French defence, but they also possess plenty of power in the midfield, so the variety is there. Ultimately, we are struggling to see how this Aussie team can deal with the qualities France will undoubtedly bring. They will just need to hope that the hosts, in their first Test of the season, will be lacking in intensity and therefore a bit sloppy both sides of the ball.
Last time they met
What they said
France head coach Galthie does not believe that he is throwing Romain Ntamack or Cyril Baille in too early, despite their recent injury problems.
“We followed his (Ntamack’s) return to training closely then his return with us. He didn’t play and then came straight with us to camp,” he told reporters.
“I feel he is ready. I feel it but the truth will be in the match.
“There’s a risk for Cyril Baille, like other players. It’s a contact sport.
“There’s endurance and speed that calls for a lot of skills. In contact you can get injured.”
Meanwhile, Australia boss Rennie has described France as the world’s best team.
“We’re well aware this side’s the best in the world, regardless of what the rankings say,” Rennie said.
“They’re unbeaten in about 15 months, they’ve beaten No.1-ranked side Ireland, so we’re looking forward to the challenge. We’re certainly going to go out there and give it a crack.
“There’s phenomenal depth in the club sides here, 28 professional sides up here so there’s a hell of a lot of quality players to pick from – and they’ve done it well.
“They play a simple game. They’ve got massive forwards, good athletes, their backline can play when they want too, but they play a lot of territory and back their defence.”
Players to watch
The France squad is pretty frightening on paper but there will be worries over the match fitness of Toulouse duo Romain Ntamack and Cyril Baille, who have barely featured during the 2022/23 campaign so far. Ntamack will be playing his first match since mid-September while Baille only last week returned from an injury sustained in pre-season. The loosehead has a grand total of 36 minutes under his belt heading into this encounter, which is hardly ideal preparation for a Test match.
Baille also comes up against one of the most feared tightheads in the world in Taniela Tupou, who is handed a start for the clash in Paris. No doubt Galthie has an eye on next weekend – when they play the defending world champions South Africa – in his selection, but it perhaps leaves the door ajar for the Wallabies to sneak through. Les Bleus’ head coach will need his players – and especially his forwards – to be at full speed going into their second Autumn Nations Series contest, but it is a risky selection.
Tupou has endured injury issues of his own but, at his best, he leads the way in the position. The 26-year-old is a destructive scrummager and will put his opposite prop under pressure if he is, indeed, not quite up to the pace of the game, while his carrying prowess will be equally important. He, alongside Rob Valetini, will be crucial in getting Australia over the gain line on Saturday. Valetini, more often than not, makes ground with ball in hand and is one of the few Aussie players that can compete with the French behemoths.
France don’t just have size up front, they also have plenty of physicality behind the scrum. Much of the talk is on Jonathan Danty, Gael Fickou and Damian Penaud, but we are fascinated to see how Yoram Moefana fares this weekend. Despite usually being a centre, Moefana has played for Les Bleus on the wing before and, following Gabin Villiere’s injury, has been preferred to Matthis Lebel on the left. However, his form has not been great for Bordeaux-Begles this season and he could very much do with a big game on Saturday.
Main head-to-head
Two of the best scrum-halves in the world face off on Saturday when Antoine Dupont and Nic White go head-to-head. There is, however, no doubt that Dupont is on another level to anyone else in his position and the Wallabies forwards will have to play out of their minds to slow him down.
The Toulouse playmaker won the World Rugby Player of the Year in 2021 but has, somehow, managed to add to his game this season. He has started the 2022/23 campaign in stunning fashion for his club in the Top 14 and will again be the player which takes responsibility and guides France around the field. The 25-year-old seems to do everything to a world-class standard, from his decision-making around the fringes to his pinpoint kicking game. Dupont is simply the standard-bearer for all nines.
Even his deceptive strength marks Dupont out as it allows him to get out of even the tightest of situations. There are few things White does better but there are ways the Australia scrum-half can get his team on the front foot. Firstly, he needs his pack to match the hosts’ gargantuan forwards – a significant challenge in itself – but if they can supply him with quality ball then the 32-year-old can get his team in the right areas of the pitch. White has an excellent kicking game and is a smart operator at the base, but he needs to step up even more on Saturday to match the brilliance of the Frenchman.
Prediction
This rivalry has been extremely close over the past few meetings but we don’t think that theme will continue in the French capital. Although there are question marks over the match fitness of a couple of key players, Les Bleus should have far too much quality for the Wallabies. France by 20 points.
Previous results
2021: Australia won 33-30 in Brisbane
2021: France won 28-26 in Melbourne
2021: Australia won 23-21 in Brisbane
2016: Australia won 25-23 in Paris
2014: France won 29-26 in Paris
2014: Australia won 39-13 in Sydney
2014: Australia won 6-0 in Melbourne
2014: Australia won 50-23 in Brisbane
2012: France won 33-6 in Paris
The teams
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Yoram Moefana, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (c), 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Thibaud Flament, 4 Cameron Woki, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Dany Priso, 18 Sipili Falatea, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Kilian Geraci, 21 Sekou Macalou, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Matthieu Jalibert
Australia: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Jed Holloway, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 David Porecki, 1 James Slipper (c)
Replacements: 16 Folau Fainga’a, 17 Matt Gibbon, 18 Tom Robertson, 19 Will Skelton, 20 Pete Samu, 21 Jake Gordon, 22 Hunter Paisami, 23 Reece Hodge
Date: Saturday, November 5
Venue: Stade de France, Paris
Kick-off: 21:00 local (20:00 GMT)
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant Referees: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand), Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Tom Foley (England)