All Blacks predicted team v Springboks: Beauden Barrett to make Test return but not Rieko Ioane as Dave Rennie set for backline reshuffle
Beauden Barrett and Rieko Ioane in action for the All Blacks against the Bulls.
Ahead of the All Blacks’ clash against the Springboks in Johannesburg this weekend, we predict the team that Dave Rennie will select for the much-anticipated first Test.
New Zealand’s head coach has spent the past three tour matches assessing his options and trying combinations, and it will be interesting to see how much that plays a part in his selections for the opener.
15 Will Jordan
According to Rennie, out of the injury worries for Will Jordan, Cam Roigard and Damian McKenzie, he is least confident of the latter making it so we have worked on that basis. If McKenzie is indeed out, then Jordan should slot back into full-back. If the head coach wants to go like-for-like, Beauden Barrett could well come in, especially since he played against the Bulls at 15, but Jordan, while not being an out-and-out playmaker, does have an incredible rugby brain and a fine passing game.
14 Leroy Carter
Jordan will be in this slot if McKenzie is fit but Carter is the favourite to take the right wing role if not. Fehi Fineanganofo was impressive in difficult conditions against the Sharks, but Carter has been a standout in the other two All Blacks tour matches and has more experience in the 14 shirt at Test level. He also shone in his half-hour against Italy in the Nations Championship and is slightly more reliable under the high ball at the moment.
13 Quinn Tupaea
An easy pick this after a series of fine displays under Rennie. Billy Proctor has been ruled out through injury, albeit his performances have not been good enough to usurp Tupaea anyway, while Anton Lienert-Brown and Rieko Ioane are currently not in the conversation to be a starter.
12 Jordie Barrett
Another call which goes without saying after Barrett shone in the Nations Championship. The Hurricanes didn’t necessarily need to impress in the tour games in the build-up to the Tests but, in his one match so far, the 29-year-old was utterly exceptional anyway as New Zealand hammered the Sharks in Durban.
11 Josh Moorby
Caleb Clarke’s injury has made the call a bit more straightforward for the All Blacks boss, although it will likely be a shootout between Moorby and Carter if McKenzie is fit. But to be honest, we think the head coach now sees him ahead of the Chiefs speedster thanks to his displays in a black jersey over the past couple of months. Always a threat with the ball and excellent in the air, which will be vital this weekend.
10 Ruben Love
No real debate here, certainly for the first Test at least, as it has been confirmed that Richie Mo’unga will not be considered for the opener. Love was impressive enough in the Nations Championship, and we felt the fly-half took another step forward in the victory over the Sharks, which means he will get the nod at Ellis Park.
9 Cam Roigard
There is still a slight injury cloud hanging over Roigard and he has not played since the July Tests, but there is quite simply no doubt that he starts for New Zealand if fit. He is streets ahead of his All Blacks scrum-half rivals at the moment.
8 Ardie Savea (c)
The captain has not featured in any of the three tour games having only arrived in South Africa last week, but that does not matter as Savea is another shoo-in to face the Springboks. Peter Lakai has done well at number eight recently, but it has been nowhere near enough to usurp the skipper.
7 Luke Jacobson
Anton Segner laid down a marker with his quite incredible display against the Bulls, but Rennie is clearly a big fan of the Chiefs openside and, for the first Test at least, the All Blacks boss will retain Jacobson, and quite rightly so. He has more than justified the head coach’s faith in him by excelling in the Nations Championship and impressing against the Sharks.
6 Tupou Vaa’i
It has been suggested that his selection at blindside against Ireland was with a view to the Springboks so it makes sense for the tourists to have him on the side of the scrum in Johannesburg. That call paid off in the Nations Championship and having him in the back-row will give them more ballast and lineout expertise.
5 Patrick Tuipulotu
There would be a temptation to have either Sam Darry or Fabian Holland in the second-row but, once again, because it’s the Springboks, Tuipulotu gives them that extra physicality at close quarters. His leadership has also been an underrated and important factor in his selection.
4 Josh Lord
As mentioned above, Holland and Darry are pressing hard and Rennie would have been mightily impressed by the former’s return from injury, but Lord is the man in possession of the shirt. The head coach stated before the tour that he had already pencilled in the first Test team, so those two may well come into contention later in the tour.
3 Fletcher Newell
Pasilio Tosi’s performance in the opener against the Stormers effectively ruled him out of the Tests, while Siale Lauaki, despite plenty of promise, is slightly too raw for the cauldron of Ellis Park against the world champions, which means Newell and Tyrel Lomax will be in the 23. So who starts? It was Lomax against Ireland and the ‘Canes tighthead also put in a mighty 60-minute shift against the Bulls, but we think having an all-Hurricanes front-row on the bench would be preferable, especially against the Boks’ Bomb Squad.
2 Codie Taylor
Got 40 minutes under his belt on Saturday after injury and that will be enough for him to start the opening Test. Had a fine outing in the victory over the Bulls and he sets the tone in the set-piece before he hands over to the more impactful Asafo Aumua or Samisoni Taukei’aho.
1 Ethan de Groot
Xavier Numia looks a real talent and he was destructive from the start on Saturday, but he looks to be the ideal impact replacement, which means De Groot will start. The Highlanders prop has rediscovered his mojo under Rennie with a series of good performances in the Nations Championship.
Bench: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Anton Segner, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Beauden Barrett
It is a tight battle between Aumua and Taukei’aho, who are both wonderful impact players, but the former just has the edge on him this year, while Numia clearly takes the role at loosehead. George Bower is a serviceable player at Test level, but the 27-year-old has something special about him. Completing the replacement front-row is a third Hurricane, Lomax, as having that franchise combination just makes sense, especially against the Springboks.
In the back five, having Vaa’i at blindside gives Rennie the opportunity to put two loose forwards on the bench. Segner has been utterly sublime every time he has worn the black jersey, while Lakai has moved ahead of Wallace Sititi, who has not found his 2024 form since the new head coach has come in.
The All Blacks boss hasn’t shown any sign of moving away from the 5-3 split, so behind the scrum we think he will include Ratima and Lienert-Brown. Kyle Preston was excellent against the Sharks but his rival has not let New Zealand down on this tour while the Crusaders man probably didn’t do his chances any good with his performance in the second period on Saturday. The final place is more difficult but, if McKenzie is out, they need another playmaker in the squad and Barrett was much-improved against the Bulls, which means Ioane misses out despite an excellent tour so far.
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