Key storylines ahead of Super Rugby
Mental battles for the Rebels and Force and a window on who is the best side in South Africa are among this week’s major narratives.
1) Scarred Rebels?
Coming off the most gut-wrenching defeat of the season, Saturday’s visit to Dunedin is not exactly the friendliest of returns to action for the Rebels. Outstanding in the first half against the Waratahs, the Rebels then stumbled horrifically in the second to lose out to David Horwitz’s last-minute try.
As odd as it sounds, considering the Rebels are winless thus far in 2017 through four matches, their recent efforts against the Chiefs and Waratahs have been far from hopeless. The breakdown work of Colby Fainga’a has been excellent, and Reece Hodge’s partnership with Tom English in midfield is starting to bear fruit too.
The issue is that the Highlanders are going to click at some point, with their stuttering lineout a fixable flaw, and the selection of Marty Banks is two games late after giving young gun Fletcher Smith the chance to impress. Factor in the always entertaining crowd under the roof at the Forsyth Barr, and this trip for the Rebels is a rough one.
They can cause problems and frustrate just as they have done in the last two weeks. But that might not be enough, especially when there is a mental obstacle to overcome having thrown away a golden chance against the Waratahs.
2) Force’s mental state
Speaking of psyche, despite strongly worded statements to the contrary from both the Force and the ARU, the trapdoor appears to be already open for the Force should South Africa agree to drop two sides from Super Rugby at the next SANZAAR meeting on April 6.
That of course is not entirely straightforward, as outlined here regarding the Kings, but the reports of the franchise being shut down and contracted players being reallocated by the ARU is bound to have some effect on even the most efficent of professionals.
Last Friday’s 45-17 scoreline away to the Crusaders failed to tell the whole story – although the lack of ball awareness at the ruck was unforgiveable for Luke Romano’s try – but taking on a Blues side with their tails up having dispatched the Bulls last weekend will test their defence once again. Something too has to give in attack, given that no other side has made fewer clean breaks so far this year.
3) Reds on a plate for Hurricanes
Back in Brisbane after tough defeats to the Lions and Jaguares, it does not get any easier for the Reds as they prepare for the visit of the champions. What’s more the Hurricanes cross the Tasman having enjoyed a rest week.
Real leadership comes back into the Reds side in the shape of Rob Simmons and George Smith but this is still an extremely young group, who apart from Samu Kerevi, still just 23, have too often looked to lack the game-breaking quality required to challenge at the top again both in the Australian Conference and come the end of the season.
Understandably for a side leading the way when it comes to tries and clean breaks in 2017, there is plenty to like about the Hurricanes.
The Barretts and Saveas have rightly been praised, so too rising stars Ngani Laumape and Matt Proctor, but the pack as well deserves huge credit for the way the ‘Canes have started the season in steamrolling fashion, save for that defeat away to the Chiefs. Brad Shields will surely be capped by the All Blacks at some point this year.
4) Who is the best in South Africa?
With the Kings on a bye and the lacklustre Bulls out of the country, South Africa’s domestic double header on Saturday should offer some concrete pointers towards who is the best of the bunch.
The Stormers remain unbeaten, as are the Lions in South Africa, and home ties to the Cheetahs and Sharks offer up potential scares that both Africa Conference winners from last year will be expected to triumph in.
Sharks’ fly-half Curwin Bosch can sway that contest in Johannesburg and looks the real deal, making his Springbok training camp no surprise. And it would come as a shock to see the Cheetahs fail to score two or three tries at Newlands given the threat they pack out wide.
That said, the Lions are still far too slick an operation to flounder at home, particularly given the excellent form key players Elton Jantjies and Jaco Kriel are in.
The Stormers’ travel back from Singapore shouldn’t be ignored and they continue to be hit hard by injuries, Rynhardt Elstadt’s three-month absence being a major blow given the work he offers in the back row. As the emergence of EW Viljoen has shown though, there is real squad depth in Cape Town.
5) Crusaders yardstick clash in Sydney
Hard to believe after those heart-stopping comebacks against the Highlanders, Reds and Blues that the Crusaders are still unbeaten, and yet Scott Robertson’s squad find themselves top of the overall table by two points ahead of the Lions.
The absence of Kieran Read and injuries to Israel Dagg and Richie Mo’unga have been coped with impressively, hats off in that regard especially to Mitch Hunt at fly-half, while Digby Ioane has shown flashed of his old self as well against the Reds and Force.
Sunday’s trip to Sydney is comfortably their toughest fixture since that remarkable turnaround in Dunedin and against a Waratahs outfit buoyed by their own late game heroics over the Rebels. Israel Folau’s return to full-back was the right move while Michael Hooper has been his ever-excellent self, supported by young guns in the back row Ned Hanigan and Michael Wells.
Where the balance tips in the Crusaders’ favour for now though centres around the doubts over Bernard Foley’s fitness after a recurrence of his concussion symptoms. Top quality in Melbourne, should he miss out then the odds will only shorten for the visitors. Winning in Sydney would send a real message.