Expert Witness: Kyran Bracken on the Lions series climax
The 2021 British and Irish Lions tour to South Africa took yet another turn last weekend as the hosts struck back with power and physicality to win 27-9.
Former England skipper and a Lion in South Africa in 1997, Kyran Bracken, joins Expert Witness to look at the key talking points ahead of the weekend’s third Test decider.
Unpacking
“So far, in two Tests, we’ve seen a monumental arm wrestle,” Bracken commented.
“In the first Test, the Lions played with much greater intensity than they managed in the second, playing high tempo rugby, tiring the Springboks by keeping pace on, and it worked. In the second, it really was another ‘rumble in the jungle moment’ with two heavyweights slugging it out, but I think the way South Africa managed to control and slow down the timing of the game was absolutely crucial.
“Last week was a catalogue of issues for the Lions; some was self-inflicted – those issues of tempo and pace into the game, which was frustrated by the officials’ slowness in getting the game moving – I believe the match time was 133 minutes, a ridiculous amount of time. Others were down to very clever and intelligent rugby from the Springboks, with a huge turning point coming when they introduced three locks into the game, Lood de Jager coming on, with Franco Mostert switching to the flank.
Bracken added: “Up until that moment, the Lions had held on in the scrum and in terms of penalties, had just about achieved parity. I noticed Frans Malherbe literally pulling in the lightweight Kwagga Smith on the flank under his backside to offer support at scrum-time in the earlier stages, but when Smith was moved to eight and Mostert was behind the Bok tighthead, their scrum went up another two gears just based upon sheer physical tonnage.
“The substitution then allowed the Springboks to dismantle one of the Lions’ previous strengths, the lineout, although that wasn’t helped by a poor showing of throwing by Ken Owens when he came on.
“Whilst it was a really bad day at the office for the Lions, the fact remains, there’s very little between the two sides and it all boils down to momentum switches and set-piece dominance,” he concluded.
Changing gears
“Looking forward, the one key point that the Lions need to remember is that in terms of ‘halves of rugby’ it’s two all and all to play for. The Lions have matched and beaten the Boks once and there’s no reason why that can’t be repeated and Warren Gatland has picked a side very capable of doing that.
“It seems the most obvious thing to say, but the set-piece is absolutely vital, and Warren has gone for a club partnership in two thirds of the front-row, using Owens and Wyn Jones to start, but intelligently realising that the Lions had no impact at all from their finishers and that Mako Vunipola and Luke Cowan-Dickie are proven should things need an injection of power or the starting front-row gets in trouble.
“The lineout is a huge concern; the Boks now have five skilled options to throw to, three of those being 6’7″ or over and that trio all being world class primary options. The Lions’ lineout has been built around Maro Itoje’s speed and athleticism with Courtney Lawes supporting, but they will have their work cut out, particularly if the throwing goes awry as it did in the latter stages of last week,” mused the former England skipper.
“One of the ways the Lions can counter the perceived physical differences in both areas of the set-piece is that tempo. Get fast lineouts, quick scrums, move the Boks around the pitch and give them no reset time to recharge for another wave of power. They crave stop-start rugby with a huge emphasis on set-piece and the Lions have to box clever and cut that out at source,” Bracken noted.
“One notable point is just how hard the Lions have found it to get outside or behind the Springbok rush defence. They defend narrow, with only one at the back in Willie le Roux, but the pace with which they fire up off that defensive line means that getting speed of pass to the wider players is very hard.
“With Ali Price at nine, he’ll offer more in terms of snipe and variety from the base. He, and the forward carriers, need only to break behind the primary defence and get them into scramble defence and the width will open up due to the number of players committed in those initial phases.
“Bundee Aki too will allow a focal point in carry, sucking in first phase defenders to create gaps outside. The bonus from Aki is he also has a lot of dominant stopping power and I absolutely understand his selection,” Bracken agreed.
“The width factor is not assisted by a playing surface that’s really broken up badly during the game and is very tired. We saw divots coming out of the pitch every moment last weekend, and I think both Willie le Roux and Elliot Daly went off on speculative runs only to slip over as the turf gave way under their feet. When you’ve underfoot conditions like that, it’s no wonder that teams cut it out of the reckoning altogether and play the game in the air, as we have witnessed,” he noted.
Aerial bombs
“In the second Test, it was definitely a case of who kicks, wins,” quipped Bracken.
“I know it’s boring for those watching, but the simple truism is, it takes a lot of running effort to make 35 metres and contest the ball, but very little effort to kick and chase for 35 metres if you have aerial dominance.
“Legality and accuracy is key here; the Lions lost so much momentum from errors under the high ball on Saturday that it was untrue. The Boks kicked 24 times in the second half, and the Lions kicked 10 – so you can bet your bottom dollar you’ll see a lot more of the same on Saturday. Out of the Boks’ 24 kicks, 14 resulted in positive outcomes, so they won’t change a thing,” Bracken explained.
“However, losing Faf de Klerk is a big blow for this particular battle, although they’ve whistled up another world class scrum-half in Cobus Reinach to replace. Reinach is a superb player and his pace and individual running threat is probably greater than that of Faf, but his game management and kicking skills are much weaker, so I’ll be interested to see how he combines the South African tactics with his own points of differentiation.
“It’s no surprise that they’ve kept Mostert on the blindside flank and that again telegraphs that the Boks intend to deliver very much the same plan A that’s served them so well. The key here for the Lions is to get Tom Curry focused on creating breakdown pressure by using his over the ball skills – Curry has been OK without ever getting to the heights of wowing us and I really want to see a big performance from him.
“However, what I want to see from the Lions above all, is a proactive style emerging. A set of tactics that defines the identity of 2021, rather than a set of reactive responses to the power of South Africa. My message is make the game yours and don’t be afraid to try and create opportunities to get around the rush – create that style that will define the tour and get some tempo and pace into the game.
“Looking at in simple terms, it’s again going to be a titanic clash, but one where accuracy, discipline and simple rugby will win the game. If the Lions set-pieces holds together, then they may just have the bench firepower to change the game, but it’s a hell of a big if and I expect this one to go down to the wire,” concluded Bracken.
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