All Blacks predicted team v France: Dave Rennie to make ‘statement selection’ as Beauden Barrett pays price for ‘abysmal’ form
All Blacks head coach Dave Rennie and struggling fly-half Beauden Barrett.
Ahead of the All Blacks’ clash against France at One NZ Stadium in Christchurch next weekend, we predict the team that Dave Rennie will select for the Nations Championship opener.
It is of course Rennie’s first game since taking charge after NZ Rugby took the brutal decision to dismiss Scott Robertson in January. There are plenty of tight selection calls and it is difficult to know where the head coach will turn but, taking into account form and the 62-year-old’s selection preferences, this is the 23 we think will take on Les Bleus.
15 Damian McKenzie
With no out-and-out full-back, it will likely be between McKenzie, Beauden Barrett and bolter Josh Moorby, who did it on occasion for the Hurricanes in Super Rugby Pacific, for the 15 jersey. We ultimately feel that Rennie will go for the Chief, however, given his form and experience, and the fact that he will suit the new head coach’s style of play, especially on transition.
14 Josh Moorby
A big call to thrust the newbie into the starting line-up but injuries have impacted the back three for the All Blacks and Leroy Carter has only just returned from injury. That leaves Moorby as the only other right wing in the squad and with a record-breaking 17 tries this season, he deserves an opportunity. The 27-year-old also has excellent aerial skills, which is crucial for Test rugby, and has experience of French rugby having spent a season at Montpellier.
13 Quinn Tupaea
Not his natural position as such and there must be temptation to have another Hurricane in the backline given their form in 2026, but we reckon the head coach will opt for Tupaea over Billy Proctor. The Chiefs star formed a good partnership with Jordie Barrett when they played together in the midfield last season and it is worth another go.
12 Jordie Barrett
An easy choice with Barrett utterly magnificent for the ‘Canes throughout the season, which culminated in a majestic display in the Super Rugby Pacific showpiece event. While he could technically fill that troublesome full-back spot, it would be madness to shift him from 12 where he has been so good over the past few years.
11 Fehi Fineanganofo
It might be seen as a risk to have two debutants out wide but it just seems the most logical choice as Fineanganofo has been irresistible in a yellow jersey this year. It is time for him to put a black one on and show what he is all about in Test rugby after scoring 17 tries for the Hurricanes. Although it will be a bold call to play a pair of rookies on the wing, Rennie has never been afraid of making a statement selection.
10 Ruben Love
Prior to the Super Rugby final, it was a toss up between Love and McKenzie but the former’s utter domination over the latter should have made up Rennie’s mind. There are elements of the 25-year-old’s game that we’re not sure is quite ready for Test rugby just yet, but that is something the All Blacks need to find out and he deserves his shot.
9 Cam Roigard
No discussion here. Comfortably the best scrum-half in New Zealand and now one of the best in the world. The concern for Rennie will be if Roigard gets injured as he is streets ahead of his All Blacks rivals.
8 Wallace Sititi
Unfortunately missed the Super Rugby final due to concussion but appears to have recovered given that the All Blacks have not called in injury cover. Is likely competing for the number eight spot with Peter Lakai, and the ‘Canes man is someone Rennie will love given his work ethic around the field, but Sititi is just that bit special. Does the nuts and bolts well like Lakai does but he has that something extra.
7 Ardie Savea (c)
Another one where there will be no debate. Rennie has made him captain and the head coach will put him in the back-row. There is an outside chance it could be at number eight, but he seems to have settled at openside over the past couple of years.
6 Simon Parker
There is a possibility that he goes with a Sititi, Savea and Lakai combination, but we would surprised as it doesn’t really fit with Rennie’s modus operandi. As a result, one of Parker, Luke Jacobson and Anton Segner should start and we have gone with the Chief, who became a key part of the All Blacks 23 last season. Does excellent work at close quarters and will allow Savea and Sititi to thrive.
5 Tupou Vaa’i
There are concussion concerns which could well impact this team selection, but providing Vaa’i is good to go, he is a guaranteed pick at lock. The second-row has enjoyed another outstanding campaign at Super Rugby level and will take his place in the front five if fit.
4 Josh Lord
With Scott Barrett out, who partners Vaa’i is slightly up in the air, but it makes sense to go for the all-Chiefs pairing. Patrick Tuipulotu is better off the bench and Sam Darry hasn’t quite done enough to get in the side despite a brilliant season for an underperforming Blues outfit.
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3 Tyrel Lomax
A difficult call at tighthead with three excellent options for Rennie to choose from. If it was purely based on Super Rugby then Pasilio Tosi would get it but Lomax remains a world-class prop and proved his fitness at the end of the season after a troublesome time with injury. Tosi may have been the Hurricanes’ starter but, at Test level, he feels better suited to an impact role.
2 Codie Taylor
Samisoni Taukei’aho and Asafo Aumua are snapping at his heels but, thanks to his experience, leadership and set-piece expertise, Taylor is still performing at a very high level and is the ideal starting hooker. The other two can add the dynamism off the bench but the Crusaders man sets the tone.
1 Ethan de Groot
Has looked back to his best this season after a few struggles in 2024 and 2025 and is an obvious pick with Tamaiti Williams out. A world-class player at his best, De Groot will take that loosehead shirt for France clash.
Bench: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Billy Proctor, 23 Leroy Carter
There is a real temptation to go with a 6-2 split, and we think Rennie will trial it eventually, but we believe he will opt for the traditional 5-3 in the Nations Championship opener. There are plenty of tight calls, whether it’s at hooker with Taukei’aho and Aumua battling for the spot or at tighthead where Fletcher Newell and Tosi both have strong cases.
Equally, Darry has been in outstanding form for the Blues but Tuipulotu is the better impact replacement and should be the lock cover. Lakai can cover both openside and number eight, and has been in stunning form for the Hurricanes, so has to be in the 23 somewhere. Both Sititi and Vaa’i can shift to six if that spot needs to be filled during the game.
As for the backs, Kyle Preston has been exceptional off the bench for the Crusaders and could well fulfil that role against France, with his rival for the back-up role, Cortez Ratima, not having a good season for the Chiefs. The next two spots are also difficult to predict and it is a big call to leave out Beauden Barrett, but he has had an abysmal couple of months in Super Rugby.
With McKenzie and Love already in the squad, they don’t need another playmaker, which is why Billy Proctor and Carter get the nod. Proctor has been superb for the ‘Canes and Carter covers both wing positions as he gets in over Caleb Clarke. The Blues speedster has actually played pretty well in a side that has struggled in attack but the Chiefs flyer just has a bit more versatility.
