Autumn Nations Series preview: England to edge to victory against dangerous Argentina

Following a bumper Saturday of fixtures, England will get their Autumn Nations Series campaign up and running on Sunday with Argentina their first assignment.

It will be a far from straightforward game as the Pumas arrive on the back of taking the scalps of Australia and New Zealand in this year’s Rugby Championship.

Indeed, Michael Cheika’s improving outfit are looking a genuine threat to any nation in world rugby at the moment, with a line-up that virtually picks itself.

Throw in that England haven’t played a Test since July and there are a few whispers of a shock being possible at Twickenham on Sunday. The word shock probably does the Pumas an injustice following their victories over the Wallabies and All Blacks, but they have only won once before at this venue against the English. That’s something they will be desperate to change in a result that would give them huge confidence in what is a dress rehearsal for their World Cup pool clash.

Speaking of Eddie Jones’ men and despite being without skipper Courtney Lawes, they still roll out a strong side of their own as Owen Farrell is fit enough to start as captain, alongside Manu Tuilagi. The backline looks full of attacking potential but it would have been the icing to see Jack van Poortvliet given the nine shirt.

The absence of Lawes leaves a space in the pack for debutant lock Alex Coles – Maro Itoje moves back to blindside to accommodate him – but otherwise one feels England fans will be excited by what this team can produce, with fingers crossed that Tuilagi comes through unscathed and Marcus Smith impacts the match.

It’s all set up to be a fascinating meeting to round off the first full weekend of the Autumn Nations Series, with a home victory far from a given this Sunday.

Where the game will be won

The battle between the packs is a mouth-watering one to say the least as there’s talent aplenty on both sides. It will be a pulsating tussle on the gainline as Argentina’s no-nonsense defence will look to make dominant tackles on the likes of Tuilagi, Ellis Genge and Joe Cokanasiga to stop them at source, helping limit the front-foot ball available to Smith and Farrell. It promises to be a hugely physical contest and whoever comes out on top there is likely to claim victory.

The bench could also play a crucial role on Sunday as both sets of replacements, especially England’s, boast plenty of talent. Also, if this does, as expected, turn into a close match then the Pumas have one of the most reliable boots in the game in Emiliano Boffelli so England must beware as he will punish them at will.

Last time they met

What they said

England head coach Jones has hailed returning inside centre Farrell as the stalwart is back in the line-up after coming through the return to play protocols.

“Having coached for a while at the top level, I don’t think I’ve met a player with more competitive spirit than Owen. There’s been a few good ones and certainly he would be in the top three,” Jones said.

“He has an unbelievable desire to win, leads from the front and brings people with him. George Gregan (Australia) and John Smit (South Africa) weren’t bad either.

“Owen’s come through the protocols really well. He’s getting close to 100 caps, he’s the third-highest points scorer in Test rugby and is a significant player for us.”

Meanwhile, Argentina head coach Cheika had to field questions about his juggling of this job with Lebanon, who played on Friday, in the Rugby League World Cup.

“It’s been great and all in all it’s gone a bit simpler than I thought it would – the travelling between the two, the messaging between the two,” he said.

“We did plenty of preparation beforehand with Argentina. It hasn’t been as stressful as it could have been, it’s been pretty seamless.”

Players to watch

When Manu Tuilagi plays for England there is a collective holding of breath from their fans, such are the injury problems he has endured over the years. If he can stay fit and have a clean run going into the World Cup, his game should move to a new level alongside Smith and Farrell, which is good news for Jones.

There’s also going to be interest in new cap Alex Coles as the Northampton player gets the nod ahead of David Ribbans, with this a great chance to shine.

For Argentina look out for the excellent loosehead prop Thomas Gallo in the set-piece and around the field with both number ones set to be prominent at Twickenham. Gallo has an eye for the try-line and has now established himself as first-choice in his position after a brilliant Rugby Championship campaign.

In the backline there’s the running threat of Mateo Carreras on the right wing but the aforementioned Emiliano Boffelli is likely to have more of a say in the game, due largely to his goal-kicking. If they didn’t know it already, England need to be squeaky clean or Boffelli will kick three points from anywhere.

Main head-to-head

The back-row tussle is well worth keeping an eye on as Itoje, Tom Curry and Billy Vunipola face off with Juan Martín González, Marcos Kremer and Pablo Matera at Twickenham. All are outstanding players in their own right and for the Pumas this now looks a settled trio, with González growing in stature game by game. All six are willing carriers and will be looking to lay down an early marker up front, with the battle between Vunipola and Matera especially interesting.

Prediction

While this is an exciting England 23 and there’s plenty of game breakers on show, there may well be some rust which opens the door to a more settled Argentina. We expect this one to be a close run thing on Sunday – closer than the bookmakers are suggesting – but the hosts should edge it. England by seven points.

Previous results

2019: England won 39-10 in Tokyo (RWC)
2017: England won 21-8 at Twickenham
2017: England won 35-25 in Santa Fe
2017: England won 38-34 in San Juan
2016: England won 27-14 at Twickenham
2013: England won 31-12 at Twickenham
2013: England won 51-26 in Buenos Aires
2013: England won 32-3 in Salta

The teams

England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Jack Nowell, 13 Manu Tuilagi, 12 Owen Farrell (c), 11 Joe Cokanasiga, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Maro Itoje, 5 Jonny Hill, 4 Alex Coles, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Jack Singleton, 17 Mako Vunipola, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 David Ribbans, 20 Sam Simmonds, 21 Jack Willis, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Henry Slade

Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Mateo Carreras, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Pablo Matera, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martín González, 5 Tomás Lavanini, 4 Matías Alemanno, 3 Francisco Gómez Kodela, 2 Julián Montoya (c), 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 18 Eduardo Bello, 19 Lucas Paulos, 20 Facundo Isa, 21 Eliseo Morales, 22 Tomás Albornoz, 23 Matías Orlando

Date: Sunday, November 6
Venue: Twickenham
Kick-off: 14:15 GMT
Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)
Assistant Referees: Frank Murphy (IRFU), Pierre Brousset (FFR)
TMO: Marius Jonker (SARU)

READ MORE: Expert Witness: George Chuter predicts dangerous Argentina to beat England