All Blacks v Wallabies preview: Scott Robertson’s ‘unconvincing’ side to end Wellington hoodoo despite final quarter struggles
Beauden Barrett alongside Taniela Tupou with Joe Schmidt and Scott Robertson shaking hands.
The Bledisloe Cup may have gone for yet another year for the Wallabies but they do have a second and final opportunity to get one over the All Blacks in 2024.
It will be 23 years since Australia lifted the coveted silverware when the trans-Tasman rivals clash in 2025 after a 31-28 defeat to New Zealand in Sydney. Pride is therefore the only thing at stake as the Wallabies look to continue the hosts’ poor run in Wellington.
The All Blacks have gone five games without a win at Sky Stadium, stretching back to 2018 when they overcame France 26-13. It is remarkable for a team who have been as dominant as New Zealand, but the Aussies will hope to take advantage of their struggles in the capital.
Whether they are able to is another matter. New head coach Joe Schmidt, who took over following the departure of Eddie Jones, knows that he has a lot of work to do to rebuild Australian rugby, which has been evident by their results and performances.
The loss last weekend was their fourth of the Rugby Championship – the Wallabies’ surprise 20-19 victory in Argentina their only saving grace – as they reside at the bottom of the table.
That is where they will stay irrespective of the result this weekend, but a victory on Saturday would lift spirits and potentially point to a brighter future under Schmidt.
Despite a terrible start in Sydney they ended up just three points in arrears at the final whistle, but there was still a number of issues within their game. In fact, it was not the highest quality game all-round if truth be told, with the All Blacks once again not exactly convincing.
Like Schmidt, Scott Robertson has work to do, albeit the problems are much smaller by comparison. However, his start in the All Blacks hot-seat has not been entirely convincing and he will want a significantly improved display in Wellington.
Where the game will be won
Judging by the past few weeks, it will be the final 20 minutes. While the All Blacks did not succumb to defeat this time around, they came mightily close considering their blitz in the early stages. The final quarter has become a real issue for Robertson’s men in the Rugby Championship and makes you think that the make-up of the bench is not quite right. Either that or they simply don’t have the requisite quality in the country to fulfil that role and impact the game late on.
It is therefore perhaps not surprising to see Patrick Tuipulotu come into the squad with Damian McKenzie dropping down to the bench who, on the face of it, can give New Zealand real impetus in the latter stages. The starters also need to do their jobs properly but there is nothing to suggest that they won’t, with the pack unchanged and the backline containing numerous threats. The concern is how quickly the half-backs settle, but they are both incredibly experienced and played with each other for years in Wellington – coincidently the venue on Saturday.
As for the Wallabies, they quite simply need to match the intensity of their opponents early on having been blown away by their arch-rivals in Sydney. There was more than enough in that second half for Schmidt to be positive, but he is well aware that the All Blacks will be frustrated by their performance last weekend and will want an improvement.
New Zealand certainly have more individual quality than their Australian counterparts, but the visitors do have players that can hurt the hosts. If they can get a rumble on over the gain line and find those pressure points, Robertson’s outfit may well react badly, like they have done pretty much throughout this tournament.
What happened in Bledisloe I
What they said
All Blacks boss Robertson insisted that they “were always planning to give Beauden a go” after Barrett replaced McKenzie at fly-half.
“[McKenzie] has started every game until now and he’s shown some good form but you have to give guys an opportunity to build depth in your team and it’s a chance for Beauden to play outside TJ [Perenara],” the head coach said.
“It’s a combination that has played a lot of games together and they have played a lot of games together at the Cake Tin so it lines up nicely.
“I want to see Beauden Barrett, 131 tests, at his best. He’s a great conductor. He will get you around the field and obviously that boot has been impeccable throughout his career.
“[I want him] to own his opportunity and put some heat on us to make sure we have two world-class 10s.”
Wallabies head coach Schmidt also had his say on the All Blacks’ change at fly-half.
“No, I mean I know both of those 10s very well, I’ve coached them both, and I think they bring really strong attributes to the All Black game,” he said.
“Obviously, Beauden’s experience… has a depth of experience, probably hasn’t played as much 10 over here in recent years with a fair bit of 15 in the All Blacks but I think he played pretty much the whole season at 10 in Japan.”
Schmidt will hope Barrett doesn’t settle too quickly as Australia seek to avoid the type of start which saw them go 21-0 down in 15 minutes in Sydney.
“We’ve got to start better, obviously, than last week, and then be able to maintain a real focus because it’s a split-second and New Zealand can get away from you so quickly,” he added.
“If you look back at the tries they scored, some of them, particularly probably Ardie’s (Savea) one is a standout where we’re looking to force a pass, Sevu (Reece) picks it up, Ardie is down the other end between the posts in the blink of an eye really.
“You don’t give yourself a chance of defending those if you’re untidy with the ball, and then at the same time, they’re the sort of team who can apply pressure through their set-piece and then through their running game.”
Players to watch
The big talking point is obviously at 10 with Beauden Barrett coming into the XV in place of McKenzie. It must be said that the Chiefs star has not played poorly over the past eight matches, but there is an argument that McKenzie’s skill set is simply not suited to running this All Blacks side from the start. We will ultimately find that out on Saturday.
Barrett is partnered by TJ Perenara at half-back in what will be an emotional game for the Hurricanes legend, whose final international on New Zealand soil comes at Sky Stadium in Wellington. He has been a wonderful player for the All Blacks and he will seek to show his class this weekend. Perenara will certainly not want his special day to be soured but, to avoid that, the scrum-half will need to make sure that his kicking game – a real weakness during the 2024 Test season – is on point.
It will also be a big day for Sam Cane, who is set to earn his 100th cap for the All Blacks. Like Perenara, Cane is playing his final Test in the country, making it particularly poignant for the former skipper. He will remain available for international duty for the rest of 2024 but, with those matches all away from home, Saturday is a significant occasion for both players.
Finally, watch out for Will Jordan, who takes his place at full-back for what is now the third match in a row, and centre Anton Lienert-Brown. With Beauden’s brother, Jordie Barrett, out Lienert-Brown gets his shot from the start and the classy midfielder will look to use his rugby intellect to link that backline together.
Australia will seek to counteract New Zealand’s threat by simply depriving them of the ball. It is something Nic White failed to do last weekend, but Schmidt will hope that Jake Gordon can do a better job of controlling the match, especially early on. Gordon has predominantly been their first choice scrum-half this year and he is back in the saddle for the clash in Wellington as they look to end the Rugby Championship on a high.
If Gordon can help get the Wallabies on the front foot then that will make wing Dylan Pietsch’s job much easier. He replaces the injured Marika Koroibete in the side to make his first Test start. Pietsch is excellent with ball in hand but, as ever for Test wings, the 26-year-old must also do the unseen work, such as kick-chase and being solid under the high ball, if he wants to be a success at this level.
Up front, the pack remains unchanged and, needless to say, they must all have big games if they want to stand a chance of overcoming their rivals. Powerful props Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou will hope to build on last week’s efforts, while the locks, Nick Frost and Jeremy Williams, are equally important as any set-piece instability will be pounced upon by the hosts.
Main head-to-head
The bench has become increasingly important over the years, but it seems to be particularly vital going into this encounter, especially for the All Blacks. Unusually for New Zealand, who were renowned for putting their foot down in the latter stages of matches, they have struggled after the break in 2024. They have yet to outscore their opponents in the Rugby Championship but Robertson will hope that his alterations will make a difference.
Tuipulotu will certainly add more power than Sam Darry while in the front-row both Tamaiti Williams and Asafo Aumua look like natural impact replacements. However, Pasilio Tosi is still callow at Test match level, while we are just not sure about Luke Jacobson as a bench option. Behind the scrum, Cortez Ratima has done well off the bench and McKenzie reprises the role he has done so many times for the All Blacks, but David Havili is an odd choice for the final member of the 23.
For the Wallabies, we don’t think they can match them for individual quality but there is plenty of dynamism in the form of front-rowers Brandon Paenga-Amosa and Isaac Kailea. Allan Alaalatoa is a reliable option at tighthead while Lukhan Salakaia-Loto and Langi Gleeson add power and athleticism in the back five of the scrum. Equally, Tate McDermott is a livewire at scrum-half and centre Josh Flook has plenty of pace. Ultimately, the Wallabies replacements may not be good enough to get into an All Blacks side but they perhaps fulfil the roles better off the bench than their counterparts, which could be crucial come Saturday.
Prediction
We are still not convinced about New Zealand’s ability to keep the intensity high for the full 80 minutes, but they have, quite simply, better players than the Wallabies, which should tell in the final result. Although their form in Wellington is poor, we can’t see them being stunned again. All Blacks by 18 points.
Previous results
2024: New Zealand won 31-28 in Sydney
2023: New Zealand won 23-20 in Dunedin
2023: New Zealand won 38-7 in Melbourne
2022: New Zealand won 40-14 in Auckland
2022: New Zealand won 39-37 in Melbourne
2021: New Zealand won 38-21 in Perth
2021: New Zealand won 57-22 in Auckland
2021: New Zealand won 33-25 in Auckland
2020: Australia won 24-22 in Brisbane
2020: New Zealand won 43-5 in Sydney
The teams
New Zealand: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 David Havili
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Isaac Kailea, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Josh Flook
Date: Saturday, 28 September
Venue: Sky Stadium, Wellington
Kick-off: 19:05 local (08:05 BST, 07:05 GMT, 17:05 AEST)
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (England), Damian Schneider (Argentina)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (France)
