Autumn Nations Series preview: All Blacks to clinch narrow win over Wales in Cardiff
Wales will have a daunting task when they take on the All Blacks in their Autumn Nations Series international at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday.
The home side head into this encounter knowing that they are up against opponents who they have only beaten on three occasions in the 115-year history of this fixture. Of the 36 Tests played between these countries, the All Blacks have won 33 with Wales’ last victory registered in 1953.
That doesn’t make good reading for the Welsh, who apart from being on a 69-year losing run against the All Blacks, have suffered some heavy defeats in this fixture in recent years. Just last year, the All Blacks sealed a convincing 54-16 victory over a depleted Wales outfit and in eight matches played over the past 10 years, the smallest margin with which New Zealand has triumphed was by 14 points, in Wellington in 2016.
Wales will still fancy their chances of upsetting the apple cart, however, as they are fielding a much stronger starting line-up than in 2021, and they have been boosted by the return of captain Justin Tipuric, full-back Leigh Halfpenny and hooker Ken Owens.
Added to that, Wales will be confident of doing well against New Zealand after impressing in their mid-year Tests against South Africa in July. Despite suffering a 2-1 series defeat to the world champions, Wayne Pivac‘s charges were competitive in all three games and made history by securing their first ever win over the Springboks on South African soil.
After kicking off their end-of-year tour with an unconvincing 38-31 win over Japan in Tokyo last week, the All Blacks will be determined to deliver an improved performance and their head coach Ian Foster has shown he’s taking this fixture seriously by making 11 changes to his starting 15 of which the majority of his new players are regulars in his first choice run-on side.
It’s well documented that the All Blacks have not been at their best in 2022. In fact they’ve been far from it and with a record of four losses out of their 10 Tests played this year, they’ve not reached the heights of previous seasons when they were the dominant force in the global game.
It must be remembered, however, that the All Blacks have improved as the year progressed and they are currently on a four-match winning streak. They will be determined to stay on the victory trail on Saturday.
Where the game will be won
This might sound like a cliché but the forward battle will be huge in this fixture and whoever comes out on top in that department is also likely to finish on the winning side. Judging from the teams selected, Wales will fancy their chances in the forward exchanges as they have a strong looking pack at their disposal.
They will have to hit the ground running and take the fight to their visitors, who also have outstanding players up front, with the likes of Ardie Savea, captain Sam Whitelock, Tyrel Lomax and Ethan de Groot all in excellent form of late. However, where the All Blacks have an edge is amongst the backs and the replacements, and especially their back-up players will be crucial during this game’s latter stages.
Last time they met
What they said
After his team clinched a comfortable victory in the corresponding fixture last year, All Blacks number eight Savea expects a backlash from Wales.
“The atmosphere, the Welsh side, what happened last year. We know they will be bottling that up and wanting to come smack us,” he said.
“For us it’s about building that knot in the gut through the week, so that we come and are ready.”
Meanwhile, Wales assistant coach Jonathan Humphreys believes the All Blacks will still be dangerous despite their indifferent form in 2022.
“They can put you out of the game in a heartbeat. You feel you are in the game after 60 minutes, then a couple of errors and the game is gone,” he said.
“We’ve talked about living every moment. You step off for a second against these guys and the game is gone from you. They have threats all over the place.
“They have overcome a lot of odds, a lot of press speculation, and they still managed to perform in the Rugby Championship.”
Players to watch
For the home side, all eyes will be on Rio Dyer, who will make his international debut in this encounter. The 22-year-old is sure to face a baptism of fire but he certainly deserves his chance at the highest level after catching the eye with some outstanding performances for the Dragons in this season’s United Rugby Championship (URC). Dyer has lit up that tournament with his brilliance on attack and it’s not surprising that he is amongst the URC’s frontrunners for metres gained and tries scored. He will be keen to continue with that form in the Test arena.
Another player to keep an eye on for Wales is Justin Tipuric, who will make his international return after last featuring at Test level in 2021. The 33-year-old has been sidelined with a shoulder injury sustained while playing for the British and Irish Lions in a warm-up match against Japan. The 86-Test veteran is an excellent flanker with his breakdown skills and defensive work amongst the best in the business. He will be determined to shine in those departments while his leadership skills will also be important as the team’s captain.
🏴 Justin Tipuric is back in the Cymru squad after more than a year away
🔥 A reminder of just how good he is in both creating and finishing off tries 👇#WelshRugby pic.twitter.com/2Ojw1HlHbk
— Welsh Rugby Union 🏴 (@WelshRugbyUnion) October 19, 2022
This encounter will be a momentous one for New Zealand scrum-half Aaron Smith as he will surpass Dan Carter as the most capped back in All Blacks history, when he takes to the field in his 113th Test. The 33-year-old has been an ever-present in All Blacks squads since his international debut in 2012, with his slick service to his outside backs, and sniping breaks around the fringes of the rucks and mauls making him one of the best players in the world in his position. He will be eager to celebrate his milestone match with a victory in Cardiff.
With regular All Blacks skipper Sam Cane ruled out of his team’s tour after fracturing his cheek during the victory over Japan, Dalton Papali’i has been elevated to the starting line-up after playing off the bench against the Brave Blossoms. At 1.93 metres in height, Papali’i is tall for an openside flanker but despite his size, he is an excellent tearaway who does well at the breakdowns and usually wins his fair share of turnovers. He is also excellent on attack and defence and will be hoping to put his side on the front foot with a fine all-round showing.
Main head-to-head
There will be several mouth-watering match-ups across the park but the duel between the fly-halves will be crucial as whoever comes out on top between Wales’ Gareth Anscombe and Richie Mo’unga of the All Blacks should also finish on the winning side. New Zealand-born Anscombe will be chomping at the bit to get stuck into the All Blacks as he represented his former country at U20 level with the likes of Beauden Barrett, Codie Taylor and Brad Weber amongst his former team-mates.
Anscombe has also struggled with injuries of late but despite those setbacks he shone for Wales on their tour to South Africa with his goal-kicking particularly impressive. If Wales manage to stay in touch with New Zealand, Anscombe’s goal-kicking could prove crucial in the grander scheme of things. His direct opponent, Mo’unga, has also been in excellent form for the All Blacks and cemented his place in their run-on side with some superb performances during the Rugby Championship. Like Anscombe, he is also solid off the kicking tee but where he holds and edge is in the playmaking department and he will be determined to put his team on the front foot with his vast array of skills.
Prediction
Wales will fancy their chances of causing an upset but they will have to bring their A-game to this fixture as the All Blacks have named a strong and competitive side. Although the hosts will come out fighting and give a good account of themselves, the All Blacks will keep them at bay. New Zealand to win by five points.
Previous results
2021: New Zealand won 54-16 in Cardiff
2019: New Zealand won 40-17 in Chofu
2017: New Zealand won 33-18 in Cardiff
2016: New Zealand won 46-6 in Dunedin
2016: New Zealand won 36-22 in Wellington
2016: New Zealand won 39-21 in Auckland
2014: New Zealand won 34-16 in Cardiff
2012: New Zealand won 33-10 in Cardiff
The teams
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 George North, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Justin Tipuric (c), 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Alun Wyn Jones, 20 Christ Tshiunza, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 Owen Watkin
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Dalton Papali’i, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Samuel Whitelock (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Akira Ioane, 21 Brad Weber, 22 David Havili, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown
Date: Saturday, November 5
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 15:15 GMT
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (England), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (Ireland)