All Blacks v Springboks preview: Rugby’s greatest rivalry returns to crown the Rugby Championship champions

Jared Wright
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All Blacks v Springboks: All Blacks flyhalf Richie Mo'unga, the Rugby Championship trophy, and Springboks flyhalf Damian Willemse

All Blacks flyhalf Richie Mo'unga, the Rugby Championship trophy, and Springboks flyhalf Damian Willemse.

The winner of the 2023 Rugby Championship will effectively be decided at Mount Smart Stadium in Auckland on Saturday when the All Blacks and Springboks renew their rivalry as they clash for the 104th time in their history.

Due to the Rugby World Cup, the tournament has been shortened, meaning that the winner of Saturday’s clash will likely hoist the title with just one round remaining thereafter.

Both teams got the new year off to a rip-roaring start with the Springboks thrashing a hapless Wallabies side 43-12 in Pretoria – a scoreline only made marginally worse by a debut day try for Carter Gordon with the game well out of Australia’s reach.

Meanwhile, Ian Foster’s All Blacks were on the road for the first game and comfortably dispatched Argentina, running in seven tries in a 41-12 victory in Buenos Aires – with the Pumas also scoring a late try to dent the margin of defeat slightly.

The fixture in Auckland is the resumption of rugby’s biggest rivalry and its return to New Zealand after a four-year hiatus due to COVID and scheduling.

This promises to be an epic clash between the two sides as Rugby World Cup preparations continue and the battle at the top of the world rankings rages on.

It’s the flair of the All Blacks versus the physicality of the Springboks in a clash that historically goes down to the wire, with no quarter given and both sets of players giving their absolute all. It does not get much better than this. 

Where the game will be won

As is often the case with top-class Tests, this rivalry will be won and lost in the packs. The Springboks have once again named an imposing set of forwards jampacked with world-class players and with a robust group of six on the bench, almost guaranteeing an intense 80-minute performance up front. While the All Blacks’ set of 13 forwards are brilliant in their own right, they will need to rise to the challenge physically and technically to eke out a favourable result.

The Springboks’ lineout did falter at times against Australia, but outside of those hiccups, they dominated the scrums and the gain line. Meanwhile, the All Blacks got the better of Argentina at the set-pieces while bossing the breakdown, providing Aaron Smith the perfect platform to launch from and rip the Pumas to shreds.

The two success stories in round one pave the way to victory for either side. Jacque Nienaber’s charges will need to compete far better than Los Pumas did by slowing down the All Blacks’ attack at the breakdown. Big hits on defence and competing, whether it is with a jackler or through counter-rucking, the Boks quite simply cannot let the New Zealand attack tick over at the rate it did in Mendoza.

As for the men in black, they will need to deny the Boks go-forward by limiting the impact of bulking carries from the likes of Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Jasper Wiese, Damian de Allende and even Kwagga Smith. The Springboks thrive on momentum, whether they achieve that through their set-pieces, carries, kicks or a combination of them all, nullifying at least one source will go a long way to stopping the juggernaut from steamrolling their way to victory.

When they last met

What they said

“There’s nothing better than playing South Africa. It brings out the best in both teams. We love these games, and yes, we will get a clear mark of where we’re at. But it’s also just another little step on the ladder,” All Blacks head coach Foster said after naming his team to face the Springboks.

The rivalry between the two sides was widely commented on this week, with Rieko Ioane adding: “The Springboks are always a tough team; you want to be part of the biggest games. They’re one of our, if not biggest, rivals for the All Blacks.”

Flanker Smith previewed the match, saying it is the ultimate test for a Springbok and was eager to make his mark in the big game.

“I love playing against the All Blacks; it always brings out the best in me. Personally, I believe it’s one of the biggest rivalries in rugby and the ultimate test for me as a player,” Smith said ahead of his 32nd cap for the Springboks.

“The other top rugby nations are making a strong statement, but the history and rivalry of matches between the Springboks and All Blacks makes it such a big game to participate in.”

Players to watch

It’s a shame that Sam Whitelock will not get one last shot at the Springboks on New Zealand soil, but the game moves on, and the man taking over his jersey this weekend, Scott Barrett, will probably do so once Whitelock departs. Barrett continually proves his pedigree and produces top performances for the All Blacks. The pressure will be on him to take over the lineout responsibilities on Saturday, and after impressing in that area last week, he will be out to do the same in Auckland. It’s a big game for the excellent second-rower against Etzebeth and De Jager and one where he can reinforce his world-class status. 

Rieko Ioane continues his combination with Jordie Barrett in the centres for the All Blacks. His move from the wing to the midfield has been mildly successful as he shines with ball in hand, but his growing pains in the position have come in defence. He comes up against the outstanding Lukhanyo Am on Saturday, a player who can nullify Ioane’s influence on attack and cause him all kinds of issues on defence. Am will be a real challenge for Ioane, and an assertive outing against the World Cup winner will benefit his game immensely.

21 tries in 21 Test matches is just scratching the surface of the quality Will Jordan adds to the All Blacks backline, and his return to the starting line-up this weekend is a welcome boost. Jordan has the knack of opening up any defence with his intelligent running lines, with his supporting runs meaning that very few opportunities go begging. The 25-year-old is also excellent under the high ball and a sharp defender; quite simply, he is one of the best in the business and will be out to prove it again after a spell on the sidelines.

As already mentioned, the breakdown battle will be key on Saturday, and a crucial player in the Springboks’ success is flanker Kwagga Smith. With Siya Kolisi sidelined, Smith has been entrusted with the number six jersey as he was during the 2019 Rugby World Championship. Smith shone when given the shot four years ago, sealing a place in the squad for the Rugby World Cup in Japan. He has the opportunity to stamp his mark on the jersey after an outstanding shift from Marco van Staden against Australia. The former Blitzboks star is incredible over the ball, rapidly quick and an excellent tackler. His head-to-head with Sam Cane this weekend will be a mouth-watering clash. 

Setting the platform for the Springboks’ backs will be crucial on Saturday, and while the front row is in good form, Lood de Jager will need to hit the ground running in his first Test match of the year. There were a few hiccups at the lineout last week, and the Boks’ general will be keen to have a flawless performance in that department. Marvin Orie also impressed with his handling skills and link-up play against the Wallabies, an area of the game De Jager has improved in recently.  

In a similar breath, Damian de Allende will be crucial to generating front-foot attacking ball for the Springboks. The abrasive centre was a regular fixture in the starting line-up last year and returns to reclaim his role after a stellar performance from Andre Esterhuizen. De Allende has the arduous task of keeping Jordie Barrett quiet too. There is no doubting his class, and with his competitor for his starting role producing a solid performance last week, De Allende with be frothing to cement his position again. 

Main head-to-head

Two box office talents face off in the number ten jumpers this weekend, with Richie Mo’unga in black and Damian Willemse in green and gold.

The pair come into their respective XVs after promising performances from last week’s starters, Damian McKenzie and Manie Libbok. They may well be entrusted with the kicking duties in what promises to be a closely fought encounter. If not, they will still need to shine with the boot, with the kicking contest still significantly important in the international arena.

With the battle lines set up front, any chances created must be capitalised on, meaning the duo will need to be on top of their game to make the most of them by picking the right options at the right time. There are incredibly lethal attackers in both backlines, and unleashing those weapons will be crucial in Auckland. 

Mo’unga succeeded in doing precisely that with the Crusaders this season and had a promising cameo off the bench against Argentina. 

Meanwhile, Willemse spent most of his club season playing centre and full-back for the Stormers but shone in multiple facets of the game as the side reached the final of the URC. The skilled utility back has the potential to thrive in the number ten jumper for the Springboks, and Saturday’s game provides him with the chance to prove it against one of the best pivots in the world. 

Prediction

Last year, each side claimed a win over the other, with the Springboks winning the first before a largely-changed side lost the second fixture. Since 2018, little has separated the two sides, and we don’t expect Saturday’s game to be any different, with small margins deciding the outcome. The Springboks have not selected an out-and-out placekicker, but they do have some fresh players who arrived in New Zealand with enough time to acclimatise and settle in while many of the All Blacks travelled from Argentina. There isn’t much in this one, but the Springboks look to have the slightest edge and should win by five points. 

Previous results

2022: New Zealand won 35-23 in Johannesburg
2022: South Africa won 26-10 in Mbombela
2021: South Africa won 31-29 on the Gold Coast
2021: New Zealand won 19-17 in Townsville
2019: New Zealand won 23-13 in Yokohama
2019: New Zealand and South Africa drew 16-16 in Wellington
2018: New Zealand won 32-30 in Pretoria
2018: South Africa won 36-34 in Wellington
2017: New Zealand won 25-24 in Cape Town
2017: New Zealand won 57-0 in Albany

The teams

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Telea, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Braydon Ennor, 23 Caleb Clarke

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth (c), 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Thomas du Toit, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 21 Duane Vermeulen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok

Date: Saturday, July 15
Venue: Mount Smart Stadium, Auckland
Kick-off: 19:05 local (08:05 BST, 07:05 GMT)
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)
Assistant Referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Pierre Brousset (France)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)

READ MORE: The simply RIDICULOUS combined All Blacks and Springboks XV

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