Expert Witness: Lewis Moody previews the semi-finals

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With the much anticipated semi-finals of the Rugby World Cup upon us, we welcome back former England skipper and World Cup winner, Lewis Moody.

England v New Zealand

Firstly, I want to set one thing straight: as much as people want to talk up the clash, calling this match the ‘final’, as many have done, is completely wrong and is disrespectful to South Africa and Wales, who themselves are incredibly worthy of a World Cup win.

Both England and the All Blacks were outstanding last weekend; New Zealand simply overpowered Ireland and Aaron Smith produced a masterful display of pacey passing from the base. As we discussed last week, England’s fortunes were inspired by the performance of the ‘Kamikaze Kids’ – their flankers Tom Curry and Sam Underhill – and we mustn’t underestimate the precision shown by all in England’s scoring and incursions.

I saw a stat that suggested Australia, after 22 minutes, had had 73% possession and 78% territory, yet were 17 points down. That screams ‘efficiency’ in attack, something I believe will be the key to any chance England have of beating the world champions.

Any side wishing to challenge New Zealand need to focus on three key points:

1) Owning the scoreboard. By this I mean taking every point on offer, whether a penalty, a drop goal or whatever. In a game that’s likely to be of the finest margins, little moments will matter and details like Elliot Daly’s long-range kicking can prove vital in tussles like this.

2) Intensity. New Zealand play high tempo, error-free rugby for 80 minutes. As harsh as this will sound, this means England need to match that ambition: no errors, total accuracy and total precision for the full period. Anything less will result in a loss.

3) Intellect. We saw England use a game plan that basically gave Australia the ball and said ‘come at us’. To adopt a kicking strategy like this against the Kiwi back three that includes Beauden Barrett could prove suicidal. Kicks need to be contestable or need to ‘find grass’. It’s interesting George Ford has been recalled and I suspect England will still kick but shorter and with greater use of their flying wings to contest the aerial battle.

If you look at how Ben Stokes constructed his masterful innings at Headingley this year, it was a knock based upon no fear of failure and of playing exactly the moment, nothing before the moment and nothing ahead of the moment. Play and miss, don’t worry, you’re still batting. Mishit? No problems, I’m still here and I will stick to the process and play each ball as a one-off moment. If England can learn from Ben’s incredible mental toughness and self-belief in that knock, they’ll have a sniff of a win.

What can I say about this All Black side? I think, over my years doing this column, I have officially run out of superlatives to describe their all-round brilliance. From one to 23 they are world-class, with exceptional talent in the spine of the team, 2, 8, 9, 10, 15, where every single man is at the top of their craft. Are they the side they were four years ago? Well that’s a massive question and, if I’m honest, I don’t think they have quite the class and experience they did in 2015.

Neither team has played each other regularly in ages – I think one meeting in five years – which is disappointing. But both come into this tussle peaking, and at the top of their game. It’s so hard to call and I really want to say England, but head rules heart and the pragmatist in me says All Blacks by two scores.

Key battle: Kieran Read v Billy Vunipola. Both are national talismen and both, by their exalted standards, have been quiet in the tournament. However, Read went up a notch against Ireland and some of his offloading was simply magnificent. Vunipola still looks a little leg weary, but his ability to tie three men up in contact to release others outside him will be crucial if England are to overcome the might of the All Blacks.

South Africa v Wales

This is a game of power. South Africa’s sheer physicality versus Wales’ exceptional defence means we’re going to see collisions of galactic proportions and it’s one I’m relishing.

I was chatting to Jamie Roberts on my podcast on Wednesday and he pointed out that the teams are very evenly matched and the game will turn on one or two single events. Innovation and risk are words some coaches fear, but in this clash Wales need to be prepared to lose the game via risk in order to win it.

By that I mean using their pace at nine, their boot at 10 and using the brilliance of their back three, in particular George North and Liam Williams. It’s an interesting point, but right wings such as North tend to see less of the ball in games than left wings. This is purely down to the fact right footed players prefer right to left kicks and players generally pass better that way too. This means the left flank gets around 15% more action than the right.

The amazing Cheslin Kolbe is out of the game, a blow for both the fans and the Springboks themselves. This gives the Welsh wings even more reason to get involved and to go looking for the ball, both off the pass and in the aerial challenge. The way Dan Biggar uses his boot to bring these lads into the game will prove telling.

South Africa will want to see more from their talented midfield in terms of offloads and passing. The propensity of their centres to seek contact will kill off the lesser nations, but against the best, you need to keep the ball alive via offload and continuity.

Damian de Allende is an exceptional centre, but his distribution isn’t quite yet Test standard and the Boks will want more from his hands. Willie le Roux has also been quiet – and he gets obviously rattled when things don’t go his way. At his best, Le Roux loves an incursion into the 13 channel and we’ll see waves of dummy runners looking to take ball into contact, whilst the half-backs work behind those runners to engineer Le Roux around the corner of contact and at pace, into those midfield channels.

Again this is a very tough game to call and I’m going to say South Africa to edge it. However, we must also consider the Alun Wyn Jones and Warren Gatland factor; both men are close to the end of their journey but both share the priceless quality of being totally bloody minded. Whilst I tip the Boks, I still believe the sheer willpower of these two old-stagers might just get Wales over the line.

Key battle: Faf de Klerk v Gareth Davies. Both half-backs are in blistering form. It’s the all-round game management of De Klerk versus the pace and X-factor of Davies. Both players want to inject speed and, if they get quick ball, their ability to stretch defences is peerless. It’ll be a crucial battle and whoever makes the best use of the ball the forwards provide is likely to emerge on top.

We thank Lewis for his time and he will be back for next week to preview the final itself.

Lewis Moody MBE, a tearaway flanker, played 71 times for England and appeared in one Test for the British and Irish Lions. He was a key member of the England’s World Cup winning side in 2003 and skippered England in the 2011 tournament. He will forever be remembered for winning the lineout that led to ‘that drop goal’.

Listen to Lewis’ podcast, here

He now spends his free time promoting his children’s charity, The Lewis Moody Foundation, which raises funds worldwide for children suffering from brain tumours.

by James While

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