All Blacks v England preview: Scott Robertson’s side to shake off the rust to complete series whitewash at fortress Eden Park
Tyrel Lomax will go up against Fin Baxter at Eden Park.
It was a winning start to the Scott Robertson era for the All Blacks but the new boss very much realised they got away with one in Dunedin.
It was to the players’ credit that they managed to overturn a 15-10 deficit after Immanuel Feyi-Waboso crossed the whitewash, changing their style to pressure the opposition through set-piece and kicking, but it was certainly a tense 80 minutes.
Praise must also go to England, who confirmed that they are a team on the up under Steve Borthwick and at times showed their developing all-court game. However, it was an opportunity missed for the Red Rose and there will be a fear that their best chance of beating the All Blacks in New Zealand for the first time since 2003 has gone.
New Zealand are known as slow starters and that theory will be tested this weekend; were the All Blacks rusty or does Robertson have a bigger job on his hands than everyone thinks?
The hosts also have the Eden Park factor in their favour. Everyone knows the fortress that they have built having not lost in Auckland for three decades.
Since 1994, their record reads 46 victories and two draws, which means England will have to do something no team has managed since France scored the ‘try from the end of the world’ to secure a 23-20 triumph 30 years ago.
Logically the home side should be better this weekend while the Red Rose are ending a long season and may still be thinking about the disappointment of last Saturday, but they have proven to be a resilient bunch this year, who also have both quality and physicality.
Equally, they now know more of what New Zealand will bring and can prepare accordingly. It should therefore be another thrilling Test, although the All Blacks fans will hope – and perhaps expect – a slightly more comfortable evening in Auckland.
Where the game will be won
As predicted, England had their issues in the scrum last weekend and the loss of Joe Marler certainly won’t help their cause, but they have had a week on the training paddock to get it right. However, sometimes there’s not much you can do when the quality of cattle falls below the required standard and that is the concern for Borthwick heading into the second Test.
There is a dearth of quality English-qualified props in the Premiership at the moment and, although there are some talented youngsters coming through, such as Fin Baxter and in the U20 squad currently out in South Africa, they are struggling in that department. In truth, the Red Rose did well not to make it the main factor in the first game but, should they falter there once again, that will give New Zealand more attacking opportunities.
The All Blacks had a few chances in the opening match but the visitors’ defence was excellent. Once again, they struggled against the rush rearguard and that will be a key target for Robertson on Saturday. Quite simply, how can New Zealand break down the blitz? It is an answer they are still searching for and it will be interesting to see if they’ve moved any closer to solving that puzzle at Eden Park.
What happened in Test one
What they said
All Blacks head honcho Robertson expects them to be much better this weekend after a rusty display in the opener at Forsyth Barr Stadium.
“Everyone knows where the classroom is now,” he said.
“It’s like the first week of school, you take a while to get your bearings, but we’ve got that now – how the teacher runs it all, the structure of the week – and we were straight into it with a good rhythm.”
Although plenty of the post-match talk revolved around New Zealand’s scratchy performance, Finlay Christie also believes that England will be frustrated after not getting the job done.
“They’ll be saying what if and seeing the pictures where they could have done things better as well,” Christie said. “In the second game, everyone’s going to be really firing. It’s going to be like that on Saturday.”
Meanwhile, England boss Borthwick believes that all the pressure will be on New Zealand considering their outstanding record at Eden Park.
“Eden Park is a stadium packed with history and with memories of great rugby encounters,” he said. “We are delighted to be playing there this Saturday in what I anticipate will be another excellent Test encounter.
“New Zealand has a formidable record at this venue, but with that comes the pressure of expectation. It will be interesting to see how New Zealand manages that expectation in front of a full house.”
Players to watch
One of the issues the All Blacks had was with their kicking game. TJ Perenara tended to go far too long, allowing England, with the dangerous George Furbank and Feyi-Waboso, to counter-attack, but Finlay Christie shored that up. Christie’s accurate box-kicking enabled the chasers to get into the match and to keep the Englishmen in their own half, something he will seek to do once again this weekend.
Sevu Reece had a fine second half in that department but it his opposite wing, Mark Tele’a, who they will hope to get more into the game this time around. Tele’a was a threat every time he had the ball, while his footwork and strength in traffic was exceptional, but more space wouldn’t go amiss for the speedster. It is why Damian McKenzie inevitably has a big role to play as he attempts to find ways around the rush defence. England do leave plenty of unoccupied grass in those outside channels as the wings fly in, but getting it there has been the All Blacks’ big challenge.
Meanwhile, up front, Codie Taylor and Scott Barrett will hope to connect better at the lineout. Although the scrum was strong, the lineout had its wobbles, which is perhaps unsurprising given the loss of Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock. Patrick Tuipulotu and Samipeni Finau are good jumpers but you suspect the Crusaders brains trust of Taylor and Barrett will be particularly important on Saturday.
If not then Maro Itoje will have a field day. The word-class lock has not necessarily had the most impressive couple of years by his high standards, but the Saracen was exceptional in Test one. Robertson named checked Itoje when discussing the All Blacks’ lineout issues, while he was also a nuisance in the maul and breakdown, winning a couple of turnovers. Alongside George Martin, that lock pairing made significant contributions, despite the 16-15 defeat.
The turnovers Itoje earned enabled the likes of Furbank and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso to counter. The Northampton Saints full-back has been the big surprise over the past few Tests, going from very good club man to an international standard player, but his late injury is a blow for the visitors. He was also excellent in defence and it means that his replacement, Freddie Steward, has a big role to play both with and without the ball. England’s system, like the Boks’ under Jacques Nienaber, places a big emphasis on the back three, and it is something the new combination need to adapt to.
Providing those two can impact both sides of the ball, that will set up chances for Marcus Smith, potentially off the tee. Smith had a good game with ball in hand, but he was surprisingly errant with his place-kicking, missing three shots at goal, including two easy efforts by his high standards. The fly-half has had a week to rectify that so he should be more accurate in Auckland.
Main head-to-head
The All Blacks front five has become a potent weapon since Jason Ryan came in as the forwards guru and they regularly shunted England into reverse at the scrum in the first Test. While Ethan de Groot did get it wrong technically on a couple of occasions, Tyrel Lomax was rock solid and his battle with rookie Fin Baxter will be vital. The old adage of no scrum, no win has often rung true and getting a stable platform is absolutely paramount for the Red Rose.
Should Lomax win his duel with Baxter, or perhaps even annihilate the 22-year-old in the set-piece, which is not out of the question, then that will give a number of opportunities for McKenzie and co. to weave their magic. Granted, England’s defence stood up well in Dunedin as their rush defence caused havoc but, if the pressure is unrelenting up front, the dam will eventually burst.
Prediction
We thoroughly expect Borthwick’s men to be competitive again but, with New Zealand having an extra week with Robertson, allied by playing at fortress Eden Park, it will be too much for the visitors to handle. England also have scrummaging concerns and, if that platform is taken away, New Zealand will claim a more comfortable win. All Blacks by 10 points.
Previous results
2024: New Zealand won 16-15 in Dunedin
2022: England and New Zealand drew 25-25 in London
2019: England won 19-7 in Yokohama
2018: New Zealand won 16-15 in London
2014: New Zealand won 24-21 in London
2014: New Zealand won 36-13 in Hamilton
2014: New Zealand won 28-27 in Dunedin
2014: New Zealand won 20-15 in Auckland
2013: New Zealand won 30-22 in London
2012: England won 38-21 in London
The teams
New Zealand: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele’a, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Dalton Papali’i, 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Beauden Barrett
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Ollie Lawrence, 11 Tommy Freeman, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 5 George Martin, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George, 1 Fin Baxter
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Ben Spencer, 22 Fin Smith, 23 Ollie Sleightholme
Date: Saturday, July 13
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 19:05 local (08:05 BST, 07:05 GMT)
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Damon Murphy (Australia), Pierre Brousset (France)
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia)
