Expert Witness: Habitual winning and a predictable demise
As Scotland hope to halt Wales‘ march to a Grand Slam and England lick their wounds in Rome after a mauling in Cardiff, Expert Witness welcomes back former England fly-half Rob Andrew to discuss plans, big moments and batting collapses.
Hanging on in quiet desperation
England’s demise in Cardiff was nothing but predictable.
For many years now, followers of English sport have come to expect the missed penalty shoot-out, the batting collapse under pressure or the choke on the rugby pitch. It’s become almost ingrained within the national psyche and the saddening thing is it is now so inevitable that it’s almost become the ‘English way’.
Andrew believes that at the core of the issue there’s a failure to react and almost a need to slavishly follow predetermined plans.
“Firstly, let’s take nothing away from Wales; they were truly magnificent and the match stats of 65% territory and possession tell their own tale and Warren Gatland yet again showed his unmatched ability to prep sides for the big game,” he explained.
“However, the real issue for England is why they failed to change up their game-plan and why did they not understand what was opening up in front of them?
“When you look back to the previous Six Nations games in Dublin and at Twickenham, England executed a kicking plan to precision. However, people are overlooking that in both instances their opponents were playing without a regular Test quality full-back, and certainly not one of the immense talent of Liam Williams.
“Both France and Ireland played their wings high, leaving grass behind them; Wales saw how to counter that and dropped their 11 and 14 back to field.
“Allied to this, they played in a tight bowl of a stadium in shirt sleeve conditions where, even with the roof open, the lack of wind and cold allows sides to field kicks without the external pressure of the elements – a big consideration and one Leigh Halfpenny mentioned post-match as being a key feature of playing at Cardiff.
“When it became apparent that this plan wasn’t going to work, and there was a clear momentum shift just after half-time, England needed to react and look to find other ways to score points and they failed,” observed Andrew.
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“As someone who has moved sports now, I found it ironic watching England’s cricket in St Lucia and how, when faced with a seaming and bouncing pitch, rather than the roads in Grenada, that they continued to slavishly adopt an all guns blazing ‘tee-off’ strategy when the conditions demanded a more introspective and patient approach to run scoring. The cricketers, like their rugby colleagues faced clear evidence of changing conditions and momentum, and palpably failed to adapt in order to survive.
“It was almost a metaphor for the performance in Cardiff and I wonder if this is just pure coincidence or is there something bigger here?
“The big issue here is in knock-out conditions of World Cups, just one performance of the ilk of Cardiff or St Lucia sees you booted out of the tournament. There is no room to fail like this and absolutely no margin for error.
“What is incredibly frustrating is these are simple things to sort out – it’s a mindset change. That means there’s a bigger question about England’s mental approach. There’s no doubt the players are good enough (in both sports!) but there’s huge doubts about their thought process under pressure.”
The loudest voices
Whilst Eddie Jones appears to vacillate in the media eyes between the Messiah and Satan, there’s no doubt of his influence on the team. Is there a question that his voice has become too loud that it deafens the voices and thinking of others?
“It’s an interesting question and one that needs careful consideration,” mused Andrew.
“Whilst it’s impossible to answer conclusively, when you realise that despite the obvious need to change plans, George Ford and Dan Robson remained unused on the bench and therefore you have to question the coach’s thinking. More importantly, there’s also a trust concern here, and one wonders why Eddie hasn’t sorted out the scrum-half position as it appears Robson is there under some form of duress. Put simply, you could conclude that Eddie doesn’t see him as ‘trustworthy’ and at the moment all he appears to be is injury cover.
“I know I sound like a broken record on this one, but imagine if the drop-goal was part of England’s armoury?
“A little sortie into opposition territory in Cardiff just before or after half-time and a cheeky drop-goal would have smashed the Welsh comeback, both physically and mentally, but for reasons that escape me that plan isn’t in their locker.
“Owen Farrell has dropped precisely five goals in 205 first class games and if you compare that to Jonny Wilkinson’s 36 drops in 97 Tests you’ll see this is something really missing from their thinking,” explained Andrew, a man who scored a then world record 23 dropped goals in 76 Tests.
“So yes, Eddie’s influence on the team even in those last 20 minutes was strong and yes, perhaps he was complicit in failing to react to changing conditions,” he concluded.
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The weekend ahead
“It’s an interesting one, but when we came into this tournament there was a thinking that Ireland, England and Wales had little to separate them but that England and to a lesser extent, Ireland, had more depth in their squads and that this would be telling.
“However, as the tournament has progressed, it’s Wales that have demonstrated the quality in their squad with players like Josh Navidi and Cory Hill emerging as Test stars, whilst England and Ireland have certainly struggled to replace big name exponents like Mako Vunipola, Maro Itoje, CJ Stander and others. Not many saw that coming, but it’s a realistic assessment of affairs.
“Wales are in a great place, finding new depths of talent to augment their injury profile and will travel to Murrayfield in high spirits with the ammunition to win there,” he said.
“Ironically, Scotland are also failing to adapt to what’s in front of them. However, they’re going straight to Plan B without touching Plan A,” laughed Andrew.
“By that I mean there’s an anxiety to play deconstructed rugby from the first moment. Yes, they’ve got some incredible running talent when all are fit, but this propensity to deconstruct the game before they’ve built a platform is costing them and they need to be more patient.
“Had Scotland not lost the talents of Stuart Hogg, Ryan Wilson and Huw Jones, I’d think this a tough match to call, but Wales’ clarity of planning and habitual winning should see them over the line in a match that’s always a spectacle of running rugby,” noted Andrew.
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In Dublin, a French side that seems to define every single cliché ever written about them, will face an off-colour Ireland, who, as noted above, also have suffered from injury adjustments this season.
“There’s always a need to balance getting the best players on the pitch with getting the right players in their right positions.
“England beat Ireland using their own game-plan in Dublin (ironically, Wales did the same to England a fortnight later!) and we saw again a failure to adapt. But there’s an argument that there’s too many changed combinations in the Irish side and they need to get players like Robbie Henshaw and Sean O’Brien in their favoured roles and not shoe-horn them into the side in unfamiliar positions.
“France, well I’m almost speechless at how up and down they’ve been this year. It’s quite remarkable. But perhaps, with Antoine Dupont and Wenceslas Lauret starting to transform club form to the international stage, there’s an 80 minute performance in them and they’ll make it tough for Ireland in Dublin,” predicted Andrew.
“England will host Italy needing to both consolidate but also use their resource wisely. They need to win the big moments and play a game that has both their footballing and handling skills at the fore.
“One thing that I think has been telling; without Mako and Maro in that side England lose so much at the collision. Billy Vunipola also struggles and gets isolated when his two Saracens mates aren’t alongside him and hopefully Maro will return and see England home in a display that will be judged just as much by its quality of rugby as its dominance of scoreline.”
Once again, Planet Rugby thanks Rob for his time and will be back next week to examine the evidence of Round Four of the 2019 Six Nations.
Rob Andrew MBE was a world-class fly-half in the colours of Wasps, Newcastle Falcons, England and the British and Irish Lions. He won 71 caps for England and five for the Lions, for whom he masterminded a series win in Australia in 1989. After leaving the RFU in 2016, Andrew, who has scored a first class century at Trent Bridge, moved sports in 2017 and is now the CEO at Sussex County Cricket Club.