France to just miss out on the Six Nations title

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And so it came down to one game. After the thrills of ‘Super Saturday’, where France denied Wales the Grand Slam, Les Bleus now have their own chance to claim the title.

On reflection, it is somewhat disappointing that one of the greatest ever Six Nations matches did not yield a tournament winner, but that is the nature of the current Covid climate.

The French will merely be thankful for the opportunity after an outbreak postponed the original encounter and had many people, quite rightly, calling for Fabien Galthie’s men to forfeit the encounter.

That ultimately would have been the fairest outcome, particularly since Scotland have effectively been penalised on several fronts for doing no wrong, but understandably the organisers want it to be decided on the field.

France’s task is quite simple in the mathematical sense: win with a bonus-point and by 21 points or more, but the Scots will not be easy opponents. While it has been a frustrating campaign for Gregor Townsend’s charges, the two games they have lost have been by the tightest of margins and their team is a well-balanced unit.

Galthie’s side are clear favourites but it will be a mightily tough ask to thrash a Scotland outfit that are improving and have been competitive throughout the 2021 Six Nations.

Last time they met

France got their revenge for a disappointing 28-17 defeat in the Six Nations, which cost them a Grand Slam, by overcoming Scotland in the Autumn Nations Cup. The French were far more threatening with ball in hand but the sides went in level at the break as the teams traded kicks at goal. However, the key moment came early in the second period as Virimi Vakatawa scampered over for a try. It proved decisive with Les Bleus sealing a 22-15 triumph on their way to the final of the competition.

What they said

France head coach Fabien Galthie insists that it is important they don’t get carried away by chasing tries too early.

“We can’t get caught up in the high stakes,” he said. “We have to win the match, the rest will come later.

“We have to focus on our performance and winning the match, then we’ll see what happens next. Our opponents also have a lot to play for, namely to finish second in the Six Nations. We will all focus on winning the game.

“The Scots have the best defence in the Championship. They are very well-organised, well-disciplined and well-established in defence. They are the best in this sector so far.”

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend believes in his squad’s ability and has backed returning star fly-half Finn Russell to produce a top quality performance.

“We feel we’re capable of going there and getting a result,” he said. “If we do deliver an 80-minute performance we’d be more than just competitive. We didn’t fire many shots against them in November but that game was right down to the wire.

“I’d hope they would know we’re a tough opponent for them. I think it’s an important game for Finn (Russell), given that he plays in France. I’m sure it’s a game he looks forward to more than any other in the year.

“I’m sure he’s just itching to get back out there and play for Scotland and lead this team, lead the team in attack, be really connected with those around him, and there will be opportunities that present themselves for a player like Finn.”

Players to watch

The change in French rugby has really come due to the development at fly-half. For so long, Les Bleus lacked a player to complement their bunch of outstanding scrum-halves, but that has altered over the past couple of years. Maybe it is coincidence but perhaps they have simply realised that having a top quality operator at 10 is necessary for a modern international team. In Matthieu Jalibert and Romain Ntamack, they have two young stars that have taken easily to top level rugby, while Louis Carbonel could very well make the step should that duo be unavailable.

With Jalibert out of Friday’s clash, Ntamack, who himself has recently returned from injury, will take his place at pivot. There was unsurprisingly a bit of ring rust from the Toulouse man when he came on in the first half against Wales, but he improved as the match went on and played a vital role in the final 10 minutes. He has a relatively stable backline outside of him – although the introduction of Arthur Vincent at centre is an interesting one – but the French will look for more from their forwards.

Wales were relatively comfortable for much of their encounter last weekend, but Bernard le Roux’s return should give Les Bleus a defensive focal point at lock on Friday. They were a bit soft on ‘Super Saturday’, allowing the Welsh to make metres all too easily, but Le Roux is one of the best around at making big hits and driving opponents backwards. They could do with that rearguard aggression, particularly when the Scots have Duhan van der Merwe in their ranks.

The South African-born wing has been superb since making the step up to Test level and was in stunning form as they hammered Italy last weekend. With Finn Russell back directing operations from fly-half, those two could potentially find and create holes in the French defence. Van der Merwe’s presence does certainly take some of the pressure off the Scottish forward carriers, who lack the size of England, France, Wales or Ireland. They have a very good, technically efficient set-piece but certainly don’t have that gain line presence in the forward eight. It means that back-row Nick Haining and loosehead prop Rory Sutherland – alongside Hamish Watson, Scotland’s better ball carriers – will need big games.

Main head-to-head

We are very much looking forward to the battle between the two number sevens with Charles Ollivon and Hamish Watson both pivotal as to how the teams operate. Although the France flanker is effectively a blindside the French don’t really have what you would consider a natural openside, which is similar to the way England boss Eddie Jones used James Haskell and Chris Robshaw in 2016 and 2017.

Watson is therefore a very different player but the influence they both have on their respective sides is huge. The Scottish tearaway is one of the best fetchers around while he is also a surprisingly powerful carrier, despite not being particularly big. Ollivon is similarly potent with ball in hand but, unlike the smaller Watson, is an important cog in his team’s lineout. He will also look to disrupt Scotland’s ball and will target the visitors’ set-piece following the injury to Jonny Gray.

Prediction

France know the task in hand, but we don’t think they will do enough to wrestle the title from Wales’ grasp. Scotland have endured a frustrating tournament but they will be stubborn opposition for the French and Fabien Galthie’s men weren’t exactly convincing last weekend. The visitors also have the players to cause the hosts problems and there is a risk of Les Bleus overplaying should things not go their way early on. France will win but it won’t land them silverware. France by 10.

Previous results

2020: France won 22-15 in Edinburgh
2020: Scotland won 28-17 in Edinburgh
2019: Scotland won 17-14 in Edinburgh
2019: France won 32-3 in Nice
2019: France won 27-10 in Paris
2018: Scotland won 32-26 in Edinburgh
2017: France won 22-16 in Paris
2016: Scotland won 29-18 in Edinburgh

The teams

France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Virimi Vakatawa, 12 Arthur Vincent, 11 Gael Fickou, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont, 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Charles Ollivon (c), 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Swan Rebbadj, 4 Bernard le Roux, 3 Mohamed Haouas, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16 Camille Chat, 17 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 18 Uini Atonio, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Dylan Cretin, 21 Baptiste Serin, 22 Anthony Bouthier, 23 Teddy Thomas

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg (c), 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Nick Haining, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Sam Skinner, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Rory Sutherland
Replacements: 16 David Cherry, 17 Oli Kebble, 18 Simon Berghan, 19 Alex Craig, 20 Ryan Wilson, 21 Scott Steele, 22 Adam Hastings, 23 Huw Jones

Date: Friday, March 26
Venue: Stade de France, Paris
Kick-off: 21:00 local (20:00 GMT)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (England), Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Tom Foley (England)

 

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