Autumn Nations Series: Five talking points ahead of Ireland v Springboks including a late withdrawal and the breakdown contest
The Autumn Nations Series is serving up a fascinating battle on Saturday as world number one side Ireland welcomes the world champion Springboks to the Aviva Stadium.
Ireland’s efficiency and systems-based play encounters South Africa’s physicality and set-piece power in a fixture that will see the winner sit at the top of the world rankings.
Ahead of the enthralling Test, Planet Rugby has identified five talking points that will be crucial to the outcome of the clash.
Stuart McCloskey, a late replacement for Robbie Henshaw
The Ulster centre will replace Henshaw in the starting line-up after the Leinsterman was ruled out of the fixture with a hamstring injury after initially being named in the XV.
This is the kind of disruption Ireland would have hoped to avoid in the build-up to a monstrous Test. However, head coach Andy Farrell is blessed with depth and will not lose too much with McCloskey starting. In fact, the seven-cap Irishman will provide extra physicality, which may help nullify the go-forward ball the Springboks rely on from Damian de Allende in the 12 channel.
McCloskey does deserve a chance, given his form for Ulster this season, and in rugby, opportunities do not always come in a conventional form. Nevertheless, the midfielder will be looking to impose himself on the Boks and add to the Irish attack.
Aerial battle
Coach Jacques Nienaber has taken a calculated risk by selecting a smaller back three comprising Makazole Mapimpi, Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse. The trio are all good in the air, but Ireland will no doubt be testing this to the max.
The selection of veteran and soon-to-be Test centurion Conor Murray alongside captain Johnny Sexton hints at an aerial onslaught as both players are tactically astute when kicking out of hand.
Coupled with that is the aerial prowess of Mack Hansen and the exciting Robert Baloucounne, who will be looking to pressurise the Springboks’ back three.
However, Ireland needs to ensure their kicks are clever and/or contestable with a consistent kick chase, or the likes of Kolbe and Arendse can do damage in broken play.
Half-back battle
The battle of the half-backs is always key, but this is emphasised this week as the young Springbok pairing of Jaden Hendikse and Damian Willemse face up to a duo of veterans who have seen it all and done it all in Murray and Sexton.
It is all to do for the South African pair, as the Springboks’ game plan hinges on a solid kicking game. With rain before the game and the unpredictability of Irish weather, the duo will need to be at their tactical kicking best to control the territorial battle and provide the forwards reasonable opportunities to find dominance and leverage the game.
On the other hand, Murray and Sexton will look to exploit the back three with a clever kicking game, bringing into focus Willemse’s decision-making in transitioning to the backfield at the right time to support the back three.
Sexton will control the game if he is allowed, and it is up to Willemse to match or better the veteran in decision-making, territory control and execution.
Breakdown
The success of Ireland’s complex attack often hinges on the speed of ball from the ruck. Their forwards are very well-drilled, and Farrell’s men often get the quick ball they need. However, Murray is not as good at controlling the tempo of the game as Jamison Gibson-Park is. Nevertheless, the substitute will likely have a strong impact in the latter stages of the game.
The Springboks boast few players designed to combat the breakdown speed in the starting line-up, with Malcolm Marx the main breakdown threat. Enter the ‘Bomb Squad’, which has been carefully populated with two fetchers in Deon Fourie and Kwagga Smith. Therefore, the plan is to lay the foundation and disrupt any Irish momentum from the breakdown as a source later on.
This, of course, requires Ireland to be sloppy or slow to the breakdown and in support play for the opportunities to open up, which is uncharacteristic of this hard-working team.
Rassie Erasmus’s return
It has been said before, and it will be said again, the return of Springbok director of rugby Rassie Erasmus will make a noticeable impact. Nienaber has managed without his partner, but there is no denying the duo operate the best in tandem, sharing the load according to their specific expertise.
Erasmus’s great value is his ability to break down a game in front of him, share the right information with the players and, most importantly, inspire by taking the pressure out of the equation.
The Springboks will need every ounce of influence Erasmus can offer as the visitors have to be practically perfect to get a result off this Irish side, who are 14 wins from their last 16.
