Expert Witness: Winterbottom on the Six Nations
Expert Witness returns ahead of the first round of the Six Nations and welcomes former England and British and Irish Lions flanker Peter Winterbottom.
The Sick Nations
The marketing men will tell that the game is in rude health right now, but with Wales naming a side shorn of 10 of their regular starters, England without a similar number and with the absence of a number of key Irish players, the same cannot be said of the participants themselves.
Rarely has such a litany of absenteeism been a precursor to a Six Nations weekend, and Winterbottom is rightly concerned about the workload being placed on players and believes that the unrealistic demands of the global season has created havoc.
“I think I read a statistic that there are in total 42 players unavailable for the first round, which is quite incredible,” he commented.
“Sport has always been about peaking at the right time. With the financial demands and calendar demands, players are becoming under constant pressure to perform at that peak for the entire season.
“It’s wholly unrealistic and my biggest concern is how physical injury is also affecting mental health.
“Take Billy Vunipola as an example; how is he keeping positive, after working so hard to come back only for a freak of a knock to put him out for yet another key tournament? Sure, there’s an element of bad luck in his case, but what will kill him mentally is the light that he saw at the end of the tunnel a few weeks back has been totally extinguished.
“I well recall my series of injuries in the late ’80s which, together with form, led to me missing out on the ’89 Lions. But in retrospect, I needed some down time and missing that tour allowed me to get myself right for another four years of top flight rugby thereafter. It allowed me to recalibrate and to set realistic playing goals; a breathing space, if you like.
“Great sides need players challenging, but they also have a core of maybe 75% of a first choice side that ‘picks themselves’. The key is to blend those core players with the form of the fringe players in a meaningful style and the injuries are not allowing some teams to do that.
“There needs to be some clear break time for the guys to recharge and recover. Time to get over niggles and space to get the mental steel back into place and enthusiasm high and I am afraid the playing demands of club and international level, together with the size of physical hits, are conspiring to overload and overwork our playing pools,” concluded Winterbottom.
The silver lining
With availability at an all-time low, team sheets are already featuring some unfamiliar names. Winterbottom believes that both coaches and players need to seize the opportunities ahead of them.
“(Warren) Gatland announced a side on Tuesday that features maybe 10 new names to the usual tried and tested.
“Much has been made of Wales’ inability at times to change tactics on the hoof and perhaps this will give Warren the chance just to change that up.
“The Scottish visit could produce one of the match-ups of the year! Scotland are looking like a fabulous side under Gregor Townsend. They’re impudent, cheeky and fearless, rather like Gregor himself,” chuckled Winterbottom.
“What they’ve already done is shown an ability to move defences around and create gaps. Their running lines and off-ball work is superb and above all, they’ve got a confidence that’s inspired by the cheek of Finn Russell at outside-half, who is a real match winner.
“You don’t rip apart defences like the All Blacks and the Wallabies without a huge amount of skill, and provided Scotland’s front five stay in the game, they’re a serious threat for any side. Indeed, if Eddie Jones’ England were putting in the performances that the Scots are, he’d be purring like a cat and so would the media!
“However, Wales may just have enough up front to overcome them, and I’m particularly excited about their new-look pacy back-row, with the outstanding Josh Navidi and Aaron Shingler together as a unit.
“The back-row battle will be key, and with John Barclay putting in the performances of his career right now, I can’t call it either way but home advantage should see Wales home in an open thriller of a match.”
When in Rome
England travel to Rome beaten only once under Jones’ reign. Many say all is well with the Chariot, but other more informed critics may point to a lack of progress of style and shape under the Australian.
Winterbottom believes that using 2018 to develop that style is key to England’s aspirations.
“The leading question here is ‘what does success look like for England in 2018?” and for me, the answer is not totally about results, but putting together a style and method that everyone subscribes to and that works.
“The results are great for England and allows that crucial ‘winning habit’ mentality to develop within the side. But if you scratch beneath the surface, is there an argument to say England need to step up another level completely if they’re to challenge successfully in 2019? I think there is.
“The two areas of concern for me are not knowing the best balance or personnel in midfield and crucially, in the back-row. At the moment, fitness prevents us fielding our best loose forwards and experimenting to find the right balance. We need to find a blend of carry, support, tight skill and ball-winning skill that will compete and right now, we’re unbalanced.
“Whilst I understand the need to play Maro Itoje at six, if a shorter line-out option at number eight is used, I feel Maro goes from being an absolutely world class lock to merely a ‘very good’ flanker when he plays in in the back-row. I suspect we’ll see Sam Simmonds and Chris Robshaw named alongside him, which does allow Simmonds’ support and carry work to come to the fore, but to me there’s still a question mark over balance and we need to get that right very quickly.
“In the backs, the same thing applies and I feel we now have to hang our hat on playing the George Ford/Owen Farrell combination to allow Farrell’s passing ability and vision to thrive.
“One interesting point of note; Italy may well see this game as their biggest chance this season and it wouldn’t surprise me if Conor O’Shea has targeted this fixture big time. He’s done a great job putting responsibility on other shoulders rather than those of the warhorse (Sergio) Parisse, and Italy are more complete under Conor.
“He’ll consider England may just be slightly internalised on their view of this game, worried about injuries and so on and there’s a chance to rain on their parade.
“Don’t think this will be a walk-over for England. They’ll win, for sure, but O’Shea is the master of surprise and I expect this to be a lot tougher battle than many judges are predicting,” noted Winterbottom.
The benchmark
For a number of seasons now, Ireland have been the most consistent side in the Northern Hemisphere, indeed the benchmark. Settled combinations have allowed tactical continuity and for many, they’re still the side to beat:
“Ireland are building on two notable platforms; their success at provincial level and some absolutely world class, settled selections in key positions. Couple that with the shrewd tactician, Joe Schmidt, and you can see why they’ve become such a tough nut to crack. If you go back to my opening remark about having a core of 75% of your side picking themselves, Ireland are in precisely this position and they’re thriving as a result.
“France, well it’s all change yet again, isn’t it?” he quipped.
“What is quite remarkable is every season we discuss France and the issues are absolutely clear, yet nothing appears to change. The physical level in the Top 14 is incredible, for sure, but there is a lack of athletic quick forwards in the league, coupled with many overseas imports.
“This, together with a lack of credible options at 10, continually become the talking points about France. Good sides have half-backs that run the game together, but in France the predominant use of the scrum-half as the game general means that virtually every attacking thought is coming from a first play of that number nine, who is naturally much closer to the defensive line than the 10 is.
“In short, this makes defending a slightly easier task as you’ve a clear view on the points of attack.
“I read the coaching appointments with interest. I think a key man there may be the former French flanker Julien Bonnaire, a notable intellect on the game both technically and in terms of fitness and conditioning. He’s not a typical Frenchman and is known throughout Clermont as the ‘professor of rugby.’ I feel his freshness and approach may assist France greatly, and it’s without doubt they’ll need his intellect if they’re to get close to beating Ireland.
“In closing, I do feel this year will just endorse what we’ve seen in previous recent seasons in terms of pecking order. The one side I think will climb up the table is Scotland, who have been exceptional thus far.
“It is a season to cement style and thinking before the challenges of 2019 and I believe it’ll be pivotal for all concerned.”
We thank Peter for his time and Expert Witness will return next week with former Wales number eight Michael Owen.
Peter Winterbottom is regarded by many as one of rugby’s greatest flankers. A tearaway openside with 58 England caps and 7 Lions Tests, he toured New Zealand in both 1983 and 1993, gaining a Man of the Match award in the Lions’ win in 1993. During the 1983 series, Winterbottom was voted one of New Zealand’s 5 Players of the Year.
by James While