Expert Witness: Rob Andrew says pressure on England
With a pivotal weekend ahead, Expert Witness welcomes back former England fly-half Rob Andrew to examine the prospects as the Six Nations enters Round 4.
On the road
With Ireland entertaining Scotland and England travelling to France, the big talking point of the weekend is who can win on the road? Andrew believes it’s time Scotland won away from the comfort of Murrayfield:
“This is a belter of a game, isn’t it?” he remarked.
“Scotland, with John Barclay inspirational as a leader and player, were superb against England. The attention to detail of Gregor Townsend blew England away.
“Their ability to attack ruck ball accurately won them that match. They targeted the third or fourth breakdown, where England had fewer big carriers available, one man hitting the ball carrier, second man in clamping on the ball in the tackle.
“Against Ireland, it’s maybe slightly more complex as both sides ruck superbly; Ireland have, alongside Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett, the most settled and most effective half-back pairing in the world. Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton are masters of controlling a game and keeping their sides moving forward, and both play a tight game and a loose game with equal ability.
“Ireland play with great structure for four or five phases and then will look to inject the runners at pace, using switch moves with the blindside wing in the 13 channel at pace.
“The key is how Scotland match up for the first 50 minutes. They need to stay in touch, matching Sexton’s ability to keep the scoreboard ticking. As against England, be patient and do the hard work up front to be able to play a more broken game later on.
“If Ireland do start to push the pace, then they become susceptible to the contact turnover; Scotland have some of the best broken field runners in the Championship and the best attack ball is from that turnover.
“It’s a massive challenge for them; winning on the road away from the 16th man that is Murrayfield. I expect Ireland, who are such a world class well-oiled machine to be too powerful up front, but, although I call an Irish win, if the Scots stay in touch, the final 30 minutes could be very exciting,” explained Andrew.
Fast Eddie
Some sages have called out England for a number of games now for their lack of balance in selection and their inability to react to change on the pitch. These thoughts came home to roost in the last round and Andrew believes Eddie Jones is now facing the most challenging fortnight of his England career:
“There’s a few that consider that this team has lost its way a bit. I go right back to Dublin last year and I feel that game rocked England’s self-belief to the core.
“It’s very difficult to judge the games since; even in the 30-3 win versus Australia England were unconvincing. Against Wales, we could have lost to a side with an injury profile from hell, with ten untried Welsh players on the pitch, and against Scotland, well it all came home to roost as Scotland identified and exploited all of the weaknesses of imbalance that we feared.
“We look flat, disinterested and ponderous. Maro Itoje is almost a metaphor for this; huge energy and presence last year and now, he looks like his battery is flat and he’s struggling for form.
“Something is not right and England face two back-to-back fixtures of enormity and if things go wrong, we could be ending the season with three losses on the bounce.
“In times like this, you can tell a lot from a head coaches selection and how he reacts to the situation. Clive Woodward lost three Grand Slam deciders before they got it right in 2003 and those losses informed his selections thereafter,” noted Andrew.
“One of the conundrums, especially with the imbalance of the juggernaut back-row, is that without Billy Vunipola, a unique player, England are still trying to play a Billy-based game but without the focal power of his devastating carrying. We can’t replicate that without him and trying to compensate has become a millstone for selection and performance.
“I would add that picking players outside of their position at international level rarely produces a good outcome. In the Premiership, you can get away with one or two tweaks, but step up a level, and that extra second of adjustment time evaporates. The game is quicker and quality attacks will exploit that.
“My over-riding thoughts are that England are missing polish and pace. We lack energy and look almost overtrained, to the point that leadership is lacking and there’s a reversion to very ponderous structure under pressure. 18 months out from the World Cup, we’re no clearer in our selections than when Eddie started and we need to use that time wisely.
“What of France? Well, Thomas Lombard is previewing them tomorrow on Expert Witness, so I won’t steal his thunder, but in short, whilst the usual structural issues persist, there’s an improvement in their technical play around the contact area and set-piece.
“They’ll be relishing this game, certain underdogs, and they’ll want to pressure England to reverting to that tight ponderous slugfest. The Top 14 is based upon big units, big power and slow arm-wrestles.
“If England go back to that stuttering pod based driving game, France will stay in the game and compete.
“Only if England take the game to a new level of pace, will France be stretched. But my concern is England are driving everywhere in second gear and they need to get to fifth. Whether they can do that, and whether Eddie can pick a side that injects pace and enthusiasm, is a moot point and the game will hinge on precisely this,” concluded the former Lions fly-half.
Nothing to lose
As the Championship has progressed, Wales have quietly used their horrendous injury profile to develop their depth. Andrew believes that despite a few hiccups, they will be quite happy about how their season has been used:
“This was almost a write-off season from day one for Wales,” he noted.
“With something like 15 players unavailable at the start, there’s been no expectation, but the new players have stood up magnificently and some real gems of talent have been unearthed, exposed and developed, so from that perspective, they’ll be entirely happy.
“Up until this season, we’ve often questioned the strength in depth and then used this argument to vindicate why Wales tended to revert to ‘Warrenball”. What’s incredibly refreshing is the new guys have kicked on the team development itself and the Welsh style is now a lot more three dimensional than perhaps a couple of seasons ago.
“Gareth Anscombe, Josh Navidi and the outstanding Aaron Shingler are incredible assets for any team and will enhance the depth. But the bonus is the expansive style those players have added to the undoubted excellence of previous seasons.
“Going into the World Cup, you’ll look at this team and think ‘wow, there’s real quality in this squad’ and I expect Wales to have fun and express themselves against a stuttering Italy.
“In respect of the Azzurri, I confess to being less impressed than some others in respect of what they’re trying to achieve. Italy always had a spine of tough players, Castro, Bortolami, Persico and co. As much as people are saying it’s about style and long-term, that spine has gone and frankly they look in worse shape now than in seasons gone by.
“I don’t see how or where that one win can come from or who they can turn over. That teak-toughness seems to have gone, and even if there’s an ambition to run and create in the backs, the losses they’re experiencing aren’t doing the game profile any favours in Italy.
“In short, I feel they could have a very bad day at the office in Cardiff, where Wales will play pacy rugby from the first minute. It could be very messy for Italy and I see nothing but a convincing Welsh win,” concluded Andrew.
We thank Rob once again for his time on Expert Witness. We will be back tomorrow with an exclusive interview with former French wing and CanalSport commentator, Thomas Lombard with his views on France and Le Crunch.
Rob Andrew MBE was a world-class fly half in the colours of England and the British and Irish Lions. He won 71 caps for England and five for the Lions, for whom he masterminded a series win in Australia in 1989. After leaving the RFU in 2016, Andrew, who has scored a first class century at Trent Bridge, moved sports in 2017 and is now the CEO at Sussex County Cricket Club.
by James While