Expert Witness: Michael Owen ahead of second Test

As history repeats itself with the British and Irish Lions making substantial changes for the second Test in order to save a series, former Welsh number eight Michael Owen debuts on Expert Witness to preview the near impossible; a Test win against the mighty All Blacks.

As the Lions approach the second Test one nil down and sporting a mediocre record in the provincial matches, it’s a truism to say that should they lose the next two matches, they will go down, alongside the 1966 team, as the worst Lions touring party in the last 100 years. Paradoxically, should they win, they will be hailed as one of the greatest sides in British and Irish Lions history.

Breaking down the breakdown

Owen is in a unique position to comment on this series; a protégé of Steve Hansen’s time with Wales, a Lions Test skipper versus Argentina in 2005 and a player noted for creativity and ball skill, his appreciation of test rugby runs deep.

Having experienced a rampant New Zealand first hand, he believes that all is not yet lost:

“When you look at the first Test, there’s a lot of good moments to take forward. We’ve shown we can match them in a few areas; certainly the set piece, an ability to break their defence down and score and the rolling maul showed cause for cautious optimism.

“However, Test rugby is about absolute honesty and if you’re being entirely candid, we were way off the pace in terms of physicality at the breakdown, speed of ruck and defensive nous in contact, all areas where matches are won and lost,” observed Owen.

“Another aspect of real concern is the speed of movement, and also crucially speed of thought at ruck time. New Zealand may not be entirely legal at times in terms of where they enter the ruck, but it is executed with such speed, such low body position and such dynamism that they are seriously dominating this battle.

“I don’t believe that we created one turnover at ruck time last weekend, which shows how hard the Kiwis bossed this battle.

“Warren Gatland has made some personnel changes that are entirely motivated by changing this statistic; Sam Warburton will toil away over the ball whilst Maro Itoje is incredibly dynamic around the contact area, with a very low and aggressive front foot style of tackle and jackal,” concluded the Lion.

Space Men

“Allied to this physicality, I must single out the brilliance of the handling of the Kiwi ball carriers in the forwards. Look closely at how they move the point of attack, with superb hands, to create space and prevent the Lions defence getting a clean and powerful line of sight into the tackle.

“In simple terms, they will move the ball at very close quarters a metre to a colleague almost at the point of collision. This prevents the tackler from executing a dynamic head on hit that stops the carrier dead.

“It creates a situation where the tackle becomes an oblique affair, the defender coming in at a slight angle, thus allowing the carrier to use a powerful leg drive to gain that crucial metre of momentum through the tackle at the gain line.

“It is so obvious yet so effective. It relies upon intuition, incredible ball handling ability from the props to the back row, and above all, a belief in one’s ability to execute under pressure and at huge speed,” admired Owen.

“Another point to note; when your attack is that good, you’re tiring defenders out very early in the game. When you’re attacking fatigued defences, there’s so much more space and little margins, half a second here and there, mount up to create a lot of options and a lot of space.

“It goes without saying that when your opponents get the ball, the fatigue levels also hinder pace in attack. You combine these micro-moments together and that’s where the All Blacks are a considerable distance ahead of anyone else in rugby right now.

“A case in point was Aaron Smith’s tap and go for try on Saturday. His speed of thought and fleetness of foot tore apart a team that were expecting a minute’s break, a little breather, whilst Barrett kicked a penalty.

“It was a hammer blow to the Lions and showed clearly the difference in pace of play and thought between the two sides,” concluded the Welshman.

Midfield Generals

Warren Gatland was expected to make changes in the forward pack and his shuffles were entirely predictable, rewarding the outstanding Courtney Lawes and CJ Stander with impact-driven bench spots, whilst replacing out-of-form Saracen for in-form Saracen as Itoje replaces George Kruis in the second row.

Few watchers of Warrenball expected to see a midfield combination of two creative distributors in the 10/12 channel, but Owen is excited to see Gatland roll the dice in this fashion:

“Gatland has always hung his hat on a powerful inside centre in the Jamie Roberts/Ben Te’o mould,” he said.

“This is a brave call in the sense the Lions need to be bold in attack and are not going to win through absorbing pressure in the 12 channel, despite Te’o’s excellence in closing down Sonny Bill Williams last week. However, given the fact that Owen Farrell and Johnny Sexton have played precisely 42 minutes together in this configuration on tour, I don’t believe it’s been part of the plan, despite both players gelling well together when they’ve had that opportunity.

“Many criticise Warren for having no plan B and I feel this is an exciting move and one aimed at allowing the skills of the two fly-halves to move the point of attack at pace with better distribution and more ball movement,” noted an optimistic Owen.

The Hansen Factor

Owen enjoyed two Welsh seasons with Steve Hansen as part of the coaching team. Many see him as some form of magician but Owen believes that humour, honesty and work ethic are at the heart of Hansen’s style:

“I have the utmost respect and admiration for Steve and his rugby intellect,” declared Owen.

“When he joined Wales, he was keen to develop an environment that allowed attacking rugby to flourish. He catalysed a big change in personnel and got young, talented ball players into the team to deliver a style based upon speed, handling and above all, honesty.

“Rob Andrew commented in depth last year on Expert Witness in respect of the advantages of decision or situational based coaching over drill based coaching. Short, sharp decision and skill led sessions created in match based environments are at the heart of the All Black training culture and that’s precisely the mantra Steve subscribes to,” explained Owen.

“He coaches with a direct style and no less sense of humour. One notable quality was his calling out a player for mistakes in private in a forceful manner. We were all parts of a team, not there for individualism, but there as a collective and letting down our teammates through poor decision making or execution was not going to be tolerated.

“He is also incredibly concise in his approach; you are told precisely the levels and styles required, but empowered to make your own decisions in how to deliver.

“Steve really opened my eyes up to how top rugby could be played and I am truthful in saying I’ve the highest respect for his abilities and persona.”

Putting the marker down

In a time of intense media scrutiny and instant news, this British and Irish Lions tour has been scrutinised like no other. It is a cliché to ask what a win means to the party but Owen is pragmatic about both the chances of the Lions and the potential outcomes, whether they win, lose or draw:

“New Zealand showed the benchmark on Saturday,” he added.

“It’s pretty clear what’s needed to be done in order to overcome them, but, as with all these things, the Lions must project past that benchmark and factor in another 20 percent of improvement from the All Blacks if they wish to defeat them.

“We know they’re beatable and given just a little more luck and better execution after half-time last weekend, we may have been a little closer.

“No inspirational one-off speech will change the fortunes of the guys on tour; that’s stuff for DVD sales and isn’t a fair reflection. Instead this is about how the lads will react and develop their OWN winning culture within the party.

“This weekend the Lions need to be standing up from 1 to 23 and digging deeper than ever before in their careers. They know what has to be done and if they need to be told this at this juncture in their rugby lives they shouldn’t be starting the test match,” noted Owen.

“However, in closing, if those guys lose yet have given their best, literally drained the tank, then no-one can criticise.

“If they look back and know they’ve left something out there, or self-inflicted a defeat through naivety or poor execution, the self-criticism and public backlash will be huge.

“If they do the unthinkable and win, the series is alive and crucially, the New Zealand players and public will embrace and respect the class of 2017.

“I believe it’s possible, but it will rely on 23 performances of a lifetime to pull it off.”

We thank Michael for his detailed insight and time. Expert Witness will return next week with the thoughts of the last winning Lions fly-half in New Zealand, England’s Rob Andrew.

Michael was speaking to James While

Michael Owen was a rangy, ball handling number eight for the British Lions and Wales. Noted for his keen rugby intellect, he played 41 times for Wales and captained the British and Irish Lions versus Argentina in 2005 before a serious knee injury curtailed his impressive  career at the age of 29.

Michael is playing in the Worldwide Currencies Cup match at Allianz Park on Friday, June 30 (8.15pm). The all-star game is supporting the RPA’s Restart Rugby charity and the #LiftTheWeight mental health awareness campaign. The former Wales and British & Irish Lions forward will be joined by a cast of stars including Iain Balshaw, Mark Cueto, John Smit, Ugo Monye and Matt Stevens. Tickets from www.sevensandthecity.com