Analysis: Turnover ball in Auckland

Our analyst Sam Larner returns this week and is looking at what killed the Wallabies at Eden Park last weekend; New Zealand‘s turnover ball.

If you find yourself playing a child at a sport or a board game, perhaps at a family gathering or with your own children, it’s commonly accepted that you shouldn’t crush them with your greater speed, strength or intelligence.

If you play an eight year old at chess, unless they’re a prodigy, you probably want to keep the game going and don’t just identify a weakness and grind them down. How often do you see that in local rugby games? The opposition might have a full-back who has been dispatched to the depths of the defence despite clear flaws when it comes to catching the high ball, but how many teams will constantly expose this weakness at the expense of humiliating the full-back? I’d wager not many, they will get bored of utilising the same tactics time after time.

If taking it easy against a kid is one extreme then the All Blacks are on the far end of the scale, they would aim to win the chess match in as few moves as possible, maybe even lying to the kid about what each of the pieces do. They are ruthlessly efficient and brutal in their execution. They find the weak link and exploit it time after time, there’s no room for sentiment as the same players are targeted constantly. We know that New Zealand are masters of the turnover ball but what is less clear is how they use turnover ball to exploit mismatches in the opposition defence.

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This isn’t a turnover but this is a reclaimed kick and we have broken field. The Australian forwards are packed into one area and are primed to be exploited by a fast All Black attack. If you watch closely you can see that fly-half Bernard Foley, full-back Dane Haylett-Petty and scrum-half Will Genia are all out of the defensive line, although their defensive impact individually might be limited they would have provided some organisation for the defensive line.

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That all leads to this outcome, a structured All Blacks attacking line running against two front-row players and a winger. Far side winger Marika Koroibete is in no man’s land, he can’t really drift – he does that and he leaves Scott Sio in a great big pit that he can’t get out of, but if he doesn’t drift then it’s one more pass to Waisake Naholo and the same result. The All Blacks don’t score from this but they’ve gained significant yardage and it’s only a matter of time before they get the try.

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The try comes on the first phase and this is another case of identifying a weakness and exploiting it. Beauden Barrett sees lock Izack Rodda and Lukhan Tui defending a little too far apart and Barrett hits the gap for an easy try. It started with a back attacking a forward in open field and it finished in the same way.

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This is a true turnover coming from an Australian mistake. Jordie Barrett tries to attack the blind side but there’s not much space there and he ends up just taking contact.

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This might look familiar? Once again it’s Sio and Allan Alaalatoa who are hung out to dry in the midfield. Alaalatoa tries his best to get into Jack Goodhue’s face and make himself big but this is straight forward rugby at its most basic. The All Blacks don’t score from this phase but they do score from the next one after completely destroying the defence.

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This is similar to the previous example, the ball is dropped in the midfield and New Zealand are able to turn defense into attack.

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The area to attack is back towards the near side. Yes Michael Hooper rushes out of the line and that creates gaps but he only does that because there’s not an option to drift as he has the entire front-row on the inside. Hooper gets back to make the tackle but the offload is on and then Koroibete misses the next tackle. The front-row can’t get across to influence the defence and it’s all on the shoulders of Koroibete and Hooper. The try ends up not counting but it’s another example of how the All Blacks find a weakness and then exploit it.

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We don’t have a turnover here but we do have a string of Australian forwards defending in key positions. The first defender is prop Tom Robertson, then replacement lock Rob Simmons, then the other two replacement front-row players Sekope Kepu and Folau Fainga’a. The threat to the Wallabies is out wide, starting lock Adam Coleman is the next defender after the collection of props, which explains why Kepu comes storming out to cut down the outside options. Unfortunately, this is a case of poor situational awareness by Kepu. The prop cannot hare out of the line and create a dogleg when the defenders behind him are a lock and a front-row and the attacker is fly-half Barrett. You can also see, as with the previous example featuring Hooper, the captain is sprinting out of the line to close down the space and limit the defensive vulnerabilities on the far side of the pitch, unfortunately this has the effect of preventing Barrett from passing the ball and forces him to cleave through the glaring hole instead.

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The last example again comes from a turnover and again features Simmons and Hooper. As soon as the turnover happens, the only thing on TJ Perenara’s mind is to whip the ball out to a playmaker, Damian McKenzie, which misses out all of the forwards stood in the way. If the ball gets there in two passes then maybe Simmons gets some support from the inside, but Perenara throws a strike straight too McKenzie and the Aussie lock just can’t cover the amount of ground he’s asked to cover. Hooper gets a little ahead of himself and begins to drift when possibly the preferable thing to do would be to hold tight and ensure Simmons has outside support, that is sticking plaster on a dam wall though, if Hooper stays put it’s a three on one on the outside.

Conclusion

Going back to the strained chess metaphors I used at the start, in chess you have your pawns which can do very little and can be easily picked off by the more powerful pieces. When the All Blacks won turnover ball they were able to manipulate the play so that they were facing a board of pawns. It’s not possible to set up an effective attacking structure that, over multiple phases, remains; forward, back, forward, back etc. When the ball goes from one side of the pitch to the other the forwards are less able to get there than the backs. If you then lose the ball and the opposition can send it back across the pitch you are likely to be attacking the ranks of forwards. The only ways to stop this are to keep hold of the ball, drop fewer men into the backfield and instead rush them up into the defensive line, or play an opposition who can’t move the ball quickly enough to exploit your weakness – unfortunately the All Blacks are not that team. Australia’s remaining games will be against teams who aren’t likely to steal the ball as much or be able to identify and attack the weak spot as quickly.

The truth though is that the Bledisloe Cup isn’t going to reside in Australia when each turnover sees you stood inside your own 22 at best and in a huddle behind your own posts at worst.