Five storylines ahead of the Champions Cup quarter-finals

David Skippers
Add as a preferred source on Google

Ahead of the Champions Cup quarter-finals, Planet Rugby features writer James While gives us the stories to keep an eye on this weekend.

Game time and breakdown

With a disparity in match time between the English, Irish and French sides since rugby resumed after Covid-19, both the Premiership and PRO14 sides hold a significant advantage over the Top 14 teams. With six matches and four matches played respectively, the English and Irish quarter-finalists are battle hardened and rugby fit, and crucially will have had a lot more time to adapt to the new interpretations around the breakdown.

French teams have managed just two fixtures apiece since lockdown, and a cursory glance at those games will have displayed a slightly less strict interpretation of bodies at breakdown, rolling away and jackaling for the ball. However, with lockdown restrictions meaning that only French and English referees have been appointed, we do expect this to balance itself out, with the one beneficiary possibly being Ulster, who will be pleased Wayne Barnes is whistling their visit to Toulouse.

But the benefit of the extra games cannot be discounted, and we expect this to firmly assist the Home Unions sides, with the English clubs holding the ace card of completing six games since resumption.

Can Saracens turn their season around?

Travelling to four-time European Champions Leinster is never a fixture for the faint-hearted but it’s precisely the challenge that Saracens – the bad boys of English rugby – face this weekend. With all of their stars available, it would be a huge challenge, but with the absence of the suspended Owen Farrell, that task has become even bigger for Mark McCall’s men.

In the last two meetings between the sides in Europe, it’s one apiece but the 20-10 Saracens victory in the 2018/19 final will be the one that sticks most in the Irish minds. In truth, Leinster are coming into this game after three testing run-outs in the PRO14, where their last matches have included two dogged scraps against arch-rivals Munster – featuring an aerial bombardment of their back three that full-back Jordan Larmour will want to forget. However, normal service was resumed in the PRO14 Final, as an inspired performance saw them beat Ulster 27-5.

Saracens, meanwhile, shorn of many of their former stars due to finance amelioration, have been playing for pride and little else, yet they’ve still managed a top two placing in the Premiership if their points deduction is removed from the occasion. Their season is absolutely dead at domestic level and the only single motivation they’ve had is the European title they are so desperate to defend. They’re desperate men and this is their last chance saloon, a fact that won’t be lost upon Leinster coaches Leo Cullen and Stuart Lancaster.

Expect a feisty, physical performance from the Men In Black, which will be characterised by Alex Goode’s rugby intellect, assuming he starts at fly-half, with Maro Itoje, arguably the most complete forward in world rugby, placing a cloak of stifling tackle, kick chase and ruck disruption upon the home side. We take Saracens by a score in a game that may well define their season.

Key match-up: Although likely to be playing in different positions, Goode is sure to have taken note of Larmour’s frailties under the high ball against Munster and he’ll be dropping bomb after bomb on Ireland’s flyer who needs to up his catching and counter-attack in response.

Racing for the title

A mouth-watering all-Top 14 affair in France sees first placed Racing 92 travel to the cauldron of Clermont Auvergne to see if they can take their league form into the knockout format. Since the restart, Racing have been in compelling form, taking the points in their 27-23 defeat of Lyon before hammering the talented Montpellier 41-17 the week after.

Clermont have not resumed so well, scraping past 13-man Toulouse at home with a last gasp try, and then losing to an Ugo Boniface-inspired Bayonne on the road.

Racing have been the perennial bridesmaids in Europe since their reformation, losing twice in finals to Saracens and Leinster. Nevertheless, the speed and pace they possess in their back division will suit well the wide pitch at the Stade Marcel Michelin, and their pack, with Eddy Ben Arous, Camille Chat, Wenceslas Lauret and Bernard Le Roux, are tailor made to embrace the new breakdown interpretations. The final result rests on if the Parisians can play the game at a faster tempo, using their pace and mobility to take the match away from the set-piece strengths of Clermont. We see Racing as emerging victorious, but by the tightest of margins.

Key match-up: The battle at fly-half will be crucial. Camille Lopez should take the reins for the hosts but who will Racing select at pivot? Logic dictates that it will be Finn Russell, who was in sparkling form for the Parisians against Montpellier, but will his enigmatic approach be too much for a huge quarter-final? His alternative is Francois Trinh-Duc, a player that has been known for brain fades but he should at least stay on-script if they go behind. Racing tend to play fast and loose but, in a match as big as this, a conservative approach may well be the order of the day.

The Toulouse trek

Ulster will travel to Toulouse, battle hardened by their loss in the PRO14 title final, and benefiting from two more matches since resumption over four-time champions Toulouse, who are arguably the most successful side in the history of European rugby. The visitors will have benefited from twice as much rugby post restart than their hosts and also have just come off a tough and challenging fixture against Leinster.

You could argue powerfully that they’ll be sharper, more accustomed to the new breakdown interpretations and it might just be that which gives the Northern Irish side a practical advantage facing a Toulouse outfit that, by their exalted standards, have had something of a mediocre year. We see that law interpretation as a key factor, as the outstanding Barnes has really set the standards in the Premiership for no-nonsense, clutter free ruck officiating. We expect Ulster’s greater match sharpness and ability to react to Barnes’ wishes for a high tempo game as a key factor that may negate home advantage, providing they can significantly reduce the error count that proved so costly in their PRO14 final against Leinster.

Key match-up: There’s no question in our minds here that the battle between the scrum-halves will define the fortunes of their respective sides. The all-court game of Toulouse’s Antoine Dupont was demonstrated in emphatic terms in his 80-metre try against Clermont and his control from the base is key. Ulster’s John Cooney, who has suffered a slight dip in form and was benched for Alby Mathewson in the PRO14 final, is a different style of player, with a passing game that’s almost at All Black level, fused with intelligent sniping that keeps back-rows honest. It would be a big call for Dan McFarland to leave Cooney out again but he will no doubt play a significant part in this match, whether as a starter or a replacement.

A battle on two fronts

The last fixture sees Northampton Saints travel to Exeter Chiefs in a game that many see only as one-way traffic. Only a week ago, in what was effectively Chiefs’ second team, they took the honours away at Franklin’s Gardens, a nightmare result that confirmed that Saints’ pre-lockdown form is just a dream of the past. Northampton, since the departure of Cobus Reinach, have been a shadow of the fearless running side we saw before lockdown, lacking continuity and direction, despite competitive and dynamic performances from their pack.

Chiefs, meanwhile, have been striding the Premiership like a colossus, fusing powerful forward play with exhilarating work from their backs. A key feature has been the ability of director of rugby Rob Baxter to create a framework of defined style that allows him to rotate an incredible depth of talent. Like Saints, their pack provides immense scoring power with their forwards able to hurt sides with try scoring ability from one to eight.

However, Northampton, now lying a modest seventh in the Premiership, like Saracens, have little to play for this season and their entire focus is on European honours, whilst Chiefs are fighting a battle on two fronts, stretching even their rich resources. We do expect to see a much more competitive performance from Saints, but nobody in English rugby right now can see anything other than a convincing Exeter victory.

Key match-up: With George Kruis in Japan, there’s a lock berth available for England and in Chiefs’ Jonny Hill and Saints’ David Ribbans we see two dynamic, try-scoring second-rowers go head-to-head in a play-off for their country’s Elite Player Squad (EPS). Hill’s lineout work is peerless in the Premiership, whilst Ribbans’ mobility and abrasion has seen him cross the whitewash five times this season.

by James While

 

Exeter Chiefs