All Blacks v Argentina preview: New Zealand set for another ‘nervy’ clash but ‘heavy favourites’ poised to kick-start Rugby Championship campaign
The All Blacks will be eager to bounce back against Argentina. (Photo by James Foy/Speed Media/Icon Sportswire)
Well, few saw that coming…
After Argentina stunned the All Blacks, securing their third victory over New Zealand in four years, the question is; can they do it again?
Recent history suggests not. In 2022, when they rocked up to Christchurch and came away with a 25-18 triumph, they were hammered by Ian Foster’s men a week later, shipping a half-century of points.
That fallibility of switching off after achieving something remarkable has been a consistent theme for Los Pumas, especially over recent years. The worry will be that it happens again at Eden Park, a place where the All Blacks have not lost for 30 years.
And yet, this weekend feels slightly different. The reaction of the Argentinian players last Saturday is telling in that. Granted, there were hugs and celebrations but there was none of sheer euphoria that greeted the success in 2022.
This time, a victory felt… expected, certainly from an Argentina perspective. Whereas before they faltered mentally, this side looks ready to do battle again, which will be a worry from Scott Robertson’s perspective.
The honeymoon is officially over for the new head coach who is unsurprisingly copping some criticism following the Rugby Championship defeat. It goes with the territory of being All Blacks boss but, you have to say, some of it is deserved.
New Zealand have yet to truly hit their stride under the Crusaders legend, with the team not putting in a performance to make you stand up and take notice. Perhaps that will come this weekend but, on their current form, it could well be another nervy 80 minutes for the hosts.
Where the game will be won
While our overall prediction was way off, we delved into the areas Los Pumas could have caused the home side problems and that came to fruition. With superb loose forwards Pablo Matera and Marcos Kremer excelling, they controlled the contact area and prevented the All Blacks from making too much ground across the gain line. They also made sure the scrum was not a factor and, later in the game, put pressure on the New Zealand lineout.
Perhaps the big surprise – and something not discussed in detail – was the effectiveness of the half-backs, Santiago Carreras and Gonzalo Bertranou, who upstaged Damian McKenzie and TJ Perenara. Perenara’s kicking game in particular was dreadful and it just enabled Los Pumas to consistently get on the front foot.
For Argentina, it is about repeating those basics, but their task will be made harder if the hosts can exert more pressure tactically via Perenara, McKenzie and Beauden Barrett. Will Jordan and Caleb Clarke are also good under the high ball and that aerial game is something they are looking to improve on significantly this weekend.
What happened in Round One
What they said
All Blacks head coach Robertson revealed why he opted to select Jordan on the wing with Barrett and McKenzie remaining at 15 and 10 respectively.
“We’ve gone for keeping a few combinations together and also a little bit of experience and what we think we need for this weekend, especially with a bit of wet weather coming,” he said.
“We believe Will’s skill set is perfect for this combination. Beauden [Barrett] is playing really good footy and they’ve worked together closely. They execute really well together so their experience we felt was best for this weekend.
“Everyone has got a role to play. You’ve got to exit well and everyone has to be clear on what we do and how we do it.”
Argentina captain Julian Montoya is excited to get back out on the field after returning to the XV for the second New Zealand Test.
“Being part of the team again is something that makes me very happy, I’m really looking forward to playing,” Montoya said.
“Watching the last game from the outside, I’m not going to lie, I was a little nervous, but seeing how the team played, I was calm. I’m happy that we played the way we did and to have the victory that we had. I hugged Pablo [Matera] and all the players.
“I don’t know if there will be another game without a scrum for 61 minutes but, you never know, we as front-rows are prepared, and we adapt to what happens on the field.”
Players to watch
Robertson has decided not to rip it up and start again but he has made four changes to his XV, three of those in the backline. Will Jordan and Caleb Clarke come into the team on the wing, and they will be tasked with rectifying the aerial game. It is something the All Blacks boss was particularly disappointed by in the first Argentina Test and we wouldn’t be surprised if it was that, rather than their skills with ball in hand, that was the primary reason for their inclusion.
Up front, they will hope the scrum is more of a factor this time around where Tyrel Lomax will thrive. He is joined in the front-row by Tamaiti Williams, who comes in for the injured Ethan de Groot and is an exciting talent. If they get the set-piece moving forward, it will help the back-row, which once again includes Ethan Blackadder and Dalton Papali’i. Both were comprehensively outplayed last weekend and New Zealand will need better performances from them in Auckland.
Last weekend, Blackadder and Papali’i were opposite Marcos Kremer, but Los Pumas’ gargantuan back five forward has moved from flanker to lock, with Juan Martin Gonzalez shifting into Kremer’s position from number eight. It is an interesting move from Felipe Contepomi, with the head coach sacrificing the extra lineout option to allow powerful and skilful carrier Joaquin Oviedo to come into the back-row at the base of the scrum.
It does look a stronger Argentina pack this weekend, especially with captain Julian Montoya back in the XV. Montoya is one of the best modern day hookers and he has a big role to play in all aspects of the set-piece, from scrum to the lineout and maul. Ignacio Ruiz, who is on the bench, did a fine job in his absence, but Montoya is another level up.
Main head-to-head
After last weekend, Robertson must surely have been tempted to change at least one of the half-backs. However, the head coach has given TJ Perenara and Damian McKenzie a chance to improve. He will particularly want more from Perenara after the scrum-half struggled at the base of the ruck. His box-kicking was poor and he failed to the All Blacks the territory required to get the team on the front foot.
In contrast, Gonzalo Bertranou and Santiago Carreras were excellent. They kicked effectively throughout, made the right decisions and also changed the point of contact in attack. With someone like Carreras, who has speed and excellent footwork, if you give him a platform, which Argentina did, he can be a real threat. The question has always been his ability to control a game when there are fewer opportunities to attack, but last weekend was a significant step in the right direction.
Prediction
We won’t be making the same mistake as last weekend and predicting a blowout – although it wouldn’t surprise us if it happens – but New Zealand are still heavy favourites. At fortress Eden Park, where they haven’t lost for 30 years, they should gain their revenge on Los Pumas. We are not wholly convinced by certain aspects of their selection but there is surely too much quality there to lose successive matches at home to Argentina. If they do then questions will be asked. All Blacks by 10 points.
Previous results
2024: Argentina won 38-30 in Wellington
2023: New Zealand won 44-6 in Paris
2023: New Zealand won 41-12 in Mendoza
2022: New Zealand won 53-3 in Hamilton
2022: Argentina won 25-18 in Christchurch
2021: New Zealand in 36-13 in Brisbane
2021: New Zealand won 39-0 in Gold Coast
2020: New Zealand won 38-0 in Newcastle
2020: Argentina won 25-15 in Sydney
2019: New Zealand won 20-16 in Buenos Aires
The teams
All Blacks: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea (c), 7 Dalton Papali’i, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Sam Cane, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Mark Tele’a
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallía, 14 Matias Moroni, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Joaquin Oviedo, 7 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 4 Marcos Kremer, 3 Lucio Sordoni, 2 Julian Montoya (c), 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Joel Sclavi, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Tomás Lavanini, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Thomas Albornoz, 23 Bautista Delguy
Date: Saturday, August 17
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 19:05 local (08:05 BST, 07:05 GMT)
Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Assistant Referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Nic Berry (Australia)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
