Expert Witness: Roll on 2029

It seems strange that, after 240 minutes of inspired rugby, committed warfare and the odd controversy here and there, that New Zealand and the British and Irish Lions are still even in every respect of the game.

Slim Pickings

The 2017 Tour was one of real hope for the visitors and hosts alike, the anticipation being that here are the two best sides on the planet about to engage in an era-defining series. And that’s exactly what was delivered; a series of small margins, of meagre advantage and of the slimmest gains.

At the start of the tour, form and results were patchy, with the Lions side seemingly unable to decide on a pattern and style of play. The loss against the Blues underlined the Lions lack of direction and at that moment it became clear that the traditional route one style favoured by Warren Gatland wasn’t going to win many games against the best New Zealand have to offer.

Our first Expert Witness, Nick Evans, highlighted a number of key areas that would prove to blight the Lions’ fortunes in the first Test, citing the breakdown as a key area of improvement for the visitors:

"Let’s take the first 20 minutes against Auckland; a period of huge dominance for the Lions. They battered and muscled their way to the try line but each time couldn’t get over. They sought to use contact and power to bosh their way over but the Blues were so much lower in the contact  area and so quick off the defensive line that the big Lions carriers were being hammered back. I can’t emphasise how big the gulf was in the height of the sides at contact. The Blues can’t be shifted when that low, whereas the Lions were going in with high heads and shoulders. Do that against the All Blacks and they’ll take the ball off you all day."

Sage words from Evans, as New Zealand proved the accuracy his words with a monstrous display of gain line rugby in the first Test and despite the Lions’ ability to cross the All Blacks’ try line, the 30-15 scorecard was a blueprint of his predictions, a shattering blow for the visitors.

It has also been clear up until that Auckland Test, that Gatland would favour a big midfield, looking to attack in powerful straight lines. Despite Ben Teo’s neutering of Sonny Bill Williams and acknowledging the power of the All Black defence in contact, Gatland made a move of rare daring, when he changed tactics completely, and opted to use two receivers, fly-halves Owen Farrell and Jonathan Sexton, knowing that in order the beat the All Blacks defence itself was not enough.

Crucially, he recalled his favourite General, Sam Warburton to slow ball and to offer greater physicality at contact, and started the mercurial Maro Itoje in the engine room to again increase the dynamics around contact.

Seeing Red

To denude the effect of the sending off of Williams is pure delusion. It had a quantum effect on the match.

The arguments about would the Lions have won are not without that crucial turning moment are moot in extreme, but setting the card aside, the Lions upped their game in a way few thought possible.

Key to this was the performances of Itoje and Warburton at the breakdown. In Test One, the Kiwis had adopted a technique of transferring the ball to a supporting carrier at the moment they took contact at the ruck. This transfer prevented the Lions lining the tackle up from the position of maximum power- i.e. head on, as the player was running at an angle to the tackler. A tackle from the side offers nowhere near the stopping power of the head on hit, and thus, the NZ carriers were able to drive through those oblique tackles, allowing them to ‘post length’ at the ensuing ruck.

Warburton and Itoje worked as a pair, charged to hit the tackle or ruck full on before that pop pass could be made. The sheer power of both became evident as, instead of riding the hit, the All Blacks found themselves behind the gainline time and time again, Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett being forced to execute exits and passes whilst on the back foot.

The sheer number of times we heard Jerome Garces bellowing out "Hands off six, roll away red six" showed just what a nuisance the Lions captain was and how far he pushed the letter of the laws in trying to control that contact area and his presence was influential.

New Zealand didn’t make it easy for themselves when they yanked off the one player that would have counteracted Warburton, the behemoth power of Jerome Kaino – shorn of the big man, the Kiwis lost ground at ruck, scrum and lineout; couple with the inability to go around the Lions due to the number mismatch, the resulting Lions win, although close, always seemed a distinct possibility.

The Tidal Wave

Two of our Experts this series, Peter Winterbottom and Rob Andrew, had found themselves in precisely the same situation with the Lions back in 1993; one all, one Test to play.

Neither were under any illusion as the magnitude of the task and the memories of that fateful day 24 years ago has lived long in both of their memories:

"After winning the second test to level the series, we didn’t expect was the backlash in the Kiwi media and within the general public leading up to the deciding Test. I believe questions were even asked in the New Zealand Parliament, which shows just what a measure of the national identity rugby is on these amazing islands," explained Winterbottom.

"And, despite us doing everything we could up to the Third Test, that backlash continued from the All Blacks themselves and they went up another 30 percent in terms of intensity and power. It was astonishing; we felt we’d improved significantly up to that match and really fancied it, but no-one would have lived with New Zealand that day and we could not believe how far they pushed up their performance levels. They were men possessed and utterly compelling, and it really brought home to us that in fact we were not playing against XV, but against every man, woman and child in the country," concluded the Lions flanker.

Andrew concurred adding: "We managed to sneak ahead after ten minutes but thereafter, it was like trying to stop a black tidal wave and we were swept away.

"That’s exactly what the Lions will face on Saturday, and more."

The black tidal wave came, irresistible to many, but somehow, in 20 breathless opening minutes, the Lions repelled their foes and held on to a memorable draw, against the odds, both teams setting new standards of physical and skilled rugby.

The Final Analysis

When one looks back at the eight weeks, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune were fickle in the extreme.

Going into the second Test, had they have lost, the Lions would have been consigned to the scrap heap, written off as the worst touring side since 1966. But this team were made of more than that and the turnaround was substantive, based upon understanding how to beat the best team in the world and about the need to play for the honour of the Lions.

Most pleasing from the tour was Gatland’s ability to change tactics and adapt strategy in the face of adversity, something he’s been roundly criticised for not being able to do in recent times.

Was it a chance blown? Perhaps in the third Test a settled Lions side versus a disrupted All Black backline may feel slight disappointment in the result, but judged as a tour, the players should celebrate their contribution to the most amazing of series.

Best of all, the Lions leave New Zealand with the reputation of Northern Hemisphere rugby intact, and the respect of the Kiwi public, from children to seasoned All Blacks, and that respect isn’t earned lightly.

Like the very best cliff-hanger novels, this one had a cast of quality, a plot of rare daring, subplots that twisted and turned and changed perceptions, and in the final chapter, left the watcher in suspense, not knowing a clear outcome until the next instalment, hanging on the very last words for the conclusion and sequel.

That sequel, sadly, isn’t due to hit our bookshelves until 2029 but one thing you can be sure of, many will be re-reading this story with excitement and anticipation, eager to see the rematch in 12 years’ time.

Expert Witness would like to thank again Nick Evans, Shane Byrne, Peter Winterbottom, Michael Owen, Rob Andrew and Dave Loveridge for their time and thoughts in preparing these columns during the Lions series.

James While, a freelance journalist, is the creator and writer of Expert Witness. Read James on Planet Rugby and also in the Cricketer Magazine.