All Blacks stat padding Scott Robertson’s entry into Test rugby

A new era of All Blacks rugby begins in 2024 as Scott Robertson and his crew take over at the helm of New Zealand Rugby.

Robertson comes with a winning pedigree, having led the Crusaders to seven Super Rugby titles and was previously successful with Canterbury and the New Zealand u20s.

Having missed out on the All Blacks gig in 2020 and again in 2021, when results were going New Zealand’s way under his predecessor, Roberston finally gets his crack at the top job and has been given a bit of a soft landing in his first year in charge.

Protecting the Eden Park record

Ian Foster’s term in charge of the All Blacks was impacted by the pandemic, which meant there were no July internationals, with the two Tests against Wales and Scotland canned. He then faced off against bitter rivals Australia in four back-to-back Test matches.

It was a tough start for Foster, who drew his first Test in charge and lost the fourth, winning the two in between before falling to and then beating Argentina.

Navigating his first Test schedule certainly has its challenges for Robertson, but the bigwigs have set him up nicely, as they managed to avoid early banana skins with historical records on the line and some subtle stats padding.

For those unfamiliar with the term ‘stats padding’, it is commonly used in basketball when a player will purposefully make a decision to influence their personal stats, whether for pride or money. For example, they might turn down an easy lay-up to instead pass to a teammate to get another assist when chasing a triple-double (10 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists).

And NZ Rugby has seemingly subtly done something similar for their new boss, Robertson.

Make no mistake; he will face a tough challenge as England arrive in Aeoteroa at the tail end of their season, the midpoint for the New Zealand players. This is always the case when the northern hemisphere sides head down south, and with new systems and new combinations set to be thrown out in the opening Test, NZ Rugby has made sure that an early hiccup does not occur at their fortress, Eden Park.

The All Blacks have not lost a Test match at Eden Park since 1994 talling up 46 victories and two draws in that time. In 2022, they hosted Ireland at the famous ground in the first Test, but there is no chancing their arm with the record on the line this time around, with England heading to Dunedin first up.

Advantage in Dunedin

Forsyth Barr Stadium is a magnificent venue, but where the advantage does come in for the All Blacks, besides being at home, is that the ground is renowned for producing slick, attacking rugby, especially with the enclose roof providing a dry surface to work with. It certainly favours the traditional style of the All Blacks, and they are well within their right to select that particular stadium. However, it does hamstring England to a degree with Steve Borthwick’s kick-heavy tactical game, which won’t be as conducive.

While England might shift gears in their approach in 2024, it was their outstanding contestable kicking game that put the Springboks under immense pressure in the World Cup semi-final. Borthwick may well change things up with Felix Jones joining his coaching staff, but there are no ways he discards their effective tactical kicking game entirely – in modern Test rugby, that would be daft, to put it politely.

New Zealand then host England at Eden Park in the second test match, with Robertson able to identify any chinks in his team and the opposition for the next Test.

New Zealand will be wary of suffering just a third loss on home soil to England, and the second in the professional era, in 2024 and have set their new boss up nicely to avoid just that.

Following those two matches, Robertson and co head off to San Diego to face off against Fiji in a historic Test match. The All Blacks wouldn’t have been too concerned about the threat the Fijians pose, but if there is an unlikely hiccup against Rugby World Cup 2023’s darlings, then at least it wasn’t on home soil.

It’s unlikely that NZ Rugby will have had much control over where the faced their fiercest rivals, the Springboks, in South Africa but certainly will have for their home matches against Argentina and Australia, the former being hosted at Eden Park and the latter against former assistant and new Wallabies boss Joe Schmidt in Wellington. Schmidt will undoubtedly be targetting a statement win in New Zealand but won’t have the luxury of doing so at the All Blacks’ fortress – a venue they haven’t won at in their last 22 attempts and 38 years.

The All Blacks certainly have a challenging 14 Test matches ahead of them in Robertson’s first year in charge, facing all but one of the World Cup quarter-finalists, Wales, but the governing body has certainly made things easier for their new boss to pad his stats at the start of his tenure.

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The All Blacks 2024 Test schedule

New Zealand v England
Date: Saturday, 6 July
Venue: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

New Zealand v England
Date: Saturday, 13 July
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland

New Zealand v Fiji
Date: Saturday, 20 July
Venue: SnapDragon Stadium, San Diego

New Zealand v Argentina
Date: Saturday, 10 August
Venue: Sky Stadium, Wellington

New Zealand v Argentina
Date: Saturday, 17 August
Venue: Eden Park, New Zealand

South Africa v New Zealand
Date: Saturday, 31 August
Venue: Ellis Park, Johannesburg

South Africa v New Zealand
Date: Saturday, 7 September
Venue: DHL Stadium, Cape Town

Australia v New Zealand
Date: Saturday, 21 September
Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney

New Zealand v Australia
Date: Saturday, 28 September
Venue: Sky Stadium, Wellington

Japan v New Zealand
Date: Saturday, 26 October
Venue: Nissan Stadium, Yokohama

England v New Zealand
Date: Saturday, 2 November
Venue: Twickenham Stadium, London

Ireland v New Zealand
Date: Saturday, 9 November
Venue: TBC

France v New Zealand
Date: Saturday, 16 November
Venue: TBC

Italy v New Zealand
Date: Saturday, 23 November
Venue: TBC