Analysis: Impact of yellow cards in Premiership Final

Our analyst Sam Larner returns to Planet Rugby and this week reflects on the impact of the two yellow cards issued in the Premiership Final between Exeter Chiefs and Saracens.

For many people the outcome of the Premiership final was clear before the players took to the pitch. Saracens have been virtually unstoppable this season and it is hard seeing any team opening their cheque books enough to challenge next season.

There is a good chance that Sarries will continue their unstoppable march to Premiership glory, flanked once more by Exeter, next season. However, this article isn’t concerned with that, instead we look at the two sin-bin periods for either team early in the game.

When I was growing up, a yellow card seemed to be seen the same as a try. Concede a yellow card and a try, or at least a few penalties, would follow in the next 10 minutes. Those days are largely over, a yellow card is not a good thing to get, but if you’re one of the top sides you’re likely to escape just conceding a couple of points.

You might even have a positive outcome against weaker opposition. In the US, there is the phenomenon of the make-up call, it’s not restricted to US of course but it has a name there; it is the ropey decision by a ref which is made to favour a team who suffered from a rubbish decision previously.

Michael Lopez, Director of Data and Analytics at the NFL, identified that Ice Hockey teams who conceded more penalties early on were penalised less as the game progressed. Not only that, but teams which were heavily penalised in the first period of the game and subsequently penalised less in the following two, won more games overall. Maybe it is better to take the hit early in exchange for a power play situation later in the game?

If teams are so good at defending with 14 men, what happened in the final? The two best teams in the Premiership by some margin, two of the teams we would expect to be best able to cope with going down to 14 men both conceded two tries each during the time they were missing a player. What went wrong for each team?

Saracens scored from the very next play after Henry Slade was sin-binned. They were already only a few metres from the line and the kick to the corner was the natural option. As you can see, the Chiefs all fly around the outside of the ruck and that means that Sarries have virtually nothing in their way. They add some backs in to finish the job, which they can do with impunity due to the Exeter yellow card, and it’s a frighteningly easy try.

No matter which position the yellow carded player was in, there is always a decision to be made about how many players you put in subsequent scrums. Exeter decided to drop Matt Kvesic from their defensive scrums when Slade went off. By removing the number eight you lose some structural stability in the middle of the scrum but you keep your props wedged in and keep the two defenders who are able to break off the scrum most quickly in place. Exeter decide to drop Nic White into a more defensive position rather than chasing him round the back of the scrum. The problem is that it’s all very passive. Sarries get the shove on, get outside of White and crash over the gainline. That puts pressure on Exeter and they give away a penalty which Owen Farrell converts.

This is the first phase of the second try Saracens score in the sin-bin period. Once again Exeter drop Kvesic and put him in the first receiver defensive position. You might think that Saracens would therefore attack away from him and try and seek out a weak link. They don’t, they run straight at him from the back of the scrum and tie him in for at least the following phase.

Saracens continue moving across the pitch at speed and that culminates in a try for Ben Spencer when he dummies the ball to the outside and sneaks in through the gap left at the side of the ruck. You might think that losing just a single player wouldn’t make a big impact on a team’s defensive ability, but it does when the opposition is attacking at speed. The quicker you attack, the less time the defence has to react and adjust. Exeter simply reached the limit where they didn’t have enough men in defensive positions to stop the attack. After their fantastic start to the game, Exeter conceded 13 points in that sin-bin period, that would be crucial later on.

Very similar to Saracens, Exeter score almost immediately after Saracens receive the yellow card. It’s not quite as straightforward as the Saracens maul but it’s just a case of continuous pick and goes. Dave Ewers eventually flops over the line.

Just before Maro Itoje comes back on, Saracens have a scrum on their own 22. They add Liam Williams into the scrum to make it eight. Exeter clearly identify that this is a weakness and go for the shove. Unfortunately they do it too soon and Saracens get the free kick. Itoje’s yellow card is done and so Saracens could ask for a scrum and get their flanker back on the pitch. They don’t though, they decide to kick it deep, it can’t go straight into touch as the free kick is outside the 22. Exeter collect and Saracens now have to defend with 14 when they could have evened up the numbers.

The Saracens forwards have been asked to do a lot of defending over the last 10 minutes. The Exeter game plan was not that expansive during the sin bin and so the forwards were forced to make a lot of tackles. That appeared to catch up on them. Jack Nowell spotted a gap between the tiring Will Skelton and his lock colleague George Kruis and although this didn’t directly result in a try, the break ultimately led to the five-pointer by Jonny Hill a few phases later.

Conclusion

Saracens conceded 13 points during their yellow card period, Exeter conceded 12. The yellow card for Slade let Saracens back into the game at a time when Exeter were dominating and the yellow card for Itoje allowed Exeter a foothold when they were slipping behind. I doubt much post-match analysis will be done on this game by either team but the coaches will be disappointed by their team’s ability to shut it down when they dropped to 14 men. Both teams made errors which contributed to their poor sin bin performance. Of course, you can expect this to be a bigger focus for both sides in pre-season, that might be another weakness they iron out in the pursuit of yet more domination next season.

by Sam Larner