Expert Witness: Michael Owen previews England v Wales

Colin Newboult
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As the Six Nations heads into a curtailed weekend, Expert Witness welcomes back former Wales skipper Michael Owen to preview the events ahead.

Simple things

England v Wales is arguably the most anticipated Test match in the calendar. With England starting to find their pre-final form and Wales struggling for their new identity under Wayne Pivac, this game is always almost impossible to call. Owen believes it all boils down to who gets the basics right.

“There’s been a lot of stuff in the press about how Wales are trying to adapt to new systems and tactics under Pivac, but I am not so sure I buy that,” he said.

“The press are all too keen to define teams by some form of style, forgetting that the most important style is that of pure adaptability. That revolves around skill execution and decision-making, and by decision-making I mean micro decisions from prop to full-back for the entire 80 minutes.

“If you break any game plan down into simple components they are 1) Kicking 2) Defence 3) Set-piece 4) Breakdown 5) Culture 6) Skills and handling.

“Under Warren Gatland, we saw a focus on getting the winning culture right and then being able to execute any of the other five options to suit the match situation. The winning culture allows you to identify that on-pitch decision moment and then to execute the right solution to get the team over the line.

“Since Pivac arrived, we simply haven’t quite executed as well or been quite as decisive as before. There’s no binary answer for why this is. Indeed, a bigger truth is that there’s very little to choose between the top five sides in the competition so it all boils down to who is able to complete best under pressure moments. Against Ireland, Wales lost because they failed to execute. Against France, it was the same thing. It’s all about those match turning 14-point moments where one mistake in delivering a pass, touching down a try or whatever will prove crucial and turn a try for you into seven points for them.

“If you look at small things, we’re missing some big influencers on our game. Josh Navidi’s ability to hold the gain line is priceless and we’ve not quite had the back-row balance without him. Any side would miss a genuine great of the game such as Jonathan Davies and, while his days are numbered, his ability to execute the right attacking option in midfield and to hold defences to create space for others is priceless. Our back three is a moving feast due to injury too; the moment we hear Liam Williams is likely to be back, we lose a winger and so on. It’s very disruptive to a side that’s used to being settled.

“Against France, the side had little time under the new management and we gave them far too many easy outs from those pivotal points of the game. We failed to control the breakdown and conceded far too many turnovers, something that underlines the absence of Navidi’s influence around the contact area.

“But in fairness, France right now are executing those crucial plays better than anyone else. They’ve really upped their game on the five points I mentioned above. And the sixth? Well, they’ve used the basis of a champion U20 side and a brilliant defence coach and head coach to develop that winning and decision culture. They’re winning the key moments more often than not and that’s why they’re on top of the table.

“I think Wales are a little frustrated with ourselves at the moment. If there’s one player that I won’t have a bad word said about, it’s Dan Biggar. He epitomises the game itself and I’ll admit he’s becoming a little too obviously disappointed with aspects of execution on the pitch, but he is the barometer of Welsh performance; a man that gives his heart and soul to his team. I understand he’s 50/50 for Saturday and I hope he comes through because we’ll need his variety of play and commitment when we’re playing away at Twickenham,” noted Owen.

England’s upslope

“I think that England, although beaten well in Paris, have been a little unfairly criticised. Go back to my points about winning the big moments. Against France, the home side in a pressure cooker atmosphere, won those titanic clashes of the first 25 minutes and put enough points on the board to close the game out. England statistically won the other 55 minutes but, by then, the ‘big moment’ damage had been done.

“But when England play well, they’re almost impossible to contain because of the variety in attack point that they employ. As discussed last week on Expert Witness, against Ireland they used two distinct attacking pods – a three man kick pod (Daly, Farrell and Ford) with a three man chase pod (Joseph, May and Tuilagi). In the first 20, they hit Ireland from every point of the pitch and, despite Ireland conceding two easy tries, the scores were results of that ‘big moment’ pressure.

“The selections of Eddie Jones, pilloried against France, somehow came good in the last two rounds. The thing I believe he’s trying to do is get his best decision-makers into positions where they can make the biggest impact. It might not be as per the coaching manual, but he’s attempting to get his best assets on the pitch for the longest period of time.

“When you have to call the result of this match form means nothing, that I can assure you!” chuckled the Welshman.

“When you asked me about the key match-ups, it’s the forward battle, nothing more refined than that! Wales, with Dillon Lewis improving all the time, need to hold the English set-piece then meet fire with fire at contact. It’ll be a hugely intense game, one defined by two or three critical moments and whoever manages those will win the game. I’m going to call it 22-20 to Wales, which goes against home advantage and form, but I reckon the extra time that Pivac has had in the two-week break will be the difference that sees us home.”

Scotland turnaround

“When we discussed big moments earlier, nobody needs reminding of this more than Gregor Townsend and his men.

“Time and time again this season, poor execution has been their enemy. Two results could have been very different had the Scots scored the points on offer and we could today be talking about a Grand Slam if luck and skill completion had gone their way.

“If you unpack what they’re doing, they’re very competitive in the set-piece, with Rory Sutherland putting in some big shifts in the tournament already. They’re very strong around the breakdown, with Hamish Watson pound-for-pound one of the best scrappers around and they have control at half-back.

“France, on the other hand, have found a magician and a magician’s assistant at half-back, with Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack. Their pack is being led magnificently by the athletic and skilled Charles Ollivon, and their intensity is now for 80 minutes, rather than the sporadic 20 here and there of their predecessors,” said an admiring Owen.

“I’ve loved watching Les Bleus this season and some other big teams must be kicking themselves that they’ve missed out on the coaching talents of Shaun Edwards once again. His influence is there for all to see in the French defence. But Scotland too have recruited coaches wisely, with Pieter de Villiers making a massive impact on their scrum. It might again go against form, but I’m calling the Scots to take this one by a score.”

We thank Michael once again for his time on Expert Witness.

Michael Owen was a rangy, ball handling number eight for the British & Irish Lions and Wales. Noted for his keen rugby intellect, he played 41 times for Wales, leading them to a Grand Slam in 2005 and captained the British & Irish Lions versus Argentina in 2005 before a serious knee injury curtailed his impressive career at the age of 29.

by James While

 

England