Loose Pass: Contrasting fortunes of the Auld enemies
This week we will mostly be concerning ourselves with Scotland’s and England’s differing fortunes this season…in the context of Europe.
Tae think again…
We’ll assume that Glasgow upsetting Saracens probably won’t happen, and further that Glasgow might not thus squeeze into one of the best runners-up spots for the European Champions Cup quarter-finals. But that they are even in the frame is something, not least because Edinburgh are there as well.
There have been just three Scottish quarter-final appearances in the 22 years of European top-tier competition. There have been a few shock results in Scotland, but rarely any kind of sustained challenge or charge to the sort of European infamy enjoyed by Saracens, Munster, Leinster or Toulouse. It is starting to change, however, with Edinburgh already having conquered Toulon and Montpellier and Glasgow bullying Cardiff Blues convincingly twice, as well as running Saracens close.
The earnest work put into the two sides and the academies underneath is absolutely starting to pay off. You would now need both hands – at least – to name Scottish players who would have legitimate shots at a Lions squad.
Which rather begs the question: is this to be a sustained Scottish resurgence? And as a follow-up: is this going to translate to international level too?
You’d have to think so. Whatever scorn is poured on the idea that European form is no barometer for international form, it’s tough to ignore the obvious links between the success, collectively, of the Irish provinces and the national team, just as it was tough to dispel the notion last year that the decline of English teams’ performance in Europe was a pre-cursor to England’s dire Six Nations. How Wales manage to maintain their relative success is the anomaly.
Scotland have three of their first four Six Nations fixtures at home this year, including a fine-tuning starter against Italy, who continue to struggle for momentum. Trips to Paris and Twickenham will be tough, but the visit to London is on the final weekend, when England’s bolt might be shot (more on that in a moment). We’re not about to go out and stick a tenner on a Scottish Grand Slam, but we are sure that Scotland’s resurgence is for real this time.
Meanwhile, down south…
If European form is a barometer for the Six Nations, England are in for a rough ride. Chucking in away fixtures in Dublin and Cardiff, and sandwiching a home match with the unpredictable French is a nasty start for a squad that is as depleted as it is tired.
While Saracens continue to carry the Premiership in Europe, even Exeter have found the raised intensity and international element a little too much. They travel to Munster on Saturday, needing a win to progress. Continuing the barometer theme for a moment, it’s a little difficult to dispel the notion that Saturday’s game is a sort of pre-cursor to the clash in Dublin in a fortnight’s time, and that Friday’s result will give us an idea of what to expect when green meets white.
Elsewhere, English clubs are horribly off the pace. Watching Bath and Wasps fighting out a meaningless and turgid affair to avoid finishing last in their pool was torture for fans, a little like hearing that Holyfield was entering a rematch with Tyson for neutrals. Leicester are also desperately trying to avoid the ignominy of last place in the pool, as are Gloucester and Newcastle. It’s possible that four out of five European pools could have English teams in last place this season – how that cannot be a pre-cursor to a tough Six Nations is anybody’s guess.
As the Premiership mulls over ring-fencing, extended seasons, more cash and all the lovely things that CVC’s deal may bestow upon them, the RFU will be tearing its hair out that the national team continues to be beleaguered by the clubs and what appears to be chronic overplaying of players – a point Cherry and Whites boss Johan Ackermann made this week. If the national team starts to struggle in earnest, fans in England are in for a rough ride over the next few months.
Loose Pass compiled by Lawrence Nolan