Australia v Wales preview: ‘Astute’ Joe Schmidt to build further with series-clinching victory in Melbourne
Split with Wallaby Rob Valetini and Wales star James Botham.
The first Test of the Joe Schmidt era went according to plan for the Wallabies who won 25-16 last time out against Wales in Sydney and the two teams reload for another intriguing match-up this week.
Both coaches have opted for continuity with only injury-enforced changes made, for the Wallabies James Slipper takes the captain’s armband with Liam Wright unfortunately out injured. That paves the way for Charlie Cale’s first start as Rob Valetini moves to blindside in the only changes for the hosts.
Warren Gatland has brought back rising star Cam Winnett at full-back with veteran Liam Williams on the wing for Josh Hathaway. The hammer blow, however, is the loss of Aaron Wainwright to a hamstring injury which sees Taine Plumtree move to eight and James Botham on the side of the scrum.
The Sydney battle reeked of two sides who were lacking a bit of confidence with the error and penalty rate higher than they would have liked. However, both countries grew into the game with the Wallabies eventually grabbing the contest by the throat and sealing the victory.
While it was not pretty Schmidt will definitely be the happier of the two as it was a good enough platform to build on and expect his Wallabies to do just that this weekend.
Gatland’s corner is vastly different with eight losses on the bounce. We all know his prestige and record but at some point, heads must roll if the losing streak continues. How long that will be considering he is picking up the Wales Rugby Union’s mess remains to be seen.
It is a team looking to grow against a side desperate not to lose again, making for another thrilling Test.
Where the game will be won
Two main things stand out from the first Test which proved decisive in the end, the first of those is discipline. Both teams were in double figures for penalties conceded (Wallabies – 11, Wales – 13). At Test level, the target is to be in single digits as if a team leaks a lot of penalties, especially consecutively, it is difficult to win the match. So whichever team can clean up the best in this regard will have the strongest chance to win.
Secondly, looking after the ball. Wales conceded a ridiculous 19 turnovers which is a lot of handing the possession back to the opponent. The Wallabies kept their count under 10 which is decent enough but both teams can look after their ball better and lower handling errors.
The battle up front will be interesting. The Welsh maul was really powerful in Sydney, resulting in a penalty try and a disallowed Botham try for a minor technicality. The northern side firmly has the upper hand here and should try to leverage this dominance more in the second Test. If they get it right it will give them penalties and points.
On a similar note, the Wallabies firmly had control of the scrum with Taniela Tupou on the field and will also be looking to leverage that further this time around after a good outing in the set-piece.
Lastly, the breakdown. It was interesting to see very little influence from Tommy Reffell in this regard and he will need to ramp it up significantly. If the Wallabies get clean ball again they have some incredible backs to run the ball. The Welsh loose trio was good last time out but not nearly where they should be at the breakdown.
Last time they met
What they said
Centre Hunter Paisami is loving being back in Wallabies gold and is desperate to cement his spot in the side.
“It’s a goal of mine each week (to retain that jersey) but I’m just keen to enjoy it while I’m here,” he said to reporters.
“I know I can get my prep right during the week I can go out there and do my job for the team, be myself on the field.
“Missing the World Cup was disappointing but the biggest thing for me is to enjoy and have fun whilst I’m out there. This is the year that I enjoyed my footy the most and that’s down to the way Les (Kiss) and the crew at Ballymore bought into the environment.”
Gatland questioned the call to disallow Botham’s try last time out and feels his team aren’t getting the rub of the green at the moment.
“We gave away soft penalties which hurt us early on. We got back into the game; it was close. I need to get some clarity on that disallowed try from the maul,” he said.
“At the moment, we’re not getting any of the 50/50 calls and we just have to work through that.”
Players to watch
The back-three of the Wallabies was one of the differences last time out with Tom Wright and Filipo Daugunu both scoring lovely solo tries while Andrew Kellaway very nearly scored a Tyrone Green-esque superman stunner. There is a lovely balance between them and if Wright in particular lowers his error-rate then the trio will be primed and ready to cut the defence open. They will all be try threats again.
Wrighty goes himself! 💨#Wallabies #AUSvWAL pic.twitter.com/0WGlJ3Waoc
— Wallabies (@wallabies) July 6, 2024
Noah Lolesio and Jake Gordon worked relatively well and in tandem and the potential is there. Both players are quite rounded in their skill sets making it an easy choice to keep them in for this week. Schmidt has options at half-back so the pair will know they need to get it right this week. We get the feeling Lolesio is due a belter of a game.
Finally, for the Wallabies young loosie Charlie Cale gets his start and what a player he is. The Brumby will look to get his hands dirty by offering himself in the carry and emptying the tank on defence. His athleticism and power are cornerstones of what he offers. It is a massive chance for him.
Cam Winnett was a shining light for Wales in the Six Nations as he looked to attack wherever possible with his solid running game. Gatland went a different route for the first Test but injury gets the star back in with a chance. There are clearly question marks around what is the best Welsh team so it’s a good opportunity to remind the coach of his skillset.
Wales desperately need Tommy ‘Turnover’ Reffell to live up to his name and give the Wallabies breakdown hell. We have seen it before from Reffell and his quality in that sphere of the game is impressive but he needs to produce for his team.
The young second-row of Dafydd Jenkins and Christ Tshiunza were solid in the last Test and look like two players set to be in the Wales set-up for a long time. They need to impose themselves on the game and work to disrupt the Wallabies line-out in particular. Both are high quality and offer more than just that, the pair will also be looking to contribute at the breakdown.
Main head-to-head
Last weekend we looked at the openside battle and this week we move to the blindside.
Wallabies stalwart Rob Valetini is outstanding whatever number is on his back. He has been playing blindside all season long for the Brumbies and like always he is the chief carrier and a committed defender. The bruising runner sets the physicality dial for teammates to follow. He will play well as he always does, providing the platform for Australia to use the ball.
It’s a massive challenge this week for James Botham who has to match up to his opposite number. The grandson of the legendary cricketer Sir Ian Botham will need to be at his brutal best. We know he offers line-out options but he will also need to carry hard and make a large number of tackles. It is a very big game in the context of his career.
Prediction
The astute mind of Schmidt will have soaked in everything from last weekend and as a result, the Wallabies will be far more polished but still not perfect. They will look to build and grow. Contrastingly, Gatland’s Wales are looking for anything to grab onto as the dark days threaten to get darker and that will play into the plan of the far more composed Wallabies side. Australia to win by 12 points.
Previous results
2024: Australia won 25-16 in Sydney
2023: Wales won 40-6 in Lyon
2022: Australia won 39-34 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 29-28 in Cardiff
2019: Wales won 29-25 in Chofu
2018: Wales won 9-6 in Cardiff
2017: Australia won 29-21 in Cardiff
2016: Australia won 32-8 in Cardiff
The teams
Wallabies: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Josh Flook, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Charlie Cale, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 James Slipper (c)
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Isaac Kailea, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Angus Blyth, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Nic White, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Dylan Pietsch
Wales: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Liam Williams, 13 Owen Watkin, 12 Mason Grady, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Ben Thomas, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 James Botham, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Christ Tshiunza, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Kemsley Mathias, 18 Harri O’Connor, 19 Cory Hill, 20 Mackenzie Martin, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Nick Tompkins
Date: Saturday, July 13
Kick-off: 19:45 local (10:45 BST, 09:45 GMT)
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (England), Paul Williams (New Zealand)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)
