Analysis: Breaking down the Stormers’ second-half woes

Dylan Coetzee
Clermont celebrate after beating the Stormers.

Thierry LARRET / Maxppp. Rugby Champions Cup : ASM Clermont Auvergne vs DHL Stormers. Stade Marcel Michelin, Clermont-Ferrand (63). Le 10 decembre 2022. JOIE DES CLERMONTOIS

The Stormers claimed their first win in the Champions Cup last weekend after triumphing 34-14 against London Irish in Cape Town.

The victory came at a cost as Springbok second-row, and member of the team’s leadership group, Salmaan Moerat, was wheeled off the ground by a medical cart with a serious-looking injury to his ankle.

Outside of the injury in an already stretched position, it was a good victory for John Dobson‘s men. However, the clash emphasised the increasing concern with the Stormers‘ second-half performances, where the side has tapered off significantly in the last four games.

It is a concerning trend for the United Rugby Championship holders, who run the risk of losing winning positions in crucial games. With that in mind, what exactly is causing the slump in the second period and how serious a concern is the trend?

Number crunch

The second-half slump trend is over the last four games the side has played but only on one occasion, against Clermont, did the drop in intensity cost the Stormers a victory. However, if the trend continues, the punishment will inevitably increase.

During the Stormers’ rampant charge to their URC triumph last season, the side tended to grind out the first period before running away with the game in the second. In the final six games of the 2021/22 campaign, including their run through the play-offs, Dobson’s men scored 37.5% of their points in the first period at an average of 8.83 points compared to 62.5% in the second at an average of 14.6 points.

By contrast, in the last four games, the side scored 68.6% of their points in the first, averaging 20.25 points, while scoring only 31.4% in the second half at 9.25 points on average.

The statistics show a complete flip in the distribution of points scored and may also seem less of a concern given more points on average has been scored in their last four games. The genuine concern is that opportunistic or late tries have produced more flattering scorelines than the game’s momentum suggests.

Take the London Irish match, where the Stormers built a massive 24-0 lead before leaving the door open for the visitors, who made it 27-14 at a point and easily could have been within seven if it were not for a disallowed try.

A late try against the momentum of the game gave the hosts their bonus point and protected the scoreline, but the reality is the Stormers almost handed the Exiles the game.

Different teams in similar circumstances will be able to capitalise as Clermont did the week before, where they came back from 14-3 down to win 24-14 keeping the Stormers scoreless in the second period.

Make no mistake, Dobson is desperate to build on the success of last season and needs to find the root cause before the canyon becomes too wide to bridge.

Tight five

On paper, the Stormers have an outrageous first-choice tight five, all Springboks, including skipper Steven Kitshoff, Joseph Dweba, Frans Malherbe, Salmaan Moerat and Marvin Orie.

Outside of that, the Cape Town side also has quality in Brok Harris, JJ Kotze, Andre Hugo-Venter, Sazi Sandi, Ernst van Rhyn and Adre Smith.

There is a fairly significant difference in quality between the first and second choice front-rows, with the exception of hooker, where Kotze and Hugo-Venter are both stars to watch in the future.

However, the gap is bigger with the props with Harris, who is still a quality scrummager in his own right but perhaps unable to make the impact in broken play during the games’ latter stages. Sandi is still young and moulding his identity as a player, but he has plenty of promise. However, the young star has yet to completely announce himself in Stormers’ colours – taking nothing away from some of his good performances.

In the second-row, there is an injury crisis, with Moerat joining the Van Rhyn and Smith duo on the sidelines. Moerat and Van Rhyn are losses from a quality standpoint and from a leadership point of view, as both players have led the Cape Town side at some point during the season.

Ultimately the gap between the available first-choice players and their substitutes is just too big for the replacements in the tight five to significantly impact the game, contributing to the second-half slump. This has been exacerbated by the slow integration of key Springbok stars that needed the rest after a gruelling Test season.

Kitshoff and Malherbe cannot be asked to play the full 80 given the workload they carry into the Stormers set-up and the number of games yet to play. In contrast, the second-row has simply been ravaged by injury, meaning replacements for the starting pair are inevitably inexperienced.

Half-backs

Another massive concern for the Stormers is the form of Springbok Herschel Jantjies, who has struggled to show off his best this season and could be argued to be behind Paul de Wet in the pecking order.

Dobson operates on a rotation system with the two scrum-halves that were effective last season as both stars were in good form and pushing each other to play better rugby. However, now with Jantjies out of form it creates an imbalance in the structure.

Dropping the Springbok out of the rotation structure places too much workload on De Wet in the long-term and removes the possibility of a return to form, making scrum-half selection a tricky one for Dobson.

Similarly, the Stormers have an issue at fly-half, albeit not as concerning. Manie Libbok is the first choice every day of the week and is a player that has grown tremendously by adding Test experience to his resume. The playmaker can still learn and get even better but is solid in his game management.

Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is the obvious heir to the Libbok throne but is also sidelined with injury. Outside of the young superstar is Kade Wolhuter.

There is a clear difference in game management when the likes of Wolhuter take to the field in place of Libbok. The young star is a fantastic talent, but injury has robbed him of the experience he could have at this level by now.

The Dragons clash is a perfect example where Libbok was subbed around the hour mark, and the Stormers instantly lost momentum allowing the Welsh side to run in some late tries.

Another consideration is the influence of Willemse on the half-backs, something that Libbok leans on often. Something that has been missing as it was in the Dragons clash.

Verdict

The rigours of fighting on two different fronts in the URC and Champions Cup is beginning its stretch of the Stormers squad, which may have too big a gap between first and second-string stars made wider by injury.

Many of the second-choice stars are young talents that will grow with experience, but that takes time, and the second-half slumps are occurring right now.

The Springbok contingent is yet to settle back into the rhythm of club rugby completely, and as soon as Kitshoff, Malherbe and Willemse have played several weeks for the Stormers, their influence both in terms of skill-set and leadership influence will be more prevalent.

The trio are the kind of leaders that can provide stability to allow younger or more inexperienced players to deal with momentum changes and late surges in games. From then, it is a snowball effect powered by belief.

Only one of the four consecutive slumps has cost the Stormers, but Dobson will be desperate to nip it in the bud before it eventually turns from concern to disaster. Not being able to withstand a late comeback attempt is not a monkey the Cape Town men will want on their back in the latter stages of the season, particularly the play-offs.

READ MORE: Champions Cup Team of the Week: Tadhg Beirne our star man while two props at different stages of their careers make the cut